January 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Model riders...

We all are, yup. Sounds like a reality tv series.

 

Next, on A&E an all new Model Riders. Rob posts about east wind, insists the PDX-DLS gradient might exceed 10mb. Tim analyzes the WRF. A new member is labeled with a [Weenie Tag] after being upset about how bad the Winter has been. Drama ensues. Flatiron and BLI Snowman have a climatology throwdown of epic proportions, and SnowWizard Jim refuses to accept that there simply is no retrogression on the 00z. It's all new and all next on A&E

[Deweydog]

Late November/early December.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Really?

 

He is thinking only of retrogression... ONLY.    He is like a robot sometimes.   

 

He would be on here tonight with the model improvement if he had any idea this place existed.  

Lol he answered you on old forum.

[catnip]

Nah, it's the owner of Team Implode Audio(based in Medford, OR). He was gracious enough to let me use his truck for my album cover. I did talk to Mike yesterday though.

Maybe he can make the Ridge go Boom!

[TT-SEA]

Lol he answered you on old forum.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah, this may be Jim's chance to quietly exit if he really wants to. Hopefully he will join us though, I would miss his posts!

He will never leave all together for good. I would bet 10 grand. He's crazy for this crap.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO in 1 hour 45 minutes!

[TT-SEA]

Wow, you are even a Debbie Downer on the Seahawks.

 

I don't like to presume the Seahawks will be in the Super Bowl.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Late November/early December.  

Why the capital d D?

[Deweydog]

Why the capital d D?

 

The lower case always bugged me.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The lower case always bugged me.  

It's funny how one can get used to scanning the names and pics to recognize who is who. Everything is off a little.

[Deweydog]

It's funny how one can get used to scanning the names and pics to recognize who is who. Everything is off a little.

 

It's a lot to take in.  Luckily we're in the midst of a remarkably slow mid/late winter so the impact is minimal.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's a lot to take in.  Luckily we're in the midst of a remarkably slow mid/late winter so the impact is minimal.  

Just take it a day at a time. I'm just worried about the big snow storm in 17 days.

[Deweydog]

Just take it a day at a time. I'm just worried about the big snow storm in 17 days.

 

More importantly, inversion season is beginning to slowly wane.  

[TT-SEA]

The lower case always bugged me.  

 

Good idea.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good idea.

Copy cat.

[brody]

I don't like to presume the Seahawks will be in the Super Bowl.   

Your handle never used to be all caps, what gives?

[TT-SEA]

Your handle never used to be all caps, what gives?

 

 

Looks better.   A little less stupid.   Or not.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks better.   A little less stupid.   Or not.

Why do you think it's stupid?

[TT-SEA]

Why do you think it's stupid?

 

 

Well... I don't live in SEA.      And I live in a very different climate zone as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Well... I don't live in SEA.      And I live in a very different climate zone as

Climate isn't far off lately. Ridiculous to think how little snow you have had this year compared to other years.

[Skagit Weather]

Second beautiful day in a row up here. 51F yesterday and 47F today with mostly clear skies by about 2 p.m. The sun is nice, but it seems like mother nature is mocking us. It seems like all we have had since last winter is sun or clouds. Maybe all the storms are being saved up for one winter where we will have an active patter from October to March.

[TT-SEA]

Climate isn't far off lately. Ridiculous to think how little snow you have had this year compared to other years.

 

 

My grass is greening up.   Not quite right in January.

[Skagit Weather]

Well compared to the beginning of the month, last week's snow storm really helped the mountains catch up to normal, but it also looks like the next few weeks are not going to be increasing the snow pack. This is The NWAC report from January 15. Unfortunately with freezing levels around 11,000 feet and high temps for the next few days in the 40's and 50's at the ski areas, the bases may begin to shrink once again.

            CURRENT  CLIMATE  PER CENT   LAST  THRU 2013  THRU 2013            DEPTH    AVERAGE  OF NORMAL  YEAR  MAX/YEAR   MIN/YEARHURRICANE    28       70       40         93   118/2007    10/1981MT BAKER     86      109       79        139   180/1971    15/1981STEVENS      52       74       70         80   146/1969     6/1981SNOQUALMIE   28       65       43         66   123/1969     0/1981STAMPEDE     27       70       39         56   179/1972     0/1981MISSION      20       36       56         40    63/1995    12/1981CRYSTAL      28       50       56         62    91/1971     3/1981PARADISE     98      111       88        123   216/1969    31/1981WHITE PASS   30       45       67         45    80/2000     0/1981TIMBERLINE   66      102       65        105   170/1975    10/1981MEADOWS      51       87       59         88   144/1989     0/1981

[luminen]

Cold and foggy day in Eugene today. Hovered at 34F-35F all day. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO full run
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
The demise of the unbreakable western ridge? Obvious retrogression of the PV as the flow bends around quite sharply in British Columbia and Alberta. The cold air gets oh so close, but as the "head" of the block is pinched off southwesterly flow tries to move into the picture. This shoves the cold air back up into the Canadian prairies. At least a pattern change is showing up before day 10 now.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

[Brennan]

I speak daily with Jim on AOL instant messenger. He’s alive and well. And yes AOL IM still does exist. 

Seahawks 34

49ers 11

[Phil]

00z EURO full run

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html

The demise of the unbreakable western ridge? Obvious retrogression of the PV as the flow bends around quite sharply in British Columbia and Alberta. The cold air gets oh so close, but as the "head" of the block is pinched off southwesterly flow tries to move into the picture. This shoves the cold air back up into the Canadian prairies. At least a pattern change is showing up before day 10 now.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

That low off the coast is not what you guys want.

[GobBluth]

That low off the coast is not what you guys want.

It's wet and thats what we need.

[TT-SEA]

It's wet and thats what we need.

 

 

More what California needs... at some point there has to be some storms down there.    

[st0rmchaser]

Overnight low of 24F, not a drop or a flake in sight.

[st0rmchaser]

http://i42.tinypic.com/i40jtc.png

 

Quite a hefty inversion at PDX today at sunrise.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Honestly, all The models just completely suck for us all the way out past 300 hours (well 240 on the Euro). What glimmer of hope was shown yesterday was just that, a glimmer. The heart of this winter is epic from a dry and inactive point of view. I blame it on global warming.  --- Here comes Phil!! 

[HighlandExperience]

Honestly, all The models just completely suck for us all the way out past 300 hours (well 240 on the Euro). What glimmer of hope was shown yesterday was just that, a glimmer. The heart of this winter is epic from a dry and inactive point of view. I blame it on global warming.  --- Here comes Phil!! 

 

I thought Phil said 2014 was supposed to be the beginning of the ice age 

[Deweydog]

I thought Phil said 2014 was supposed to be the beginning of the ice age 

 

He's actually done a pretty good job this winter.  

[Brennan]

I thought Phil said 2014 was supposed to be the beginning of the ice age 

People east of the Rockies probably feel like it is the beginning of the ice age!

[Phil]

I thought Phil said 2014 was supposed to be the beginning of the ice age

Nope, but the longer term decline into the next glacial should initiate sometime around 2017 (+/- 1yr), with a significant temperature drop occurring during the 2020s. We finished up our warming in 2012.

[Phil]

He's actually done a pretty good job this winter.

Thanks man.

[Canadian guy]

Honestly, all The models just completely suck for us all the way out past 300 hours (well 240 on the Euro). What glimmer of hope was shown yesterday was just that, a glimmer. The heart of this winter is epic from a dry and inactive point of view. I blame it on global warming.  --- Here comes Phil!! 

 

At least the ensembles are slowing improving.  Hopefully back to normal or cooler by the end of month.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Phil]

It's wet and thats what we need.

Not if you want snow in the lowlands. That's a very anomalous negative that will prevent intrusion.