January 2014 in the PNW

[Phil]

Crush job and bifurcation:

 

1mb

 

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/3540/hpda.jpg

 

10mb

 

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/4586/kbig.jpg

[Deweydog]

Crush job and bifurcation:

 

1mb

 

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/3540/hpda.jpg

 

10mb

 

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/4586/kbig.jpg

 

Exactly.  

[whitechristmas]

Crush job and bifurcation:

 

1mb

 

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/3540/hpda.jpg

 

10mb

 

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/4586/kbig.jpg

 

Does a "crush job" finally mean WINTER for the PNW, or does it mean we'll be crushed...again???

[luvssnow_spokane]

Crush job and bifurcation:

 

1mb

 

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/3540/hpda.jpg

 

10mb

 

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/4586/kbig.jpg

What hell does this mean!? For the PNW?!  

[Phil]

Does a "crush job" finally mean WINTER for the PNW, or does it mean we'll be crushed...again???

Putting it simply, breaking down the PV releases the shackles holding the coldest air up at the pole. Flow turns increasingly meridional in nature, and cold air spills into the mid latitudes.

 

The PV is being bombarded by wave breakers and the shifting stress fields associated with the QBO, which is in a declining state. The cooling of the equatorial Strat is slowly igniting the MJO, further amplifying the Rossby wave train.

 

A weaker/disrupted stratospheric PV increases vertical shear on zonal flow below and reduces downward transport of frigid gases from the polar mesosphere, hence you break down the vortex column and often fall into a -NAM/-EPO dominated regime.

[Gradient Keeper]

Crush job and bifurcation:

 

1mb

 

http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/3540/hpda.jpg

 

10mb

 

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/4586/kbig.jpg

PV Split

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS is running! Is anyone else excited because I am not. :ph34r:

[slim1357]

It is likely 95-105mph(if not stronger) at Crown Point, but I have no idea the sensor is down as is Corbett's (Power outage)

I just got back from Crown Point. It was not as strong as Friday for sure but it gave my kids a thrill. I'd guess the strongest gust was in the 85-90mph range.

[Guest Winterdog]

Exactly.

Well said.

[Deweydog]

18z GFS is running! Is anyone else excited because I am not. :ph34r:

 

Looks like the low is MUCH further south than the models have it!

[Guest Monty67]

What hell does this mean!? For the PNW?!

Polar Vortex splitting. Could mean something for us, could mean nothing.

[brody]

18z GFS is running! Is anyone else excited because I am not. :ph34r:

Ohhh Ahhh Geee Lemme think

 

No 

 

Although the colder members on the ensembles is encouraging but it's all still too far out for me to put to much thought or emotion into it

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like the low is MUCH further south than the models have it!

Oh wow really.... I'll have to load it up and look. *falls asleep*

[Deweydog]

Oh wow really.... I'll have to load it up and look. *falls asleep*

 

Check the water vapor loop!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

I just got back from Crown Point. It was not as strong as Friday for sure but it gave my kids a thrill. I'd guess the strongest gust was in the 85-90mph range.

Corbett had a gust to 74 this morning which equates to over 100mph along the steps at Vista House. Also, from judging that along with Biddle Butte gusts compared to the past 2 events which is slightly lower I'd say 95mph+ I bet is about spot on.

[Gradient Keeper]

Check the water vapor loop!!!

Terrifying. It is nice to see a frontal boundary inside 130 W though. Rare

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/4km/NW/WV4NW.GIF

[Gradient Keeper]

Just for the heck of it..... 18z GFS 500mb

 

HR 120

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_120_500_vort_ht.gif

 

HR 144

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_144_500_vort_ht.gif

 

HR 156

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_156_500_vort_ht.gif

[bainbridgekid]

18z has a modified arctic front through the Sound at hour 192.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 168

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_168_500_vort_ht.gif

[Phil]

This run isn't as good as the 12z for the PNW, but continues the theme of modified arctic air.

[Gradient Keeper]

This run isn't as good as the 12z for the PNW, but continues the theme of modified arctic air.

At least the 500mb pattern gets its act together sooner. Ridge/block merger near day 7. Better than seeing it at day 10-12.

[TT-SEA]

Annoying that its so dry... looks very much like December.

[Deweydog]

Annoying that its so dry... looks very much like December.

 

Funny.  I looked at it just now and I thought "Tim is going to comment about how dry this run is." 

 

Models are just starting to get their act together.  Do some yoga.  

[brody]

Annoying that its so dry... looks very much like December.

True but at least our mountain waterfalls haven't run dry or nearly dry like they have in Yosemite Nat.park 

[TT-SEA]

Funny.  I looked at it just now and I thought "Tim is going to comment about how dry this run is." 

 

Models are just starting to get their act together.  Do some yoga.  

 

 

Does not really bother me too much... would be nice to get a shot at meaningful snow if its going to cold.  

[stuffradio]

Is that a Pineapple Express past hour 300? Meteostar wouldn't let me load the images.

[Deweydog]

Does not really bother me too much... would be nice to get a shot at meaningful snow if its going to cold.  

 

Wouldn't it though???  I enjoy snow.  

[Deweydog]

Is that a Pineapple Express past hour 300? Meteostar wouldn't let me load the images.

 

Ye may only speak of 300 hours if ye has something POSITIVE to say about it.

 

I'm not sure how the attitude police will feel about this, but I think a quick burst of cold/coldish/impactfully cool followed by a significantly wet pattern feels right.  

[Guest Winterdog]

Wet:

 

[Guest Winterdog]

Something to wash our newly acquired mountain snow down the hill and the east coast might get another much needed arctic blast at the end of the run as well.

[Snow]

The 18z GFS is super, it brings arctic air. For Vancouver BC and Seattle, 850 temperatures get to -15 and for Portland/Troutdale -13. All of this is inside 228 hours, getting closer now.

[Gradient Keeper]

It may be the 18z, but I definitely like the 500mb pattern progression developing day 6-7 it looks more "believable" if you will. AND you will! or else....

[Gradient Keeper]

Something to wash our newly acquired mountain snow down the hill and the east coast might get another much needed arctic blast at the end of the run as well.

Yeah, those poor folks have been really deprived of cold and snow this Winter. It simply isn't fair that we keep hogging all of the goodies. We simply are stuck up and selfish how we refuse to share. We were taught to share! screw the rules

[TT-SEA]

18Z is definitely cold.

 

Still a strange evolution.

[stuffradio]

Yeah, those poor folks have been really deprived of cold and snow this Winter. It simply isn't fair that we keep hogging all of the goodies. We simply are stuck up and selfish how we refuse to share. We were taught to share! screw the rules

I think at this point, they might start groaning at another blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think at this point, they might start groaning at another blast.

Perhaps. Would we? ever? Just for shits and giggles imagine if we had 5-7 arctic blasts say from December 10th - February 20th, do you think anyone would complain or get tired of "the D**n snow and cold!" hmmm... I don't know. I'd be okay with it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Perhaps. Would we? ever? Just for shits and giggles imagine if we had 5-7 arctic blasts say from December 10th - February 20th, do you think anyone would complain or get tired of "the D**n snow and cold!" hmmm... I don't know. I'd be okay with it.

Epic! "shits" isn't censored but "D**n" is lmao... I love this place *high 5's iFred*

[Gradient Keeper]

Epic! "shits" isn't censored but "D**n" is lmao... I love this place *high 5's iFred*

              ^ LOL!

 

 

SHITS

[Snow]

The 18z GFS looks like a repeat of early Dec. -15 cold air arrives but no moisture until too warm temps to support snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

              ^ LOL!

 

 

SHITS

        ^ LOL... oh god I could do this all day.... *calms down.... inject tranquilizers*