January 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

That's what happens when everyone is scared away by the prospect of being labled a wishcaster for taking about anything good.

 

Really?

 

Give it a rest.

 

There is a HUGE difference between months of silly, irrational optimism and a genuine opportunity only a week away.

 

Everyone here knows that and you are intentionally being annoying.  

[stuffradio]

That's what happens when everyone is scared away by the prospect of being labled a wishcaster for talking about anything good.

You are the one labeling people as wishcasters.

[Jesse]

I will say this. If we do get any kind of arctic air, odds are low we will see another completely dry event (for places up north) like December.

[Jesse]

You are the one labeling people as wishcasters.

Is this a joke?

[Jesse]

You live in a great location. One day you are bound to get slammed by some great winter weather.

I'm moving back to the I-5 corridor this summer. The next month or two are basically my last shot at scoring in a colder climate. That is, until I move to Montana in a few years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know the thing about the 12z is that the actual evolution that leads to the arctic outbreak is in the believable range and the arctic front itself is within 10 days. Details will flucuate wildly of course, but it looks like we could be moving toward something good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm moving back to the I-5 corridor this summer. The next month or two are basically my last shot at scoring in a colder climate. That is, until I move to Montana in a few years.

 

Oregon or Washington?

[TT-SEA]

You know the thing about the 12z is that the actual evolution that leads to the arctic outbreak is in the believable range and the arctic front itself is within 10 days. Details will flucuate wildly of course, but it looks like we could be moving toward something good.

 

 

I have a feeling this might end up dry in WA if the 500mb pattern plays out like the 12Z GFS.

 

Its a slow seepage like we had in December.     That was pathetic for precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a feeling this might end up dry in WA if the 500mb pattern plays out like the 12Z GFS.

 

Its a slow seepage like we had in December.     That was pathetic for precip.

 

Somewhere in Oregon gets nailed again...But at least maybe there will be overrunning this time at the end.

[Guest Monty67]

I'm moving back to the I-5 corridor this summer. The next month or two are basically my last shot at scoring in a colder climate. That is, until I move to Montana in a few years.

Hopefully you get something decent before you move. It would seem as though you picked a poor 2 years to live out there.

 

I am moving to a snowier location on Thursday, hoping February dumps on us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully you get something decent before you move. It would seem as though you picked a poor 2 years to live out there.

 

I am moving to a snowier location on Thursday, hoping February dumps on us.

 

I bet the gorge gets nailed next winter lol

[TT-SEA]

Somewhere in Oregon gets nailed again...But at least maybe there will be overrunning this time at the end.

 

We had an overrunning event last time... and it was pouring rain by 10 a.m.    

 

Not too excited about that... at least its over quickly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had an overrunning event last time... and it was pouring rain by 10 a.m.  

 

Not too excited about that... at least its over quickly. 

 

The overrunning event was like a week and a half after the arctic blast...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest ensemble mean yet. The operational is kind of a cold outlier, but there are actually several members that get as cold or colder a couple days earlier!

[TT-SEA]

The overrunning event was like a week and a half after the arctic blast...

 

February of 2006 says snow with arctic air is not a given this time of year.     Far from it.

[Timmy]

I bought a short sale home at 1500ft elevation with 4 ft tall grass and blackberries overgrown on the lawn.  This weekend I was able to mow it down with as much ease as in june or july.  That is my silver lining in this drought.  And now I get to participate in the high elevation club snow club with Tim and Andrew. Sorry Jesse, it looks like your area will no longer be a snowy spot since you moved there...

[Jesse]

Oregon or Washington?

Most likely Washington.

[bainbridgekid]

Most likely Washington.

You still planning on teaching?

[Jesse]

You still planning on teaching?

 

That's how it's looking right now.

 

I am torn between my two passions; education and geology. I may end up just teaching geology!

[Guest Monty67]

February of 2006 says snow with arctic air is not a given this time of year.     Far from it.

February 2006? That must have been some pretty modified arctic air. No lows below 20 and only 1 high below 40 up here that entire month.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jesse is not a wishcaster. Jesus Christ.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This place is getting crazy. lol

[Jesse]

Really?

 

Give it a rest.

 

There is a HUGE difference between months of silly, irrational optimism and a genuine opportunity only a week away.

 

Everyone here knows that and you are intentionally being annoying.  

 

I will count myself among the many here, if that is the case.

[Jesse]

I bet the gorge gets nailed next winter lol

 

Yeah, probably.

 

This winter so far and last winter have easily been the two most inactive back to back winters out here in years. December 2013 and January 2013 were both very cold months in Stevenson, but pretty quiet all things considered. Hoping February 2014 can make up for that in a big way.

[Jesse]

Jesse is not a wishcaster. Jesus Christ.

 

Thanks. Appreciate the support.

[bainbridgekid]

February 2006? That must have been some pretty modified arctic air. No lows below 20 and only 1 high below 40 up here that entire month.

It was actually quite intense at the upper levels.

 

850mb temps dropped below -15 for Seattle on the 17th. The cold came mainly from the East though so it was not an ideal situation for Cold in Western WA and BC.

 

Portland did better and had a daytime high of 31 on the 17th.

 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2006/021715.png

[Guest Monty67]

It was actually quite intense at the upper levels.

 

850mb temps dropped below -15 for Seattle on the 17th. The cold came mainly from the East though so it was not an ideal situation for Cold in Western WA and BC.

 

Portland did better and had a daytime high of 31 on the 17th.

Thanks for the info. And yes that setup will underperform up here everytime. The low at YYJ on the 17th was only 30F.

[bainbridgekid]

Weird setup on the Euro

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012712!!chart.gif

[Guest Winterdog]

Very good looking run! Looks like a reload coming just after day 10 too.

[Phil]

You know the thing about the 12z is that the actual evolution that leads to the arctic outbreak is in the believable range and the arctic front itself is within 10 days. Details will flucuate wildly of course, but it looks like we could be moving toward something good.

Not to be rude, but weren't you downplaying the whole event last night based on a few bad GFS runs?

 

I'm rooting for you guys. If anyone deserves to score at this point, it's the PNW.

[BLI snowman]

Euro has a backdoor arctic push. The pattern looks screwy as the vort lobe becomes dislodged from the main branch of the northern jet and the pattern takes on a split flow look. Not a very healthy block. 

[Phil]

That is, until I move to Montana in a few years.

Oh you lucky dog. My wife refuses to even consider Montana. Don't be surprised if I pop by with some cuban sticks and moonshine.

[Jesse]

Euro has a backdoor arctic push. The pattern looks screwy as the vort lobe becomes dislodged from the main branch of the northern jet and the pattern takes on a split flow look. Not a very healthy block.

Yeah, I would like to see the subtropical ridge better melded with the high latitude block. It is several days out still, and at least both 12z runs gave us cold air.

 

Maybe the Euro ensemble will be a little more solid with the offshore ridge.

[Phil]

Euro has a backdoor arctic push. The pattern looks screwy as the vort lobe becomes dislodged from the main branch of the northern jet and the pattern takes on a split flow look. Not a very healthy block.

The Euro loves to hang vorticity back around meridional flow..so you get a lot of pseudo cutoff lows. I wouldn't worry about it..

[Jesse]

Oh you lucky dog. My wife refuses to even consider Montana. Don't be surprised if I pop by with some cuban sticks and moonshine.

Bozeman or bust for me. My girlfriend has family back there so I've been visiting a lot for the past year. I think I'm sold.

[BLI snowman]

The Euro loves to hang vorticity back around meridional flow..so you get a lot of pseudo cutoff lows. I wouldn't worry about it..

 

It's a constant issue with it, it seems like.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty decent suite of 12z operational runs eh?... Ensembles improved too. Not biting yet, not even excited, but I am somewhat optimistic. I am really interested on how the EURO Ensembles will look. Hopefully we build from here with 00z transpiring roughly the same and start a new, colder trend.

 

It's pretty D**n cold here I'll tell you that much! 36.5, cloudy, and howling east wind 35-40mph. It is likely 95-105mph(if not stronger) at Crown Point, but I have no idea the sensor is down as is Corbett's (Power outage)

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en
Chilly, and gotta love that cold low dropping down the Coast day 9-10

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Deweydog]

What are the Japanese ensembles showing?

[50shadesofvan]

Latest blog post everyone: "Ding Dong The Ridge Is Dead"

 

http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/26/ding-dong-the-ridge-is-dead

 

Ensembles definitely showing improvement last runs. We'll see what the operationals say at 00Z and see if they keep the trend going.