December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Day 8-10 not where we want it to be, but it trended towards the GFS day 5-7 especially handling the massive Bering low and holding back energy towards Siberian Coast. The key driver in everything. IF the GFS solution is correct the EURO will improve soon.

 

 

Fairly confident that its not right and the ECMWF will not improve.   And even the ECMWF will likely trend a little warmer.    The GFS will just cave all at once.  

[DareDuck]

Tim what kind of pattern do you want right now? I understand it's been wet up there, but the Cascades still need a lot more snow.

[Front Ranger]

Fairly confident that its not right and the ECMWF will not improve.   And even the ECMWF will likely trend a little warmer.    The GFS will just cave all at once.  

 

Not sure how you have any confidence in any model right now. There were actually some pretty significant differences in this Euro run from the last. And the one before that.

 

Again...zero reason to put faith in any solution past day 5 at this point. Good or bad. Ensembles are also all over the place.

 

Just have to wait it out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Fairly confident that its not right and the ECMWF will not improve.   And even the ECMWF will likely trend a little warmer.    The GFS will just cave all at once.  

Really? even though it clearly trended towards the GFS through day 5-7, and Anchorage NWS forecasters think the CMC/EURO may trend towards the GFS. It all hinges on where the massive Bering low goes, how deep it gets, and holding the energy back near the Siberian Coast. You almost seem to be ignoring that and cheering for warmth. Sure, you could be right. I prefer to be cautiously optimistic. If it didn't handle the Bering low the same as GFS I wouldn't be saying anything. That massive 925mb low will buckle the entire pattern and pump up an amplified ridge/block, but it has to remain over the western Bering. My guess is the GFS is reading the pattern recognition and upper air better than the CMC/EURO. It's a showdown, and neither model is backing down right now. We don't obviously have a trend either way. Which model blinks first? I guess we'll see.

[TT-SEA]

Tim what kind of pattern do you want right now? I understand it's been wet up there, but the Cascades still need a lot more snow.

Looks like snow will come to the Cascades in the next week... I like that. I would love a cold and snowy pattern at my house for the next 6 weeks. But my preferences are meaningless when looking at the models and the pattern objectively. No ECMWF support so there is nothing to get amped about yet.

[van city]

Rob, model count down please...

[Gradient Keeper]

Rob, model count down please...

Seriously lol? okay.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up................

*6z NAM in 27 minutes

Tomorrow morning......

6z GFS in 2 hours 10 minutes

Later in the morning...

12z NAM in 6 hours 27 minutes

12z GFS in 8 hours 10 minutes

12z GEM in 8 hours 40 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 32 minutes

 

Will the models blink tomorrow morning? GFS trend towards the less than friendly CMC/EURO? or will they join the darkside and bury the PNW in Snow? ... You could cut the tension with a butter knife right now....

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is certainly better than the last couple of runs.  Looks a lot like the cold snap we had last month.

[snow_wizard]

Really? even though it clearly trended towards the GFS through day 5-7, and Anchorage NWS forecasters think the CMC/EURO may trend towards the GFS. It all hinges on where the massive Bering low goes, how deep it gets, and holding the energy back near the Siberian Coast. You almost seem to be ignoring that and cheering for warmth. Sure, you could be right. I prefer to be cautiously optimistic. If it didn't handle the Bering low the same as GFS I wouldn't be saying anything. That massive 925mb low will buckle the entire pattern and pump up an amplified ridge/block, but it has to remain over the western Bering. My guess is the GFS is reading the pattern recognition and upper air better than the CMC/EURO. It's a showdown, and neither model is backing down right now. We don't obviously have a trend either way. Which model blinks first? I guess we'll see.

 

Yeah...I sure don't see any reason to think the ECMWF would trend warmer even if the GFS backs off a bit.  

[TT-SEA]

Yeah...I sure don't see any reason to think the ECMWF would trend warmer even if the GFS backs off a bit.  

 

 

ECMWF trended warmer in November in the home stretch.

 

We also were talking about some phantom cold snap for this week awhile back and you said the same thing... and yet it trended warmer and now we will have highs in the low 50s the rest of the week.  

[BLI snowman]

Up to about 8" of rain on the month now. Would love to go for an even 20" this month.

[TT-SEA]

Up to about 8" of rain on the month now. Would love to go for an even 20" this month.

 

 

Not too likely.   

 

The only thing that is pretty clear is that the next couple weeks will be much drier.     Pretty much inevitable at this point.

[BLI snowman]

Not too likely.   

 

The only thing that is pretty clear is that the next couple weeks will be much drier.     Pretty much inevitable at this point.

 

Still looks quite wet the next 5 days first. After the 13th all bets are off, but a drydown is pretty inevitable after this craziness.

[Deweydog]

Still looks quite wet the next 5 days first. After the 13th all bets are off, but a drydown is pretty inevitable after this craziness.

Lucky for us top-tier Arctic outbreaks are fairly dry.

[DareDuck]

Looks like snow will come to the Cascades in the next week... I like that. I would love a cold and snowy pattern at my house for the next 6 weeks. But my preferences are meaningless when looking at the models and the pattern objectively. No ECMWF support so there is nothing to get amped about yet.

Yea I wasn't calling you out or anything, just curious. Despite a good week coming up, an extended dry period would be more harmful than beneficial. Well except for those dealing with flooding right now.

[Tyler Mode]

Putting the rain into perspective...we've had more rain in 8 days than we did in May, June, July, August and September combined.

7.00" in BG as of 12:05 AM today.  Lots of street flooding and water flowing up out of manhole covers which I've never seen in person.

[Brennan]

What were the upper levels like January 23rd-30th in 2002? i had a few day period from 1/25-1/29 with I think 14" of snow near Bellingham. It wasn't all that cold, but there was a decent amount of moisture and all of it fell as snow after the initial rain to snow on Friday 1/25/2002... That was actually the only time I ever experienced thunder snow. I watched the temp drop from 40 with heavy mix to 32 with heavy snow in 15 minutes... Anyways, i'm curious if that was a transitory pattern and what was going on with the PV. Thanks!

 

Btw I live and die by the GFS. Despite what people have said lately, i think the GFS over the past couple of winters has actually led the way during our cold spells.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z has begun... Will the GFS remain consistent of its handling of the massive Bering low and ridge/block? or will it back off trend more towards the CMC/EURO. We don't have a trend for either solution right now, definitely no model continuity/agreement. Confidence is lowest for a cold solution, but when isn't it. We'll see.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z not as strong or amplified with the block, cold PDX maybe -8c 850s, but not arctic cold Gorge/eastside. It may be trending towards the CMC/EURO. Unsure won't know until 12z or we establish a trend towards this. Pattern after day 8-10 looks nothing close to the EURO/CMC though.

[Gradient Keeper]

We just had a significant squall move through PDX/Vancouver metro with the cold front. Velocities showed rapidly increasing winds aloft and there was a burst of very strong winds 40-50mph multiple power flashes all over the sky. Brief but packed a heck of a punch!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just looked at 00z EURO Ensembles and day 7-10 500mb is a lot better looking than the operational for sure.

 

6z GFS Ensembles 500mb pattern is also much better than the operational.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Now over 23,000 without power due to that squall, far more than at any point last night

County Outages Customers Affected
Clackamas 138 8671
Columbia 4 5
Marion 8 224
Multnomah 120 14439
Polk --- ---
Washington 30 827
Yamhill 4 78

 

Last Updated December 09, 2015 4:10 a.m.

[TT-SEA]

Schools closed here due to flooding.   

 

Looks like the river has crested out here though... a little lower than expected.   Probably because the mountains did not get as warm as expected and then started cooling off yesterday evening.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is now running at +7.4 for the month... PDX is at +5.2 including a +18 yesterday.

 

Astoria is at +9.0

 

 

As we said in late November... at least December does not look torchy!  

 

Obviously the departures will come down the rest of the month but this warm first 1/3rd of the month sure did overachieve.   Not sure how we missed that in late November.   I also think the departures coming up will not be as negative as some hope unless we manage to get into another inversion period.

[Gradient Keeper]

Anchorage NWS Forecast Discussion. They are leaning towards the stronger/western solution with handling of the very deep low in the Bering Sea. This is a key player in how well the ridge develops/amplifies over the Gulf of Alaska. Then key player #2 next week is another very deep low and that helps to prop up the ridge rebuilding it near the central Aleutians after the first cold trough has moved over us this weekend. We want that low as well to hang back into the Bering(As colder solutions showed) Cautiously optimistic.

 

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKST WED DEC 9 2015

 

OUT WEST...A RAPIDLY EVOLVING LOW (CURRENTLY JUST A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE EAST CHINA SEA) WILL INTERACT WITH A 140+ KNOT JET STREAK AND RAPIDLY APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY. *MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A DEEP SOLUTION (927-933 MB) THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.* WITH MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ACCOMMODATE LARGE SWATHS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 45 FT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THESE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO JUMP ON BOARD JUST YET BUT A CONTINUING TREND OF UPPING WINDS IN THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AS MODELS GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE OUTLIER AS IT WRAPS UP MUCH QUICKER WITH A STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET. **HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD AND A LOT OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD.

[crf450ish]

DJ- Did you pull an all nighter?

[Gradient Keeper]

DJ- Did you pull an all nighter?

Yeah. Tracked the crazy squall line here, and been promoting album. 12z GFS in 38 minutes!

[TT-SEA]

Thanks for all the analysis Rob. We might disagree on how this will evolve but the detailed analysis is greatly appreciated!

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks for all the analysis Rob. We might disagree on how this will evolve but the detailed analysis is greatly appreciated!

No problem at all.

[crf450ish]

It's supposed to snow here tomorrow, about an inch or so. Then overcast Thursday with a daytime high of 35, which is good, wont allow all that much snow to melt. On Saturday apparently were supposed to receive 3-5" of snow W/ a high of 32. I shall see what happens, it would be nice to see more then 2" in one event....

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS has begun...

Will the GFS stick to its guns or will it trend unfavorably. All eyes over the Bering Sea for both key players this weekend and next week. C'mon block!!! We also need to watch very closely if the WRF shows secondary development Thursday for wind potential.

[Jbolin]

12z GFS has begun...

Will the GFS stick to its guns or will it trend unfavorably. All eyes over the Bering Sea for both key players this weekend and next week. C'mon block!!! We also need to watch very closely if the WRF shows secondary development Thursday for wind potential.

Double cold core low has a nice ring to it don't ya think?

[snow_wizard]

We just had a significant squall move through PDX/Vancouver metro with the cold front. Velocities showed rapidly increasing winds aloft and there was a burst of very strong winds 40-50mph multiple power flashes all over the sky. Brief but packed a heck of a punch!

 

We had the exact same thing here.  Pretty rare to have an event like that be so widespread.  The wind was out of an unusual direction (for here) so it made an absolute mess of our yard with huge branches down.  I will be really surprised if this doesn't lead to a pretty major cold snap in the near future.  It just reeks of 2006.

[snow_wizard]

 

Anchorage NWS Forecast Discussion. They are leaning towards the stronger/western solution with handling of the very deep low in the Bering Sea. This is a key player in how well the ridge develops/amplifies over the Gulf of Alaska. Then key player #2 next week is another very deep low and that helps to prop up the ridge rebuilding it near the central Aleutians after the first cold trough has moved over us this weekend. We want that low as well to hang back into the Bering(As colder solutions showed) Cautiously optimistic.

 

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

455 AM AKST WED DEC 9 2015

 

OUT WEST...A RAPIDLY EVOLVING LOW (CURRENTLY JUST A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE EAST CHINA SEA) WILL INTERACT WITH A 140+ KNOT JET STREAK AND RAPIDLY APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY. *MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A DEEP SOLUTION (927-933 MB) THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.* WITH MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ACCOMMODATE LARGE SWATHS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 45 FT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THESE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO JUMP ON BOARD JUST YET BUT A CONTINUING TREND OF UPPING WINDS IN THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AS MODELS GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE OUTLIER AS IT WRAPS UP MUCH QUICKER WITH A STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET. **HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD AND A LOT OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD.

 

 

I guess the GFS pwned the ECMWF this time.  It does happen!

[crf450ish]

The system that was over western WA at 5am this morning is now already over Sandpoint, Coeur D' Alene, and St. Maries ID. It moved over me at 6:20ish-7isham when I was getting the kids ready for school. Extremely fast moving system...Wind gusts up to near 80mph on some the ridge peaks..

[crf450ish]

http://i.imgur.com/m6Nrxri.gif

[TT-SEA]

I guess the GFS pwned the ECMWF this time.  It does happen!

 

 

What are you talking about??   Nothing has happened yet.

[Timmy]

My gosh, Kptv is doing an helicopter shot from Vernonia... Devastating.

[TT-SEA]

Drove down to North Bend to check out the flooding... nothing too serious.   About the same as what happened in November.     I was able to drive my car through everything.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/xxn2t8g4h/2015_12_09_07_58_37.jpg

 

 

http://s27.postimg.org/uoizkj8pv/2015_12_09_07_57_59.jpg

 

http://s1.postimg.org/7hswrdmdb/2015_12_09_07_57_34.jpg

[snow_wizard]

What are you talking about??   Nothing has happened yet.

 

I was referring to the way the ECMWF has trended toward the GFS on handling the all important Bering Sea low.