December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Some saggy bo......err troughs on the JMA.

 

 

It's on the same basic page though not as pretty.  I can't figure out what word you were going for in your post.

[FroYoBro]

It's on the same basic page though not as pretty.  I can't figure out what word you were going for in your post.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=boobs

[TT-SEA]

PDX is going to be well over 7 inches of rain for December by morning... maybe 8 inches.    Normal for the entire month is 5.49 inches.

 

SEA is well above their monthly normal rainfall as well.

 

Something tells me that the second half of December is going to be WAY drier than the first half.

[jcmcgaffey]

It's a bit of a long shot but Seattle has 2 1/2 hours to one-up Portland's rain total yesterday. So far at 2".

[Front Ranger]

PDX is going to be well over 7 inches of rain for December by morning... maybe 8 inches.    Normal for the entire month is 5.49 inches.

 

SEA is well above their monthly normal rainfall as well.

 

Something tells me that the second half of December is going to be WAY drier than the first half.

 

Then that means it will almost have to be much colder as well...

 

[TT-SEA]

HRRR shows heavy rain ending at 3 a.m. around Seattle and at 6 a.m. for Portland.

[TT-SEA]

Then that means it will almost have to be much colder as well...

 

 

 

Yes it does... that will not be hard to accomplish.   Even a little warmer than normal would be WAY colder.

[FroYoBro]

HRRR shows heavy rain ending at 3 a.m. around Seattle and at 6 a.m. for Portland.

Yikes. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is running close to +7 right now.    Going to be a seriously warm first half of the month.     The next week is not exactly cold... GFS MOS shows low 50s for the next few days.

 

Last December ended up at +5.2.   This month should end up a little colder unless we manage another warm spike towards the end.

[Deweydog]

Rain?

Been fairly light for the last few hours. Seems to be getting its ducks back in a row now though.

[Front Ranger]

Some ridiculous rain over the Strait of Juan de Fuca right now.

[catnip]

Off the chart.

[bainbridgekid]

Some ridiculous rain over the Strait of Juan de Fuca right now.

Port Angeles through Victoria and up to the San Juans are getting blasted.

 

[MikeInEverett]

The Snohomish river was forecasted to get up to maybe 26 feet last night. The forecast has now went all the way up to 31.8 feet in one night.http://www.water.weather.gov/resources/hydrographs/snaw1_hg.png

[snow_wizard]

The WRF leaves little doubt any precip from that low next Wednesday would be snow in the Seattle area.  It indicates cold air well entrenched at hour 180.

[Front Ranger]

The WRF leaves little doubt any precip from that low next Wednesday would be snow in the Seattle area.  It indicates cold air well entrenched at hour 180.

 

Too bad there's no model agreement on that.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of ensemble members getting into the -8 to -10 range now.  looking better.

[snow_wizard]

Too bad there's no model agreement on that.

 

Not yet at least.  Obviously details will change.

[Front Ranger]

Not yet at least.  Obviously details will change.

 

Details sure, but it will take more than that to change in the other models for there to be any lowland snow at 180 hours or before.

 

The models are a hot mess right now. AGW clearly to blame.

[snow_wizard]

52 users online right now.  People are beginning to get interested.  

[snow_wizard]

Details sure, but it will take more than that to change in the other models for there to be any lowland snow at 180 hours or before.

 

The models are a hot mess right now. AGW clearly to blame.

 

It seems the GFS is onto something with this.  It has been very consistent, but we shall see I guess.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It seems the GFS is onto something with this.  It has been very consistent, but we shall see I guess.

I can't even tell you how many time the GFS locked onto something and 3 to 5 days out it goes to hell. It is fun to see but honestly is not really believable ... yet.  Once all the models have locked in and agree then maybe...

[Front Ranger]

It seems the GFS is onto something with this.  It has been very consistent, but we shall see I guess.

 

For one day? We shall see indeed...but there's no logical reason to have any confidence in any solution beyond 5 days right now.

[TT-SEA]

I can't even tell you how many time the GFS locked onto something and 3 to 5 days out it goes to hell. It is fun to see but honestly is not really believable ... yet. Once all the models have locked in and agree then maybe...

I can just see the post in 2-3 days... talking about how disappointing it is that the GFS turned warmer and then it will be onto the next tease 12 days out. We shall see.

[luvssnow_spokane]

For one day? We shall see indeed...but there's no logical reason to have any confidence in any solution beyond 5 days right now.

To be fair it has been fairly consistent for more than a day and showing a cold evolution for some time. Just sayin.  But I agree with you!

[TT-SEA]

To be fair it has been fairly consistent for more than a day and showing a cold evolution for some time. Just sayin.  But I agree with you!

 

 

Until I see the real deal on the ECMWF within 8 days... there is no reason to get excited.

 

I will say the 12Z ECMWF was pretty chilly for next Wednesday... but it was transitory.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO HR 96 low in Bering near Shemya is 925mb, even lower than 00z GFS and 30mb lower than 12z EURO shows! WOW. Might be trending towards GFS. Next 2 frames will verifiy that or not. It actually bombs from 975mb to 925mb in 24 hours! WOW 50mb

[Guest Winterdog]

I can just see the post in 2-3 days... talking about how disappointing it is that the GFS turned warmer and then it will be onto the next tease 12 days out. We shall see.

It's kind of like looking forward to a nice long road trip. Half the fun is thinking about it and looking at the brochures while sitting on the can. We all know what a long shot these events are. And we all know who will be the first guy to put up a graphic showing a warm up.

[TT-SEA]

Holy crap... the 00Z ECMWF shows a dry afternoon on Friday!     A little warmer than the 12Z run at that time... but much drier.  

[MikeInEverett]

ECMWF Hour 120...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_6.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Low is definitely further west compared to previous EURO runs holding back in the Bering through HR 120. Trending towards GFS no doubt about it. 500mb anomaly much stronger than any previous run. No idea if by HR 192-240 if it's going to look like the GFS, but it is trending that way through day 5-7.

[TT-SEA]

The 850mb temp at 150 hours is a little warmer on the 00Z run of the ECMWF than on its 12Z run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hr 168 dramatically different than 12z
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120900/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

[TT-SEA]

Hr 168 dramatically different than 12z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120900/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

Here was the 12Z run... does not look crazy different:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120812!!chart.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 192 not as good as GFS, but worlds better than previous runs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120900/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

[Gradient Keeper]

 

Hr 168 dramatically different than 12z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120900/ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

Here was the 12Z run... does not look crazy different:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120812!!chart.gif

 

Baby steps.. the differences are very noticable

[TT-SEA]

HR 192 not as good as GFS, but worlds better than previous runs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015120900/ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

 

Here is the 12Z run... 

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120812!!chart.gif

[Front Ranger]

The Canadian and Euro are definitely closer to each other than the GFS, that's for sure.

[TT-SEA]

The Canadian and Euro are definitely closer to each other than the GFS, that's for sure.

 

 

No doubt.   00Z ECMWF goes nowhere.   At least it will turn drier!  

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120900!!chart.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-10 not where we want it to be, but it trended towards the GFS day 5-7 especially handling the massive Bering low and holding back energy towards Siberian Coast. The key driver in everything. IF the GFS solution is correct the EURO will improve soon. I'm going to say it will.