1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[james1976]

15in in 2 storms

That's not bad. Winter just started. Can't get every storm.

[Tom]

00z NAM is showing a more amplified 500mb pattern down near TX/OK at HR 48 compared to 12z/00z today...

[Money]

More precip developing down south compared to 18z

[Niko]

Cannot wait to see how this system will turn out and also how it will affect people on this forum. Hopefully, we all cash in on some snows.

[Money]

This is gonna be a nice run much more widespread precip at 60 compared to 18z

[Tom]

More precip developing down south compared to 18z

Yup, taking on a more trowal type look earlier on...

[winterfreak]

Meh I guess a trend towards more amplified can't hurt.

[Money]

Yup, taking on a more trowal type look earlier on...

 

Down to 1000 in S. IL and strengthening fast at 66. 

[Tom]

00z NAM tonight...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010700/namconus_z500_vort_us_21.png

 

 

vs last night...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_z500_vort_us_29.png

 

 

Models are def trending with a more amplified solution each run...trend is our friend so they say...

[Money]

994.7 in S. IN.

 

Chicago about to get nailed. 

[Money]

Looks like 4-6 for Chicago this run. Def. trending stronger and stronger each run.

[Tom]

At least the last 4 runs on the NAM it keeps showing more snow on the NW side...nothing crazy but baby stepping...

[Money]

At least the last 4 runs on the NAM it keeps showing more snow on the NW side...nothing crazy but baby stepping...

 

Looks like 40-45 mph gusts to go along with that as well. 

[gosaints]

Impressive little system. Gonna be tough to nail down where the stripe of snow lines up

[winterfreak]

Another bad run imby imo. Congrats to Chicago again.

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160107/00Z/f78/sfcconus.png

[Tom]

Looks like 4-6 for Chicago this run. Def. trending stronger and stronger each run.

The amplification in such a short period is pretty wild...winds gusts go from 10-20mph at HR 66 to 40-45mph at HR 78...

 

NAM also having problems and looses it at HR 78...starts developing a coastal low on the EC...not going to happen

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010700/namconus_mslp_wind_us_28.png

[Money]

These type of systems usually gives models fits and can offer huge surprises the day of the event. Exciting little storm. 

[Tom]

There's no reason why the NAM should be seeing a coastal low developing when there will be a weak ridge of HP along the EC...bundle all that energy and the storm is much stronger.  Probably will be the trend going forward.

[Money]

QPF:

 

18z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160106/18Z/f84/24hqpfconus.png

 

0z 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160107/00Z/f78/24hqpfconus.png

[Money]

There's no reason why the NAM should be seeing a coastal low developing when there will be a weak ridge of HP along the EC...bundle all that energy and the storm is much stronger.  Probably will be the trend going forward.

 

Yup.

 

The trend this winter has been for amplified storms. Don't see why this wouldn't continue. Chicago-Milwaukee looking good. 

[james1976]

Prolly gonna be too east for me but thats ok. Chicago deserves a good storm. You guys haven't had much yet this winter if im not mistaken.

[james1976]

Saw this on facebook.

[Money]

Prolly gonna be too east for me but thats ok. Chicago deserves a good storm. You guys haven't had much yet this winter if im not mistaken.

 

Yeah, I think Iowa and most of Minnesota/Wisconsin will be too far east. Maybe along the lakeshore of LM down to Chicago and then near STL is prime for this one. 

[Tom]

Prolly gonna be too east for me but thats ok. Chicago deserves a good storm. You guys haven't had much yet this winter if im not mistaken.

Chicago proper, nope...but W/NW burbs...oh ya...Nov 20/21st storm...

[Tom]

Saw this on facebook.

That is for January 3, 2014...haha

[Tom]

QPF:

 

18z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160106/18Z/f84/24hqpfconus.png

 

0z 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160107/00Z/f78/24hqpfconus.png

As the phasing gets better, it looks like its filling in farther W/SW.  Great signs going forward.

[Tom]

The radar simulation is looking better as well and taking on more of a neg tilt/comma shape...and 4mb stronger

 

00z tonight...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010700/namconus_ref_us_20.png

 

Last night's HR 84...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016010600/namconus_ref_us_28.png

[james1976]

That is for January 3, 2014...haha

OMG!!!!! haha. Gotta be kidding meeeeeee

[Money]

The radar simulation is looking better as well and taking on more of a neg tilt/comma shape...and 4mb stronger

 

00z tonight...

 

to

 

Last night's HR 84... 

 

s

 

 

Yup. Noticed that early on. Thought it would build more west/north after those frames but I wonder how much of it stopping the W/NW movements because of the coastal low developing?

[james1976]

Ill leave that up just so everyone can giggle at it. Wow. Talk about being blind. Someone can pull it though if they want.

[Money]

4km nam hr 60

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016010700/nam4km_ref_us_20.png

[FV-Mike]

Very interesting. Thanks for all the info Tom/Money

[Tom]

Yup. Noticed that early on. Thought it would build more west/north after those frames but I wonder how much of it stopping the W/NW movements because of the coastal low developing?

I think so.  Look at HR 63, there are storms building out ahead of the main SLP near the App's/Carloina's which prob take a way the energy from the main SLP.

[Geos]

Looking better! Cold air gets in a bit faster into NE IL. All snow for this wave here, vs. a mix in the beginning off the 18z.

 

 

[winterfreak]

Can this thing shift west a bit? I hope so.

[Maxim]

Saw this on facebook.

smh

[Maxim]

final call for ORD: DAB

 

Models are overdoing the snow totals. Cold air doesn't come in fast enough.

[winterfreak]

GFS looks weak even compared to 18z at the same time.

[winterfreak]

Colder on GFS. More snow as a result.