December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow72.180.0000.gif

Even better than last run.

[Deweydog]

Did the GFS change????

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMC MUCH improved. Not arctic, but Far colder than previous runs. Nice cold/offshore flow.

[TT-SEA]

Even better than last run.

I see the problem now... that is warm front snow. I had not looked at the details. The WRF struggles with warm front snow.

[TT-SEA]

00z CMC MUCH improved. Not arctic, but Far colder than previous runs. Nice cold/offshore flow.

 

 

Very nice... and so different than the other models.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Very nice... and so different than the other models.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

Yessir. Persistent cold pool eastside too. Real potential

[Front Ranger]

Models are still lost past day 5.

 

But the overall trend I'm seeing is the blocking ridge just isn't able to amplify enough up into the eastern Aleutians/Alaska. Keeps getting squashed by all the energy in the Bering Sea. Which means odds of a Arctic outbreak in the PNW remain low. 

 

Certainly doesn't mean there couldn't be some lowland snow, this pattern could easily allow for multiple bouts of that for some places.

[snow_wizard]

Certainly a mixed bag of news tonight.  Much better looking on the GEM, not nearly as pretty on the long range GFS, but still decent for much of next week.  The WRF inidcates lowland snow on Monday and then again Wednesday morning.  The operational indicates lowland snow again late next week as another batch of decently cold air settles in.  Tons of potential.  Interestingly the GEM puts us in a position for more possible cold after day 10.  It will be most interesting to see what the ECMWF shows tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS ENS 850mb mean No improvement, but didn't worsen either.

[snow_wizard]

Models are still lost past day 5.

 

The general theme of Western troughing is really emerging though.

[TT-SEA]

Certainly a mixed bag of news tonight.  Much better looking on the GEM, not nearly as pretty on the long range GFS, but still decent for much of next week.  The WRF inidcates lowland snow on Monday and then again Wednesday morning.  The operational indicates lowland snow again late next week as another batch of decently cold air settles in.  Tons of potential.  Interestingly the GEM puts us in a position for more possible cold after day 10.  It will be most interesting to see what the ECMWF shows tonight.

 

 

Probably something like this... since the Canadian went in that direction.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Models are still lost past day 5.

Yeah about that. I see pretty solid agreement through HR 120-144, then a lot of uncertainty beyond HR 144-156 how to handle energy moving off Asia, Bering Low #2, amplification of ridge, etc.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS ENS 850mb mean No improvement, but didn't worsen either.

 

It is nice to see the mean line below the normal line from about the 12th to the end.  A good 10 days.

[Front Ranger]

The general theme of Western troughing is really emerging though.

 

Yeah, that's been there for awhile. You have the offshore ridge in the general area you want it, and it keeps popping up, but not very amplified.

[Gradient Keeper]

Certainly a mixed bag of news tonight.  Much better looking on the GEM, not nearly as pretty on the long range GFS, but still decent for much of next week.  The WRF inidcates lowland snow on Monday and then again Wednesday morning.  The operational indicates lowland snow again late next week as another batch of decently cold air settles in.  Tons of potential.  Interestingly the GEM puts us in a position for more possible cold after day 10.  It will be most interesting to see what the ECMWF shows tonight.

 

 

Probably something like this... since the Canadian went in that direction.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gif

Am I missing something here? Maybe I'm not following along, but why would you reply to Jim about what the ECMWF might show tonight and mention the Canadian went in that direction with the old run of the EURO(a crappy one at that) when the Canadian tonight is very good. Maybe I'm just tired, but your comment makes no sense to me. It's like you're messing with Jim. Did you post the wrong image?

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Am I missing something here? Maybe I'm not following along, but why would you reply to Jim about what the ECMWF might show tonight and mention the Canadian went in that direction with the old run of the EURO(a crappy one at that) when the Canadian tonight is very good. Maybe I'm just tired, but your comment makes no sense to me. It's like you're messing with Jim. Did you post the wrong image?

 

He meant to do that.  His thrill for the night...

[TT-SEA]

Am I missing something here? Maybe I'm not following along, but why would you reply to Jim about what the ECMWF might show tonight and mention the Canadian went in that direction with the old run of the EURO(a crappy one at that) when the Canadian tonight is very good. Maybe I'm just tired, but your comment makes no sense to me. It's like you're messing with Jim. Did you post the wrong image?

 

 

The 00Z Canadian looks like the 12Z ECMWF

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Am I missing something here? Maybe I'm not following along, but why would you reply to Jim about what the ECMWF might show tonight and mention the Canadian went in that direction with the old run of the EURO(a crappy one at that) when the Canadian tonight is very good. Maybe I'm just tired, but your comment makes no sense to me. It's like you're messing with Jim. Did you post the wrong image?

No, youre not missing anything.  He is messing with Jim.  That, and looking to find any angle possible to downplay any chance of something exciting happening next week. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yet again ENS 500mb anomalies far better than the operational past day 7-10.

[TT-SEA]

No, youre not missing anything.  He is messing with Jim.  That, and looking to find any angle possible to downplay any chance of something exciting happening next week. 

 

 

Not at all... the maps in the post above look very much alike.   Same general pattern.

 

The 00Z Canadian does look like the 12Z ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Tim, it looks like you posted the wrong image initially... no harm, no foul. I see you edited it. All good. My apologies.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, it looks like you posted the wrong image initially... no harm, no foul. I see you edited it. All good. My apologies.

 

 

I did not edit it.   

 

Please stop confusing this.   Look at the maps below.   The 00Z Canadian looks like the 12Z ECMWF.    

 

12Z ECMWF on top... 00Z Canadian on the bottom

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

[Brennan]

That was mostly a maritime cold airmass with the trough axis moving in from the NW. The arctic air largely stayed well to the northeast. Deep trough, it brought valley snow down as far south as Sacramento. Trough impacted us for the normal 3-4 days, there just wasn't a ton of cold air available and the CAA was entirely with onshore flow south of Bellingham. 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0126.php

Received 2” of snow Friday night 1/25/02 (that included thundersnow that dropped the temp from 40 to 32 in the blink of an eye. It warmed into the mid 30’s on Saturday until snow started falling in the late afternoon, and several large snow showers dropped another 4-5 inches that evening. Sunday was cold and clear and I logged a 25-19 daily temp spread. I think either Monday or Tuesday we had another small snowfall, and on Wednesday a transition event with heavy snow. Total accumulation over the period was 14”. I think that’s the last time we had a non arctic pattern drop any sort of  significant snow up this way. One of the most enjoyable events I’ve experienced though... Probably in large part because it was the first real event in 5 years even for here. 

[Front Ranger]

I think DJ's just tired.

 

And Tim's just Tim.

[Gradient Keeper]

I did not edit it.   

 

Please stop confusing this.   Look at the maps below.   The 00Z Canadian looks like the 12Z ECMWF.    

 

12Z ECMWF on top... 00Z Canadian on the bottom

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

Tim, check your initial post... it's a different image. Maybe it just posted wrong.

[Front Ranger]

Received 2” of snow Friday night 1/25/02 (that included thundersnow that dropped the temp from 40 to 32 in the blink of an eye. It warmed into the mid 30’s on Saturday until snow started falling in the late afternoon, and several large snow showers dropped another 4-5 inches that evening. Sunday was cold and clear and I logged a 25-19 daily temp spread. I think either Monday or Tuesday we had another small snowfall, and on Wednesday a transition event with heavy snow. Total accumulation over the period was 14”. I think that’s the last time we had a non arctic pattern drop any sort of  significant snow up this way. One of the most enjoyable events I’ve experienced though... Probably in large part because it was the first real event in 5 years even for here. 

 

I remember 3 separate small snowfalls for a total of 5-6" in Tacoma with that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF is running!

[TT-SEA]

Tim, check your initial post... it's a different image. Maybe it just posted wrong.

 

 

Yes... it was the next day.   Same point about the pattern next week.   I think you so detailed focused that you are missing the fact that the CMC and ECMWF are very similar.

[TT-SEA]

I remember 3 separate small snowfalls for a total of 5-6" in Tacoma with that.

 

I remember being in San Diego during that event and it was wild down there and they even thought snow levels could get down to 1,000 feet (we lived at 1,000 feet down there as well).

 

Lots of hail... but no snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yes... it was the next day.   Same point about the pattern next week.   I think you so detailed focused that you are missing the fact that the CMC and ECMWF are very similar.

If you're comparing the current run of the CMC to the latest ECMWF? beyond day 8 they are nothing remotely close to each other. *Falls asleep*

 

6z NAM in 1 hour 27 minutes!

[TT-SEA]

If you're comparing the current run of the CMC to the latest ECMWF? beyond day 8 they are nothing remotely close to each other. *Falls asleep*

 

6z NAM in 1 hour 27 minutes!

 

 

Comparing in one week.   Are you saying those two maps I posted are not similar?    They are.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hr 96

Bering Low #1 is very strong seems to be weakening slower than previous runs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_5.png

[TT-SEA]

If you're comparing the current run of the CMC to the latest ECMWF? beyond day 8 they are nothing remotely close to each other. *Falls asleep*

 

6z NAM in 1 hour 27 minutes!

 

 

And actually they are pretty similar at day 10 and both show a strange pattern of an elongated and displaced trough from CA to the Midwest.    Details are different but its the same odd set-up.

 

12Z ECMWF

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gif

 

 

Brand new 00Z Canadian

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif

[Brennan]

I remember 3 separate small snowfalls for a total of 5-6" in Tacoma with that.

I am pretty sure quite a bit of the snow I received was elevation dependent. I know it snowed in Bellingham, but nothing like it did at my parents location near Lake Whatcom. Whatever that set up was, I would be happy to have it again. I think with Maritime Polar details have to be perfect. We’ve had several MP airmasses in recent years, but most are either barely too warm, or they aren’t associated with enough moisture to leave more than an inch or two of wet snow that melts an hour later. 

[Brennan]

We aren’t going to see SQUAT in terms of cold/snow as long as the Bering Low is strong and stationary. 

[TT-SEA]

We aren’t going to see SQUAT in terms of cold/snow as long as the Bering Low is strong and stationary. 

 

That thing is a beast.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks to take a mid 970mb low into Vancouver Island this weekend.  That could be fun.  Mini Hanukkah Eve eve storm redo?

[Gradient Keeper]

That thing is a beast.

It really is. A major pattern changer is what it is

 

HR 120 Bering Low #1 much further west along Siberian Coast following the colder GFS solutions.. hmmm let's see what occurs next few frames....

[TT-SEA]

Euro looks to take a mid 970mb low into Vancouver Island this weekend.  That could be fun.  Mini Hanukkah Eve eve storm redo?

 

 

Isn't the air mass too chilly for a good windstorm?  How many windstorms happen with an 850mb temp of -2C in Oregon and in SW BC.   There is no thermal gradient and its snowing down to 2,000 feet.

[Front Ranger]

I think this Euro run will be colder than last. Everything is shifted a bit further west.