January 2014 in the PNW

[Deweydog]

I'm not taking sides here but I was somewhat surprised that Brennan thought he was referring to his post.  It was obvious to me that he was talking about the glancing blow possibility on the Euro. 

 

Same here, but we have some pretty sensitive members and his reputation is poor.  

[Sometimesdylan]

Picked up 2 inches of rain yesterday, started out as snow but quickly warmed up to above freezing all the way to 4000 ft. Another few wet days in the forecast. Lots of flooding all around SE AK. Sitka also broke a daily precipitation record. That is kind of shocking because Sitka is the rain king.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty warm for the region except for the major Puget Sound stations where they will be stuck in the muck.

 

Probably going to have the first 60-degree reading of the year for my location.       Reminds me of last January.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3D9NHyzBGdw/UtYkJbsHJeI/AAAAAAAAYyw/OJtHk-zKghQ/s1600/wa_tsfc.69.0000.gif

[GHweatherChris]

I was referring to the post above me made by DJ Droppin on the 12Z Euro at the end of the run. The cold air pool skims by. I don't even know how you can think it was in response to Brennan.

 

I think an apology is in order.

 

Thank you very much!! I was not even responding to Brennan and I still get treated poorly. The bullying by some posters is really getting out of hand.

WOW.  Just WOW.

[Phil]

Good news is while the pattern sucks for the west, the -DA circulation has been favored. The arctic has really been frozen up over the last 30 days, with very little in the way of Fram export:

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

[Bryant]

There is some promising possibilities based on SOI info that Brennan shared and a few other factors right now. I think things may play out for us but to what degree is hard to tell. It could be close (near miss), marginal, or amazing.  Even a high SOI does not "guarantee" us greatness. I am not sure why you consider his post a troll post. It was just his thoughts, wrong or right, even if he is basing it off models or climo, as that is what many do all the time on here.  Heck, some just base it off their "gut"... Should we call then trolls too? Positive, wish-casting, gut trolls? Whats the difference on his post or theirs other than it rubs your fur the wrong way? He called it as he saw it.

 

I feel they are all just different views wrong or right, who cares. 

 

I wasn't saying he was a troll based on that exact comment, just based on his over all attitude on the forums. When you're first post on the new forum is "Back by popular demand", well that just screams troll in my opinion. Everyone has a right to share their opinon, and I urge everyone to do so on these forums. It's how you go about it which determines how it's perceived.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I made it here finally!

 

BTW, interesting weather out at 360 hours.  Hehe.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... I was really worried about the Fram export.    Could not sleep last night thinking about it.

 

Thanks for clarifying!    

[Bryant]

A very stubborn pattern. Nice to see an Aleutian ridge build in again though.

 

http://i44.tinypic.com/t0205g.png

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully Jim will come to the new site.

 

He is almost oblivious to what is going on... he is so single-minded on posting all the good cold news and then getting out.   

 

I saw that he posted last night on the old forum and I doubt he even knows there is a new forum.   He will just find somewhere to post over there and then get out.  

[Dan the Weatherman]

I was joshin'. I agree, much more in the way of arctic air over the conus, but there's been a horrid lack of storminess over the lower 48.

 

I'd like to see some nice phasers before the winter is over, and it looks like Feb/Mar could have plenty of them.

That has been the case especially in CA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully Jim will come to the new site.

 

He is almost oblivious to what is going on... he is so single-minded on posting all the good cold news and then getting out.   

 

I saw that he posted last night on the old forum and I doubt he even knows there is a new forum.   He will just find somewhere to post over there and then get out.  

 

This post made me laugh pretty hard, I'm not going to lie. Poor Jim.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing... the only rain in the next week comes almost out of nowhere right over Seattle on Sunday afternoon and evening.

 

Its been shown in different places in WA and OR in this time frame but has been closing in on Seattle with each run and now its perfectly placed to rain on the game.

 

Every game is a rain magnet.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_102_precip_p06.gif

[MossMan]

Hard to complain about today, Mostly sunny and fairly mild! Felt like a early summer evening while driving back north from North Seattle late this afternoon. The morning sunrise has become noticeably earlier as well. How about one major shot of arctic cold and snow around the first week of February, then a very early spring and a summer like we had last year!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Amazing... the only rain in the next week comes almost out of nowhere right over Seattle on Sunday afternoon and evening.

 

Its been shown in different places in WA and OR in this time frame but has been closing in on Seattle with each run and now its perfectly placed to rain on the game.

 

Every game is a rain magnet.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_102_precip_p06.gif

I am not sure what your talking about. I have been a long time Seahawks fan and it has been amazing how dry most home games are. So I did a little research and happend to stumble across this article from Scott Sistek

 

"Seahawks games: Drier than Mariners games?!?

 

This might surprise anyone who has season tickets this year but a vast majority of Seahawks home games through the years have been dry. Of the 91 home games from the stadium opener in 2002 through the Tennessee game on Oct. 13, there has been measurable rain on just 18 of them -- or just under 20%. That averages out to about 4 out of every 5 home games dry. (Seven additional games had a trace of rain, meaning it sprinkled but didn't really get anyone wet.)"

 

Full article is here:

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Rainy-Seattle-has-been-relatively-kind-to-Seahawks-12th-Man-not-so-to-49ers-228245861.html

 

Another more current article (Jan 12th): http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Saturdays-Seahawks-game-was-their-wettest-ever-at-the-CLink-239824931.html

[Deweydog]

Brrrrr...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=1000_500_thick&fhr=240&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[Jesse]

Hard to complain about today, Mostly sunny and fairly mild! Felt like a early summer evening while driving back north from North Seattle late this afternoon. The morning sunrise has become noticeably earlier as well. How about one major shot of arctic cold and snow around the first week of February, then a very early spring and a summer like we had last year!

 

39/34 with fog down here. Nice to have it feeling like winter again at least.

 

Personally I am hoping for a cold/active first half of spring this year. The mountains will be needing the snow and it would be nice to have some active weather for a few months. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

39/34 with fog down here. Nice to have it feeling like winter again at least.

 

Personally I am hoping for a cold/active first half of spring this year. The mountains will be needing the snow and it would be nice to have some active weather for a few months.

 

I think we may some cooler days here also due to inversion and fog. At this point I will settle for fake cold.

[TT-SEA]

I am not sure what your talking about. I have been a long time Seahawks fan and it has been amazing how dry most home games are. So I did a little research and happend to stumble across this article from Scott Sistek

 

"Seahawks games: Drier than Mariners games?!?

 

This might surprise anyone who has season tickets this year but a vast majority of Seahawks home games through the years have been dry. Of the 91 home games from the stadium opener in 2002 through the Tennessee game on Oct. 13, there has been measurable rain on just 18 of them -- or just under 20%. That averages out to about 4 out of every 5 home games dry. (Seven additional games had a trace of rain, meaning it sprinkled but didn't really get anyone wet.)"

 

Full article is here:

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Rainy-Seattle-has-been-relatively-kind-to-Seahawks-12th-Man-not-so-to-49ers-228245861.html

 

Another more current article (Jan 12th): http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Saturdays-Seahawks-game-was-their-wettest-ever-at-the-CLink-239824931.html

 

The games this year have been mostly cursed.   There is no denying it.   From the lightning storm in the Niners game to rain during the Vikings game and the first Saints game and the second Saints game.    And the Cardinals game.  

 

Flatiron said that every nationally televised game since the Packers game last year with the "catch" has been rained on... a curse!

[Utrex]

 

 

 

The QBO is currently in phase 6,cold in the east (troughing) with the opposite elsewhere. http://i.imgur.com/nJ5CGrU.png

 

 

Soon, the QBO will reach its easterly phase (phase 8) and that's when the east turns mild. (West turns wild)

 

(Image from WSI blogs)

[TT-SEA]

Brrrrr...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=1000_500_thick&fhr=240&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

 

For most of my relatives... indeed.  

 

They are tired of winter.    More tired than we are out here... for very different reasons.

 

This has been passed along by a few of them:

 

[Bryant]

Well, here's something really important.

 

 

The QBO is currently in phase 6,cold in the east (troughing) with the opposite elsewhere. http://i.imgur.com/nJ5CGrU.png

 

 

Soon, the QBO will reach its easterly phase (phase 8) and that's when the east turns mild. (West turns wild)

Hey Utrex, thanks for posting this image. If you don't mind, I'm curious where you got this? As far as I know, this is typically behind a pay site

[Utrex]

Hey Utrex, thanks for posting this image. If you don't mind, I'm curious where you got this? As far as I know, this is typically behind a pay site

WSI blogs

 

 

I was thinking of buying their model since it was so easy to read.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good news is while the pattern sucks for the west, the -DA circulation has been favored. The arctic has really been frozen up over the last 30 days, with very little in the way of Fram export:

 

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

I wish you would explain more of these things like this in simple words. Fram? like a fram filter? wtf. lol.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hopefully Jim will come to the new site.

 

He is almost oblivious to what is going on... he is so single-minded on posting all the good cold news and then getting out.   

 

I saw that he posted last night on the old forum and I doubt he even knows there is a new forum.   He will just find somewhere to post over there and then get out.  

I can feel his frustrations. He knows more about winter weather around here then most everyone. Many of the signals he talks about are all accurate yet here we are with nothing.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing but ridging as far as we can reasonably see...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011600!!chart.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Nothing but ridging as far as we can reasonably see...

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011600!!chart.gif

NO. Just no. So awful. I can't sugar coat this or find anything real positive about this run. Any remote hint of any retrogression, or any cold air glancing by to our east is non-existent. At least it will be..... yeah. Right. Yep.

[Brennan]

Can’t anyone be patient? Say we get our cold and snowy weather from January 25th to the 30th... and then our winter is likely over... What’s the difference between getting it then or getting it February 1st-7th? ... Historically that latter isn’t as epic, but does it really matter? 30*F and snow is 30*F and snow whether it Jan 27 or Feb 4th. Patience!

[bainbridgekid]

I wish you would explain more of these things like this in simple words. Fram? like a fram filter? wtf. lol.

The Fram straight is the body of water between Greenland and Norway that connects the Atlantic and Arctic oceans.

 

I'm assuming Fram Export would refer to sea ice being blown South into the Atlantic and melting.

[Phil]

I wish you would explain more of these things like this in simple words. Fram? like a fram filter? wtf. lol.

Haha, sorry. Meaning ice being flushed out of the Arctic through the Fram Strait..less ice in the arctic = lowered albedo = warmer arctic/SSTs = further reduction of ice..etc. A positive feedback loop.

[Phil]

The Fram straight is the body of water between Greenland and Norway that connects the Atlantic and Arctic oceans.

 

I'm assuming Fram Export would refer to sea ice being blown South into the Atlantic and melting.

Exactly.

[Phil]

The QBO is currently in phase 6,cold in the east (troughing) with the opposite elsewhere. http://i.imgur.com/nJ5CGrU.png

Soon, the QBO will reach its easterly phase (phase 8) and that's when the east turns mild. (West turns wild)

(Image from WSI blogs)

Good post. It's not that simple, though. You have many forcing parameters that dictate the polar-mid latitude-tropical interactive mechanics. To put this out in a simple manner, here are the primary mechanics to look at:

 

-ENSO/AAM

-MJO

-QBO & SAO

-Solar & Brewer Dobson poleward O^3 flux ( The Sun forces/perturbs all the above).

 

 

All of these mechanics inter-relate and affect one another. In a truly neutral ENSO like this, you're right that the strong +QBO may act like a backbone of sorts. But this is not always the case.

[The Swamp]

First post.

[HighlandExperience]

At some point I imagine this has to be balanced out!! <_>

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[luvssnow_spokane]

At some point I imagine this has to be balanced out!! <_>

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Yep... spring time into summer.

[luvssnow_spokane]

If that means an unstable, convective and active summer, then Im cool with it.

Me too!!  I honestly don't really know but it is very possible we might see a flip around this time for a good three to four months potentially leading to a very nice summer. Personally the sooner things get shaken up the better as I know we would all like to see a little more action before it is to late. I feel confident the mountains will get their snow pack in March and April this year. Better late than never and Makes for great spring skiing. 

[hailstop]

At some point I imagine this has to be balanced out!!

 

 

 

That was called 'December'. :-)

[Jesse]

The models were showing a nice trend of possible retrogression toward the end of the month yesterday. That's all dissolved in the last few runs, though. A shame.

[MossMan]

The models were showing a nice trend of possible retrogression toward the end of the month yesterday. That's all dissolved in the last few runs, though. A shame.

I miss active winter weather. I'm still hopeful for Feb with many of the longer range teleconnections favoring a change.

[Jesse]

I miss active winter weather. I'm still hopeful for Feb with many of the longer range teleconnections favoring a change.

Now the 12z GFS is out and shows retrogression again. I spoke too soon.