TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Ridge is more amplified at HR 192 up over Aleutians/western Alaska compared to previous runs. Still too progressive, but this is another small step in the right direction. Trough bottoms out on Christmas Day on the 00Z GFS with an 850mb temp around -4C. And then the progression train starts up again. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 So a zero chance of a white christmas? Awesome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Too much energy blasting through the Aleutians.... Need that strong low to lift into Bering Sea.... nope, not ideal pattern yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 MM5 still shows about 3 feet of snow at Snoqualmie Pass by the weekend. And Saturday looks like heaven up there... upper 20s with partly cloudy skies and about 6 feet of snow on the slopes. I told my son that they are pretty much guaranteed to be open until March now. Total snow from now until Saturday afternoon... http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Anyone like the long range 00Z Canadian tonight?? http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Anyone like the long range 00Z Canadian tonight?? http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gifNo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Ridge is more amplified at HR 192 up over Aleutians/western Alaska compared to previous runs. Still too progressive, but this is another small step in the right direction.Seems like the baby steps are continuing...by the time it happens we should be good to go! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 NoSeems like the GEM is flopping all over. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Seems like the baby steps are continuing...by the time it happens we should be good to go! No. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 00z is pretty blah Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 No. Yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 No. No. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Tim, you remind me of that kid that always had the cool toys but no one wanted to play with. Kind of strange being that you're an adult now and have kids older than that. Keep being optimistic Rob, most of us love it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 We do have a nice trend with the GFS each run showing a slightly stronger/amplified ridge that isn't being shoved southeast as abruptly, we have bitter air moving into Alaska-Yukon a bit sooner, and a southeast US ridge building before day 10. We have a few nice things that show some promise for the 500mb pattern/cold blast/snow?, but the biggest issue remains the progressive nature of the overall pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Keep being optimistic Rob, most of us love it. Rob is realistic. With a flair for drama! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 I think we will have a model agreement trifecta tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 I think we will have an model agreement trifecta tonight. Agreement on what? So far we are 0 for 2. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 We do have a nice trend with the GFS each run showing a slightly stronger/amplified ridge that isn't being shoved southeast as abruptly, we have bitter air moving into Alaska-Yukon a bit sooner, and a southeast US ridge building before day 10. We have a few nice things that show some promise for the 500mb pattern/cold blast/snow?, but the biggest issue remains the progressive nature of the overall pattern.Sadly, The progressive pattern will most likely be the spoiler. To many carrots... To little meat and potatoes. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 I'm dreaming of a ridgy ChristmasJust like the ones I used to knowWhere the treetops are on fire,and children listenTo hear sleigh bells in the sandI'm dreaming of a warm ChristmasWith every Christmas card I writeMay your days be merry and meanAnd may all your Christmases be green 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Not much hope right now... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Insane... if you add up the total snow on the WRF for the next week it shows about 7 feet at Snoqualmie Pass. And not a flake at my house just 15 minutes away. Skiing nirvana! So great for the resorts. Lining up perfectly for the holiday break. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Waiting anxiously to see if there are any improvements with 00z 850mb Ensembles.... 00z ECMWF begins in 27 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Waiting anxiously to see if there are any improvements with 00z 850mb Ensembles.... 00z ECMWF begins in 27 minutes Let's play the "I expect a ______" game I'll go first, I expect a crappy run with lots of ridging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Let's play the "I expect a ______" game I'll go first, I expect a crappy run with lots of ridging.I have no idea what to expect. I expect absolutely nothing since we don't have a solid trend within all model camps and we're 10 days out. I would like it to more closely follow the GFS and I definitely don't want to see any sign of the GEM solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 00z GFS Ensembles 850mb No improvements and maybe a slight touch warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Agreement on what? So far we are 0 for 2.Agreement on a snowless December and disappointing to a weenie like me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Agreement on a snowless December and disappointing to a weenie like me. I am focusing on the mountains and skiing... and will be happy with any dry day or glimpse of the sun. Small pleasures! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 The pattern is way too progressive right now. We should have a much better opportunity to score in early January.Why will things be better in January? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Why will things be better in January? PV breaks up. A least it will shake things up. We might score at the onset of that change. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 PV breaks up. A least it will shake things up. We might score at the onset of that change. You mean it is forecast to? Is this phil's take? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 You mean it is forecast to? Is this phil's take?Yes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 00Z = Atmospheric river right on time for the New Year's celebrations. Yay! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 00Z = Atmospheric river right on time for the New Year's celebrations. Yay! Not that it matters... but the end of the run is New Years Day and its nice. Of course it shows an 850mb temp of +3C at this time... but its really dry! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_384_precip_p12.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Brief cold shot/snow? leading to a inversion/low-level cold pattern..... Hi, El Nino, you ugly bastard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Not that it matters... but the end of the run is New Years Day and its nice. Of course it shows an 850mb temp of +3C at this time... but its really dry! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_384_precip_p12.gifYeah, I'll wait until the 27th/28th to worry about the forecast for New year's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Yeah, I'll wait until the 27th/28th to worry about the forecast for New year's. But you seemed a little worried about heavy rain for your New Years celebration. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 00z ECMWF HR 72http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_2.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Got 3" this morning. Temps have plummeted with clearing skies tonight. 12F. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 17, 2015 Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Got 3" this morning. Temps have plummeted with clearing skies tonight. 12F.have been thinking about moving to Spokane (south hill area). How do you like living there. I really love the weather as it seems like you guys have 4 seasons. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 But you seemed a little worried about heavy rain for your New Years celebration. I am, it's very sad to see such things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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