January 2014 in the PNW

[Snow]

I dont trust the Euro because it wants to get the whole SW cold and that wont happen without the NW getting cold.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_amer_00/GZ_PN_240_0000.gif

[westiztehbest]

Day 13-15 are pretty interesting on the Euro weeklies.  It shows the ridge retrograding further and a shortwave dropping along the coast originating from Alaska.  That could be money.  We'll see.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, now it is on to 6z and 12z

 

6z GFS in 3 hours

12z GFS in 9 hours

12z GEM in 9 1/2 hours

12z EURO in 11 hours 20 minutes

[Dan the Weatherman]

I feel like I shouldn't have to post this...

 

Please don't attack others based on their views, sexual orientation, home town, favorite sporting team, or love of damp and dreary weather. It is one thing to have discourse where the audience can learn a thing or two, but another thing to try to tear others down. I will bring back the weenie tag and place a few on mod preview. We are starting new forum with some old friends and faces, this is ok, what isn't is the old crap. If you have questions about the policy, my views, hatred of others, or the site, then PM me.

 

I agree with you on everything except for the weenie tag. In my opinion having a member of the forum referred to as a "weenie" gives the impression that this is not a serious forum and could possibly draw negative attention toward a member with that designation. In addition, it is a form of labeling someone with an inappropriate title or a form of name-calling.

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS is still cold.

[westcoastexpat]

I think that's what it might come down to.

 

I agree. Unless that low sweeps to the side like the main arctic air; however, lows like that tend to drop nicely down the coast.

 

However, I do have fears given we had the same situation back in December with a cold low dropping down the coast and it was dry as a bone, bringing in modified arctic air before the real arctic air came rushing in. If it can sustain moisture off the coast or encourage CZ formation, there could be money for the northern part of this forum.

 

I still like the idea of a low possibly forming in eastern Oregon at the onset of ridge retrogression next month. This could tap into moisture and supply snow to northern areas that can sustain it. The Euro hinted at this a few runs ago, but it wasn't cold enough for snow.

[TT-SEA]

The "Sun Angle" argument gets old after five years. Tell this to those who live in the mid west or the mid Atlantic, when a mid February arctic event is baring down. I know that the sun can influence marginal events, but the upper atmospheric heating doesn't destroy our chances until mid March.

 

 

The sun angle begins to mitigate marginal situations in February.     February is basically October in reverse.    We have lots of marginal situations out here. 

 

By the end of the month... the sun is as high as it is in early October.

 

Obviously with a strong storm and/or genuine cold air those effects are not very noticeable yet... like with what is happening in the Midwest.    But growing up in Minnesota... you always knew the snow would begin melting in February.   Even if there were still periods of very cold weather.    

[TT-SEA]

5.50 inches of rain here so far in January... and yet 21 out of 28 days have been totally dry here.     And most of those 21 days have been sunny.

 

Given the rain the next couple days... I will end up over 6 inches which is not really that dry.      In January of 1985 there was only 1 inch of rain here and about the same number of dry days.

 

I had 10 inches of rain in November and 5 inches of rain in December as well.     So now over 20 inches in the last 90 days with normal being about 25 inches.  

 

The way the rain has come this winter... in bunches with lots of dry days in between... has been so nice. 

 

SEA is running about 50% of normal with a total departure of 9 inches since November 1st.      Several situations with heavy warm front rain out here while dry in Seattle have been the difference in the departure percentages.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That blast is sure looking dry right now, but a lot of time for that to change. The operational and ensembles are looking pretty good. 06z probably had the coldest mean yet.

[Skagit Weather]

That blast is sure looking dry right now, but a lot of time for that to change. The operational and ensembles are looking pretty good. 06z probably had the coldest mean yet.

Yeah, plenty of time to change, but I am not feeling too optimistic for snow chances. I don't think there is one ensemble member that shows precipitation up here when it is cold enough to snow. It is nice to see the mean for Seattle down to -10C though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

To bad we can't get a period of cold onshore flow ahead of the arctic front like we did in February 2011.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

To bad we can't get a period of cold onshore flow ahead of the arctic front like we did in February 2011.

 

Yes... too bad.

 

This blocky pattern does not allow it I guess.    That PV has been parked over the Midwest for 2 months now.    Huge boulder in the middle of a river.   

[TT-SEA]

Update on ECMWF weeklies:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-long-range-and-some-snow/22641277

[HighlandExperience]

Update on ECMWF weeklies:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-long-range-and-some-snow/22641277

 

Looks better than January.

[Guest Monty67]

Update on ECMWF weeklies:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-long-range-and-some-snow/22641277

Lots of cold air in bc.....possible storminess/ moisture tracking into Washington and Oregon. ......... So he is saying there's a chance.

[Guest Monty67]

Jesse, you get any snow last night?

[Gradient Keeper]

That blast is sure looking dry right now, but a lot of time for that to change. The operational and ensembles are looking pretty good. 06z probably had the coldest mean yet.

It definitely did.

 

6z GFS operational was quite good.

 

Ensembles? To my surprise vast improvement. Mean temp down to -8c and holds at -7c through February 8th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

My hunch is the mean temp won't get any lower than -8c to -9c. I hope I am wrong. Why do I think that? I'd like to see the block axis further offshore once the ridge/block merger has occurred. It just looks slightly too close to 140 W(or even inside slightly) to my liking.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS HR180 Ridge axis simply too close to us. 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_npac_180_500_vort_ht.gif

[Jesse]

Jesse, you get any snow last night?

 

Nope, just some light, cold drizzle but it was mostly dry. The gorge is cursed now that I'm here.

[Guest Monty67]

Nope, just some light, cold drizzle but it was mostly dry. The gorge is cursed now that I'm here.

not even freezing drizzle? shitty

[TT-SEA]

Ridge looks even more pronounced next Monday on the 12Z Canadian:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

Ohhh, but supposedly after day 8-9 things look better. Day 10 looks real nice. I'm not buying it. We'll see what the Ensembles show.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge looks even more pronounced next Monday on the 12Z Canadian:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

Ridge is too close to us on the 12z GEM

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Just some minor tweaks to the 500mb pattern and we score.... I suppose that isn't too unrealistic.

[Jesse]

I don't get the complaining. 12z was a nice run. Definitely snowier.

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't get the complaining. 12z was a nice run. Definitely snowier.

At face value it's good, sure. I don't like that the pattern doesn't setup favorably until after day 7 really. Progression after resolution change looks funny to me. I want to see the 500mb pattern get its act together by day 5-6 and the goodies arriving day 7-8, not at day 9-10. Plus I just simply don't believe the GFS operationals after day 7.

[Jesse]

I bet there will be a lot of ensemble members as cold or colder than the operational.

 

I also expect the Euro to improve this morning. The ensemble mean for last night's run was much farther offshore with the blocking than the operational, with lower heights over us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I don't get the complaining. 12z was a nice run. Definitely snowier.

It's the new forum.

[westcoastexpat]

The Euro op has been horribly inconsistent lately with some oddball solutions, so the ensembles are definitely the way to go

[TT-SEA]

I bet there will be a lot of ensemble members as cold or colder than the operational.

 

I also expect the Euro to improve this morning. The ensemble mean for last night's run was much farther offshore with the blocking than the operational, with lower heights over us.

 

 

Based on the 12Z Canadian... I think the 12Z ECMWF will go the other way and be warmer than the 00Z run (which was not that cold).

 

Just a guess... we will know in an hour.

 

Feels like we are hanging on by a thread on the GFS runs.    Its not solid... and that usually kills us when it moderates as the event approaches.    Its not about what is shown at face value on the 12Z GFS in the 8-11 day period... that is unlikely to verify anyways.   

[Jesse]

Based on the 12Z Canadian... I think the 12Z ECMWF will go the other way and be warmer than the 00Z run (which was not that cold).

 

Just a guess... we will know in an hour.

 

Feels like we are hanging on by a thread on the GFS runs. Its not solid... and that usually kills us when it moderates as the event approaches. Its not about what is shown at face value on the 12Z GFS in the 8-11 day period... that is unlikely to verify anyways.

Good points. Think negative!

[Gradient Keeper]

I bet there will be a lot of ensemble members as cold or colder than the operational.

 

I also expect the Euro to improve this morning. The ensemble mean for last night's run was much farther offshore with the blocking than the operational, with lower heights over us.

Ya, the Euro ensembles were better with the anomalies too. Hopefully so

[westcoastexpat]

Can we keep the needless sarcasm-laced digs out of this thread please?

[Gradient Keeper]

Can we keep the needless sarcasm-laced digs out of this thread please?

You must be new here. Are you serious? lol Sarcasm is deeply entrenched here and over back on Western for YEARS.

[TT-SEA]

Good points. Think negative!

 

Just being honest.

 

Just thinking positive is a silly way to understand and predict the weather.     How does that matter at all??    Are we a football team??   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just being honest.

 

Just thinking positive is a silly way to understand and predict the weather.     How does that matter at all??    Are we a football team??   

Yes Tim it is a game. Jeez...

[Gradient Keeper]

Yes Tim it is a game. Jeez...

Wait are you saying it isn't a game? ..... I'm more confused than a retarded virgin in a w-h-o-r-e house.

[TT-SEA]

Yes Tim it is a game. Jeez...

 

 

Come on team.   Think positive.   Believe it and you can do it!