james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 15in in 2 stormsThat's not bad. Winter just started. Can't get every storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z NAM is showing a more amplified 500mb pattern down near TX/OK at HR 48 compared to 12z/00z today... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 More precip developing down south compared to 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Cannot wait to see how this system will turn out and also how it will affect people on this forum. Hopefully, we all cash in on some snows. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 This is gonna be a nice run much more widespread precip at 60 compared to 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 More precip developing down south compared to 18zYup, taking on a more trowal type look earlier on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Meh I guess a trend towards more amplified can't hurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yup, taking on a more trowal type look earlier on... Down to 1000 in S. IL and strengthening fast at 66. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z NAM tonight... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010700/namconus_z500_vort_us_21.png vs last night... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png Models are def trending with a more amplified solution each run...trend is our friend so they say... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 994.7 in S. IN. Chicago about to get nailed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks like 4-6 for Chicago this run. Def. trending stronger and stronger each run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 At least the last 4 runs on the NAM it keeps showing more snow on the NW side...nothing crazy but baby stepping... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 At least the last 4 runs on the NAM it keeps showing more snow on the NW side...nothing crazy but baby stepping... Looks like 40-45 mph gusts to go along with that as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Impressive little system. Gonna be tough to nail down where the stripe of snow lines up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Another bad run imby imo. Congrats to Chicago again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160107/00Z/f78/sfcconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looks like 4-6 for Chicago this run. Def. trending stronger and stronger each run.The amplification in such a short period is pretty wild...winds gusts go from 10-20mph at HR 66 to 40-45mph at HR 78... NAM also having problems and looses it at HR 78...starts developing a coastal low on the EC...not going to happen http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010700/namconus_mslp_wind_us_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 These type of systems usually gives models fits and can offer huge surprises the day of the event. Exciting little storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 There's no reason why the NAM should be seeing a coastal low developing when there will be a weak ridge of HP along the EC...bundle all that energy and the storm is much stronger. Probably will be the trend going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 QPF: 18z: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160106/18Z/f84/24hqpfconus.png 0z http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160107/00Z/f78/24hqpfconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 There's no reason why the NAM should be seeing a coastal low developing when there will be a weak ridge of HP along the EC...bundle all that energy and the storm is much stronger. Probably will be the trend going forward. Yup. The trend this winter has been for amplified storms. Don't see why this wouldn't continue. Chicago-Milwaukee looking good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Prolly gonna be too east for me but thats ok. Chicago deserves a good storm. You guys haven't had much yet this winter if im not mistaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Saw this on facebook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Prolly gonna be too east for me but thats ok. Chicago deserves a good storm. You guys haven't had much yet this winter if im not mistaken. Yeah, I think Iowa and most of Minnesota/Wisconsin will be too far east. Maybe along the lakeshore of LM down to Chicago and then near STL is prime for this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Prolly gonna be too east for me but thats ok. Chicago deserves a good storm. You guys haven't had much yet this winter if im not mistaken.Chicago proper, nope...but W/NW burbs...oh ya...Nov 20/21st storm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Saw this on facebook.That is for January 3, 2014...haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 QPF: 18z: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160106/18Z/f84/24hqpfconus.png 0z http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160107/00Z/f78/24hqpfconus.pngAs the phasing gets better, it looks like its filling in farther W/SW. Great signs going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 The radar simulation is looking better as well and taking on more of a neg tilt/comma shape...and 4mb stronger 00z tonight... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010700/namconus_ref_us_20.png Last night's HR 84... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_ref_us_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 That is for January 3, 2014...hahaOMG!!!!! haha. Gotta be kidding meeeeeee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 The radar simulation is looking better as well and taking on more of a neg tilt/comma shape...and 4mb stronger 00z tonight... to Last night's HR 84... s Yup. Noticed that early on. Thought it would build more west/north after those frames but I wonder how much of it stopping the W/NW movements because of the coastal low developing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ill leave that up just so everyone can giggle at it. Wow. Talk about being blind. Someone can pull it though if they want. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 4km nam hr 60 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010700/nam4km_ref_us_20.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Very interesting. Thanks for all the info Tom/Money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Yup. Noticed that early on. Thought it would build more west/north after those frames but I wonder how much of it stopping the W/NW movements because of the coastal low developing?I think so. Look at HR 63, there are storms building out ahead of the main SLP near the App's/Carloina's which prob take a way the energy from the main SLP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Looking better! Cold air gets in a bit faster into NE IL. All snow for this wave here, vs. a mix in the beginning off the 18z. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Can this thing shift west a bit? I hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Saw this on facebook.smh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 final call for ORD: DAB Models are overdoing the snow totals. Cold air doesn't come in fast enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS looks weak even compared to 18z at the same time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Colder on GFS. More snow as a result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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