December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Nope. Move to Canada!

Think I will stay in WA, but someday I will be moving to the Carlton/Twisp/Winthrop Methow Valley area. My wife and I have settled on that portion of the east slopes.

[Phil]

I can't even remember the last time we had a true SSW's here that resulted in snow. Does anyone have any info on that?

I can think of several. The 2008-09 event stands out, particularly in terms of it's unique evolution. The wave-driving processes behind it were responsible for the December amplification, and the blocking in February. The wave-driving processes behind the 2006-07 and 2009-10 events also delivered for you guys.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

I didn't realize you meant calendar year. That is looking very possible, though I think at least a couple lowlands people on here will see some before we sing Auld Lang Syne (do Canadians do that?).

No, we sing roll out the barrel.

[Tyler Mode]

Some more pics from the tornado today.  I was unable to make it to the east side of Rasmussen because of police activity.  

https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/Battle-Ground-Tornado-121015/

[bainbridgekid]

Snoqualmie is opening Summit West tomorrow.

 

Looks like they got close to 6" today and have a cement like 2 foot base. Must be close to 10" of water content with all the rain and wet snow they got.

[crf450ish]

Think I will stay in WA, but someday I will be moving to the Carlton/Twisp/Winthrop Methow Valley area. My wife and I have settled on that portion of the east slopes.

Those are excellent areas to live. So much to offer in terms of outdoor activities and just serene landscape and of course the weather. However, I would suggest a home that has a wide "treeless" buffer around it.......wildfires. 

[crf450ish]

30 at my house right now with a strong NE breeze. News just said 30% chance of snow but NOAA and WU say 0%, well see. Saturday Should be fun, calling for 3-5"....

 

 

EDIT:  Snowing now....just a dusting already. It snowed like crazy for 5 mins then stopped. Probably going to turn to rain/snow mix then rain fairly soon.

About 30 minutes after I made this post, a very strong easterly gust came through and the power went out. Was out for approx. 6 hours. We took off and when we were on our way back, several Avista Utilities boom trucks and pickups passed us, arrived home to find the power was back on. Snowed about an inch of wet heavy snow before turning to rain later in the day. Still have a dusting left. I hope it freezes hard tonight(not looking like it will as of now) so the next snowfall sticks instantly. 

[westcoastexpat]

Would my Arlington location be northern enough do you think?

 

Maybe, but I was thinking north of Bellingham.

[Phil]

No lala-land 18z GFS talk?

 

Edit: D**n cache. Goes to show how frequently I look at the LR modeling.

[richard mann]

-
Winds yesterday closed some lifts at Mt. Bachelor. But with more than foot of snow with this latest storm, general depth is up to 4 feet. 
 
http://www.ktvz.com/news/wind-topples-trees-rain-closes-mt-bachelor-lift/36884624 / https://www.mtbachelor.com/

[Deweydog]

-

Winds yesterday closed some lifts at Mt. Bachelor. But with more than foot of snow with this latest storm, general depth is up to 4 feet.

 

http://www.ktvz.com/news/wind-topples-trees-rain-closes-mt-bachelor-lift/36884624 / https://www.mtbachelor.com/

Did you type that????

[TT-SEA]

Did you type that????

 

 

I did not even notice who posted it until you mentioned it.   But wow.   Impressively coherent.  

[HighlandExperience]

I did not even notice who posted it until you mentioned it.   But wow.   Impressively coherent.  

 

I always thought Richard was from Mother Russia. 

[DareDuck]

-

Winds yesterday closed some lifts at Mt. Bachelor. But with more than foot of snow with this latest storm, general depth is up to 4 feet. 

 

http://www.ktvz.com/news/wind-topples-trees-rain-closes-mt-bachelor-lift/36884624 / https://www.mtbachelor.com/

 

The rain was the main reason the lifts were closed. They didn't even groom the slopes, had to let the rain drain out of the snow pack. 

 

Edit: Good news is that they have received over 18 inches since yesterday morning when it switched back over from rain. 

[High Desert Mat]

I just listened to Joe Bastardis forecast for the rest of winter today, and lets hope he's not right. Obviously no one can predict weather months ahead of time, that should be enough to keep me optimistic.

 

You can listen to by going to the weatherbell homepage, its on Marks homepage, and click play on the 500mb anomaly maps.

[Gradient Keeper]

A poleward aimed Rossby wave hitting the polar jet.  Wikipedia explains it better than I could. 

 

We can get snow without the aid of a SSW.

Thanks, Chris

[luvssnow_spokane]

-

Winds yesterday closed some lifts at Mt. Bachelor. But with more than foot of snow with this latest storm, general depth is up to 4 feet.

 

http://www.ktvz.com/news/wind-topples-trees-rain-closes-mt-bachelor-lift/36884624 / https://www.mtbachelor.com/

I think that was the first post from you I only had to read through once to understand. Thank you!!

[GHweatherChris]

I think that was the first post from you I only had to read through once to understand. Thank you!!

Seriously?

 

Richard is very easy to understand with any of his posts, you just have to actually read them through.

[High Desert Mat]

Get real Chris, we all know that isn't true.

 

The 00z through hr 180 looks decent for me over here in Redmond. I just want the chilly and semi cold to hold on through Xmas. My mother is visiting from Jamestown NY and I want her to see I actually gets cold here too, (-28f), once in awhile lol.

[GHweatherChris]

Get real Chris, we all know that isn't true.

 

The 00z through hr 180 looks decent for me over here in Redmond. I just want the chilly and semi cold to hold on through Xmas. My mother is visiting from Jamestown NY and I want her to see I actually gets cold here too, (-28f), once in awhile lol.

I haven't had trouble understanding Richard since day one so....

 

And when he posts regularly during winter he is one of if not the most accurate at predicting western cold.

 

And he doesn't cry out for recognition like some when he is right.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168 It's a Christmas miracle. Much better looking ridge, very amplified, further west, nice tilt and configuration. Anomaly looks much better than previous runs too. We'll see how the next few frames look, but so far this looks better.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121100/gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

[liquidsnow]

Hey look at that ridge erecting into Alaska. Yeeeeehawwww boys. Winter is making a comeback for the ages. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

HR 168 It's a Christmas miracle. Much better looking ridge, very amplified, further west, nice tilt and configuration. Anomaly looks much better than previous runs too. We'll see how the next few frames look, but so far this looks better.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121100/gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

Nice but here is my deep thought on this. "Dangling carrots".... We know how those work out... But alas I am finding carrots awfully tempting right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 204
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121100/gfs_z500a_namer_35.png

[Gradient Keeper]

500mb pattern a bit better, 850s only slightly colder so far.

[liquidsnow]

Nice but here is my deep thought on this. "Dangling carrots".... We know how those work out... But alas I am finding carrots awfully tempting right now.

 

Thing is we have to believe my friend. Christmas cheer used to bring snow but now all we see are fights and cynicism. This has been keeping the snow away.

 

Believe is all I ask. The snow deity will reward us.

[Gradient Keeper]

So close to being SNOWY, just need the trough to dig deeper. This is the best run in a long time really. Ridge/pattern is a bit too progressive still, but there is no mistaking that this is a step in the right direction.

[Gradient Keeper]

Thicknesses around 518-520 before day 10. Not bad

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

[GHweatherChris]

So close to being SNOWY, just need the trough to dig deeper. This is the best run in a long time really. Ridge/pattern is a bit too progressive still, but there is no mistaking that this is a step in the right direction.

Cue Tim in 5, 4 ,3 ,2 ,1....

 

Euro lecture coming soon!!

[van city]

So close to being SNOWY, just need the trough to dig deeper. This is the best run in a long time really. Ridge/pattern is a bit too progressive still, but there is no mistaking that this is a step in the right direction.

 

Tim,Tim,Tim,Tim...

[Gradient Keeper]

Cue Tim in 5, 4 ,3 ,2 ,1....

 

Euro lecture coming soon!!

Haha, he might. Yeah 00z GFS could be an outlier, but this isn't an impossible solution either. Even if the trough were to dig deeper and we had a modified blast, it would probably be brief, at least deeper cold air. The low-levels would be cold much longer duration. This run just offers cold NW onshore flow from what I can see. It'll be snowy up at Tim's for sure!

[HighlandExperience]

I just listened to Joe Bastardis forecast for the rest of winter today, and lets hope he's not right. Obviously no one can predict weather months ahead of time, that should be enough to keep me optimistic.

 

You can listen to by going to the weatherbell homepage, its on Marks homepage, and click play on the 500mb anomaly maps.

I didn't listen but Joe Bastardi always seem biased towards the east coast.

[TT-SEA]

Haha, he might. Yeah 00z GFS could be an outlier, but this isn't an impossible solution either. Even if the trough were to dig deeper and we had a modified blast, it would probably be brief, at least deeper cold air. The low-levels would be cold much longer duration. This run just offers cold NW onshore flow from what I can see. It'll be snowy up at Tim's for sure!

 

A nice 2007-08 situation with 2 feet of snow on the ground at my house and nothing just a couple miles away in North Bend.  

[Phil]

I didn't listen but Joe Bastardi always seem biased towards the east coast.

That's because he is.

 

I honestly can't recall him ever issuing a warm winter forecast out this way. Still love the guy.

[Phil]

Haha, he might. Yeah 00z GFS could be an outlier, but this isn't an impossible solution either. Even if the trough were to dig deeper and we had a modified blast, it would probably be brief, at least deeper cold air. The low-levels would be cold much longer duration. This run just offers cold NW onshore flow from what I can see. It'll be snowy up at Tim's for sure!

Lol, I read this post thinking it was Richard because your avatars look similar on my tiny phone screen.

 

Was like..

[luvssnow_spokane]

Lol, I read this post thinking it was Richard because your avatars look similar on my tiny phone screen.

 

Was like..

lol... Well having Richard post two easily coherent post in the same day would be about as miraculous as getting a major arctic and snow event here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lol, I read this post thinking it was Richard because your avatars look similar on my tiny phone screen.

 

Was like..

Well, ' * surmise why you, in that(parenthesis), .....and just with that. *. > to "you" when I say "YOU" with a smaller screen(parenthesis and referring to a screen resolutuion smaller than the average size) *but, and with that you could think that "I", was perhaps

[Phil]

How about some 384hr GFS fun? The 00z run is applying the pinch, trying for the wave-2/PV split.

 

#notgonnahappen #tooearly

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMC pure garbage. Not cold. Just somewhat "chilly" at times.

[GHweatherChris]

Well, ' * surmise why you, in that(parenthesis), .....and just with that. *. > to "you" when I say "YOU" with a smaller screen(parenthesis and referring to a screen resolutuion smaller than the average size) *but, and with that you could think that "I", was perhaps

What is the issue with Richard, seriously.

 

If you actually take the time to read his posts instead of passing judgment you would find that he is incredibly accurate while not using the models at all in his projections of cold air, most of the time weeks out.