December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Brennan]

That thing is a beast.

 

Those crabbers are probably out there risking their lives in that garbage. 933mb low. Can you imagine? 

[Bham_Guy]

I am pretty sure quite a bit of the snow I received was elevation dependent. I know it snowed in Bellingham, but nothing like it did at my parents location near Lake Whatcom. Whatever that set up was, I would be happy to have it again. I think with Maritime Polar details have to be perfect. We’ve had several MP airmasses in recent years, but most are either barely too warm, or they aren’t associated with enough moisture to leave more than an inch or two of wet snow that melts an hour later. 

 

The northwest side of town ended up with about a foot of snow in late January 2002. It was a pretty solid event city wide.

[TT-SEA]

Those crabbers are probably out there risking their lives in that garbage. 933mb low. Can you imagine? 

 

 

Pretty calm in the center!   Just keep the boat in the eye of the storm.   

[stuffradio]

Cliff mass just posted something new. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/12/powerful-drunken-storm-to-hit-northwest.html

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty calm in the center!   Just keep the boat in the eye of the storm.   

Great idea, except I don't think the crab hang out in the eye of the storm.

[Front Ranger]

Cliff mass just posted something new. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/12/powerful-drunken-storm-to-hit-northwest.html

 

Cliff himself may be a bit inebriated there.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe the Saturday storm will be so drunk it comes in over central OR instead with snow for everyone.

[Gradient Keeper]

Cliff mass just posted something new. http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2015/12/powerful-drunken-storm-to-hit-northwest.html

Yeah, 00z WRF shows a nice 985mb low near Forks or so and importantly it isn't weakening upon landfall.. You guys up in Puget Sound/northwest Interior need to keep an eye on this one.

 

00z ECMWF isn't great through HR 192. This run is nothing like the GFS or CMC. Model disagreement and no trend established beyond HR 120-144 continues.

[Brennan]

The northwest side of town ended up with about a foot of snow in late January 2002. It was a pretty solid event city wide.

In town must have done better later in the event. I remember my Mom picking me up from Kulshan Middle School at about 4:30pm on Friday evening after KIDS NIGHT OUT (middle school dance) and it was mix rain/snow at the school. As we drove east it became mostly wet snow, and by the time we were home it was all snow and dumping. We had some family come over the next day to go sledding because there place in town barely received any snow, most of which had already melted during the day. I think the bulk of the snow came on Saturday Night though with probably a secondary low, which all of Whatcom County scored on. Anyways, loved that event. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Even though there is still a persistent, deep cold pool east side/Columbia Basin.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, 00z WRF shows a nice 985mb low near Forks or so and importantly it isn't weakening upon landfall.. You guys up in Puget Sound/northwest Interior need to keep an eye on this one.

 

00z ECMWF isn't great through HR 192. This run is nothing like the GFS or CMC. Model disagreement and no trend established beyond HR 120-144 continues.

ECMWF is basically like it's 12 run.

[TT-SEA]

Even though there is still a persistent, deep cold pool east side/Columbia Basin.

Just going to mention that.

[Bryant]

No, youre not missing anything.  He is messing with Jim.  That, and looking to find any angle possible to downplay any chance of something exciting happening next week. 

Tim in a nutshell right there. But hey, it's what he enjoys... to each his own.

[TT-SEA]

Tim in a nutshell right there. But hey, it's what he enjoys... to each his own.

You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment. And I was adding support for what Rob said was a good Canadian run. It looked like the 12Z ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks very nearly the same as what we saw during Thanksgiving week. A touch colder at 850s east side. That was plenty cold enough with the long duration icy cold east winds.

[Gradient Keeper]

You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment.

The very first initial post the maps didn't look the same.... or am I typing in my sleep again.... It's not worth bickering over for sure.

[Timmy]

Just going to mention that.

Except for I'm pretty sure you are incapable of posting anything positive at this point.

[Front Ranger]

I would say the one trend is for the pattern to be more progressive. That's definitely the direction the Euro and Canadian have gone over the past day.

[TT-SEA]

I would say the one trend is for the pattern to be more progressive. That's definitely the direction the Euro and Canadian have gone over the past day.

Agree.

[High Desert Mat]

Quit teasing me Rob. A deep cold pool east side. I'm in Redmond and last month's event over performed. Maybe another overachiever.

[Gradient Keeper]

Probably something like this... since the Canadian went in that direction.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120912!!chart.gif

This image.... looks nothing like the Canadian, not at any point, ever.... not for years in fact... 

[Bryant]

You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment. And I was adding support for what Rob said was a good Canadian run. It looked like the 12Z ECMWF.

 

It's comical that I can scroll through, see a positive comment from Jim, and just know that you will soon follow along with a typical Tim post. Never fails.

[Gradient Keeper]

I would say the one trend is for the pattern to be more progressive. That's definitely the direction the Euro and Canadian have gone over the past day.

I agree overall, expect 00z CMC wasn't.

[Front Ranger]

Agree.

 

At the end of the Euro, it actually looks like the pattern is resetting again with heights building over the eastern Aleutians and the large-scale troughing moving quickly across the country.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro shows accumulating snows here on Tuesday night.  Maybe a couple of inches, pretty much inline with what the WRF has been showing the past 4 runs. 

[Gradient Keeper]

You are ignoring the fact those maps looked similar. Jim had nothing to do with the comment. And I was adding support for what Rob said was a good Canadian run. It looked like the 12Z ECMWF.

Hey, I could be mistaken.... chalk it up to 1) I'm tired, sleep deprived, and when I sleep, I see computer models dancing in my head. Tha's all. Moving on....

 

6z NAM in 35 minutes!!!

[TT-SEA]

It's comical that I can scroll through, see a positive comment from Jim, and just know that you will soon follow along with a typical Tim post. Never fails.

I said the 00Z ECMWF would probably look like it's 12Z run. And it did. Same basic pattern. Looks like the November event for quite a few runs of the ECMWF. Not negative... just what it's showing.

[Front Ranger]

I agree overall, expect 00z CMC wasn't.

 

The 0z Canadian was definitely pretty funky after day 7, with the way it held back all that energy off the CA coast...unlikely solution, but you're right that it wasn't as progressive with the pattern as the Euro.

[Bryant]

00z GFS backed off on the 10mb stratospheric warming from Eurasia... not happening any time soon

[Bham_Guy]

In town must have done better later in the event. I remember my Mom picking me up from Kulshan Middle School at about 4:30pm on Friday evening after KIDS NIGHT OUT (middle school dance) and it was mix rain/snow at the school. As we drove east it became mostly wet snow, and by the time we were home it was all snow and dumping. We had some family come over the next day to go sledding because there place in town barely received any snow, most of which had already melted during the day. I think the bulk of the snow came on Saturday Night though with probably a secondary low, which all of Whatcom County scored on. Anyways, loved that event. 

 

We picked up about 6 inches on Sunday and then another 6 or so with the overrunning event on Tues/Wed. Like you said, it was the most snow we had seen in several years, so it was pretty enjoyable. BLI did have a 28/17 day on the 28th, which wasn't too bad.

[TT-SEA]

Hey, I could be mistaken.... chalk it up to 1) I'm tired, sleep deprived, and when I sleep, I see computer models dancing in my head. Tha's all. Moving on....

 

6z NAM in 35 minutes!!!

Sometimes we lose sight of the big picture in the details. The ECMWF has been quite consistent. Good shot of cold air and probably offshore flow. Next week looks enjoyable.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF has Bering Low #1 at 927mb. In my opinion that SHOULD promote a stronger, amplified ridge than models are currently grasping. We'll see.......

[MikeInEverett]

18z GFS high temp for Chirstmas: 20

00z GFS high temp for Christmas: 50

Consistently inconsistent

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS backed off on the 10mb stratospheric warming from Eurasia... not happening any time soon

SSW events are something I have limited knowledge of. What would promote this to occur and models to bring it back.

[BLI snowman]

Isn't the air mass too chilly for a good windstorm?  How many windstorms happen with an 850mb temp of -2C in Oregon and in SW BC.   There is no thermal gradient and its snowing down to 2,000 feet.

 

1-13-1950

[DareDuck]

Quit teasing me Rob. A deep cold pool east side. I'm in Redmond and last month's event over performed. Maybe another overachiever.

Thought the same thing when he said it looks like thanksgiving week. I'll gladly take that again.

[Gradient Keeper]

Thought the same thing when he said it looks like thanksgiving week. I'll gladly take that again.

If you can manage 4" of snow or so widespread, who knows..... I'd say right now it won't be as bitterly cold, no.

[Brennan]

We picked up about 6 inches on Sunday and then another 6 or so with the overrunning event on Tues/Wed. Like you said, it was the most snow we had seen in several years, so it was pretty enjoyable. BLI did have a 28/17 day on the 28th, which wasn't too bad.

I will have to dig up my unofficial official records. Now that I rethink it, Sunday was the snowiest day and Monday was the cold and clear day (25-19 @ home, 28-17 @airport). Great event. I’m dreaming of a White Christmas. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Strong frontal passage through the Eugene area. Thunder and W-SW wind gusts 43-51mph!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS
Ridge looks decent, but it's not strong and quickly flattens. Good for the higher elevations and mountains, but not cold enough for snow for us. All I see is cool onshore flow at times. Not a very good run 500mb pattern progression speaking. It is doubtful we would even develop a Columbia Basin cold pool with this pattern. Onto 12z....