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January 2014 in the PNW


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Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours (posted on the other site as well):

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011312!!chart.gif

 

 

The signal for retrogression appears to be very weak and not likely to have a meaningful impact for quite awhile in my opinion.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Just getting a post in on the first page....

 

In weather news, quite a few trees came down in Corvallis on Saturday.  We live on a remote road and were without power for about 14 hours when a 2 ft diameter fir fell across our road and power lines.

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  • Longtimer

There is a 'like' button!   

 

That is awesome.

I know! I have gotten so used to Facebook that whenever I see a post I like on the forum my first instinct is to hit the non existant like button! This is awesome!

 

In other news, after the active and fun weather weekend, it looks quite dull for the forseeable future :(

It is a good time to slowly transition to this new site, though!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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By the way... I had the opportunity to change my user name just now and went with the same one by instinct.

 

I thought it might be hard if we all change our user names though.

 

I hate mine... it was thought of on the spur of the moment back in 2004 when I figured it was going to be people from all over the country so initials and location would be good.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

By the way... I had the opportunity to change my user name just now and went with the same one by instinct.

 

I thought it might be hard if we all change our user names though.

 

I hate mine... it was thought of on the spur of the moment back in 2004 when I figured it was going to be people from all over the country so initials and location would be good.    

 

If Dewey was dead I'd change mine, but he's still alive.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Thought about adding my usual Seattle rain cartoon signature... which I decided was sort of annoying for everyone to have to see with every post.

 

Looks better if we keep it clean.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Someone needs to start a forecast thread for the upcoming inversion ridge to REALLY get this place rocking!

 

 

Trying to jinx us with that avatar??

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours (posted on the other site as well):

 

 

 

The signal for retrogression appears to be very weak and not likely to have a meaningful impact for quite awhile in my opinion.

Oddball pattern. That rex block won't verify

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It's not.  

 

 

Its another escaped polar vortex... the press should be notified! 

 

Good write up from Cliff on that topic:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-polar-vortex-myth-and-reality.html

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Its another escaped polar vortex... the press should be notified! 

 

Good write up from Cliff on that topic:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-polar-vortex-myth-and-reality.html

 

17 days with heights never below 560dm.  That's not going to happen.

 

Or maybe it is.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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17 with heights never below 560dm.  That's not going to happen.

 

Or maybe it is.  

 

I can envision June now... heights never above 560dm.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I just posted in the Long range thread an update for the CFS/Euro weeklies.  The ridge should start to migrate away by day 11-15.  The end of the month and early February still looks favorable.

 

I saw that.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

I just posted in the Long Range Discussion an update for the CFS/Euro weeklies.  The ridge should start to migrate away by day 11-15.  The end of the month and early February still looks favorable.

 

Tracking the CFS is SO Western...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Models are really starting to hint at the return of ridging in the EPO domain towards the end of the month. The progression of tropical forcing and the wave-breaker over the Aleutians favors this scenario, so it's not just model madness.

 

This is the first step towards a return to winter in the west, though I think we're still at least 15-20 days away from anything legit. So the prediction of a 4-6 week "hiatus" seems to have worked out.

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  • Longtimer

Models are really starting to hint at the return of ridging in the EPO domain towards the end of the month. The progression of tropical forcing and the wave-breaker over the Aleutians favors this scenario, so it's not just model madness.

 

This is the first step towards a return to winter in the west, though I think we're still at least 15-20 days away from anything legit. So the prediction of a 4-6 week "hiatus" seems to have worked out.

 

I definitely shared the same thoughts as far as a hiatus from western troughing. Although the MJO is taking longer to get going than I originally thought, back in the last week of December I shared my reasoning as to why I didn't think we had a shot until the end of the month. Once the MJO reached the West Pacific, it was evident we would have an extended period of riding while an El Nino like regime took hold. Seems as though it will still take a bit to possibly get things going around here, so I'm guessing end of the month will be a bit too soon. If things are going to work out as I'm hoping, I'm thinking the first week or 2 of February... but then again, I've consistently been too quick with my thinking. The AMM will be headed into positive territory shortly, followed by another drop. The correlations associated with the AMM and 500mb heights as well as tropical convection is evident in the following composite I threw together. -AMM supports a -PNA ridge as well convection in the Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent regions.

 

http://i40.tinypic.com/16ifuxl.gif

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Yeah, the tropical tropopause has been in a lowered state with the +QBO westerlies and anti-cyclonic eddies all over the boundaries of the Ferrel domain...so the MJO has been hampered thus far. My original call for a breakout in mid Jan looks way off, almost a month too early. Whoops, haha.

 

Also, regarding your bottom-left image. That looks more like a -AAM geopotential height orientation to me?

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  • Longtimer

Yeah, the tropical tropopause has been in a lowered state with the +QBO westerlies and anti-cyclonic eddies all over the boundaries of the Ferrel domain...so the MJO has been hampered thus far. My original call for a breakout in mid Jan looks way off, almost a month too early. Whoops, haha.

 

Also, regarding your bottom-left image. That looks more like a -AAM geopotential height orientation to me?

 

Oooops, that was supposed to say -AAM... going to fix it right now. How soon do you believe the decreasing westerlies will help cool the troposphere/stratosphere and allow the MJO to strengthen?

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Oooops, that was supposed to say -AAM... going to fix it right now. How soon do you believe the decreasing westerlies will help cool the troposphere/stratosphere and allow the MJO to strengthen?

This is a tough one, but I'm thinking the metaphoric rubber band snaps sometime between February 10th and March 10th. In my view, this could be a classic late-winter SSW/MJO release, perhaps marking the demise of the winter-PV as the FSW (final warming).

 

In February 1991, something very similar occurred. Only, the tropical forcings coupled with the flimsy Brewer-Dobson cell/high solar flux the led to a US blow-torch while the rest of the hemisphere went into the freezer..much like January-February 2012.

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Does anyone know of studies (climatology) for when and if a west coast ridge occurs in winter whether it has a preferred length of stay?

 

Anecdotally, I have often heard that once this ridge establishes, it is rather difficult to move, weaken, etc.  I suppose it is also seasonally dependent.

 

PRISM

P R I S M

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All:

 

For any truly newbies:

 

The Monthly Western Snowpack and Water Supply Forecast Report has also been posted to the NWCC homepage in MS Word and Adobe Acrobat formats at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl.

 

The Weekly CONUS Snowpack and Drought Update Report has been posted to the NWCC homepage as an Adobe Acrobat file at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl. Archived copies can also be acquired there.

P R I S M

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