June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

One caveat..my above analysis is reliant on the GEFS depiction of forcing progression and climatology.

 

The ECMWF/GGEM ensembles paint a different picture, with more IO/MT forcing and less EPAC forcing. Taken verbatim, the analog suite changes somewhat.

 

If you throw in the towel and look at all post-1950 ENSO analogs, you get this for July.

 

[Phil]

The best overall matches as far as background forcing/ENSO progression are concerned. Variable-aggregated.

 

[Phil]

So, it seems like regardless of how I stack the analogs, a troughy western US is favored in the means.

 

I guess I could try sorting based on antecedent EPO/NAO waves, given they're somewhat anomalous this year. Maybe I'll try that for the heck of it.

[TT-SEA]

So, it seems like regardless of how I stack the analogs, a troughy western US is favored in the means.

 

I guess I could try sorting based on antecedent EPO/NAO waves, given they're somewhat anomalous this year. Maybe I'll try that for the heck of it.

 

I thought you have been saying that for months now?

[TT-SEA]

Latest update:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.6.30.2016.gif

[BLI snowman]

I guess if you're uber-sensitive to it, sure.  But really it's just... normal.

 

Other than 2015. 

[Phil]

I thought you have been saying that for months now?

I have, yes. What's your point here?

[Jesse]

Other than 2015.

Hints of the 2050 normal.

[BLI snowman]

Hints of the 2050 normal.

 

This will likely be the last cold July we will see here. Ever.

 

A cold July in 2042 will look a lot like July 2009. 

[Jesse]

This will likely be the last cold July we will see here. Ever.

 

A cold July in 2042 will look a lot like July 2009.

At very least it will be the last one Tim sees here, since it's likely his wife will be making him move after this summer.

[TT-SEA]

At very least it will be the last one Tim sees here, since it's likely his wife will be making him move after this summer.

 

More fun stuff from Jesse!    He sure is getting better.   

 

For the record... my wife has been praising the weather this summer.    She is not a big fan of heat.    Sunday and Monday were even too hot for her and she was giddy about the drizzle yesterday morning for her garden.  

 

She also runs in the evening and called yesterday "perfect".  

[Jesse]

More fun stuff from Jesse! He sure is getting better.

 

For the record... my wife has been praising the weather this summer. She is not a big fan of heat. Sunday and Monday were even too hot for her and she was giddy about the drizzle yesterday morning for her garden.

 

She also runs in the evening and called yesterday "perfect".

Glad to hear it.

 

I'm just remembering toll that 2010 and 2011 took.

[TT-SEA]

Glad to hear it.

 

I'm just remembering toll that 2010 and 2011 took.

 

The worst of it for her was the 32 straight days with rain in May and June of 2010.    That really was crazy... you could not get outside at a time of year when you really want to get outside.   Marine layer does not usually cause that problem.   She is not one to complain unless its really extreme.  

 

Thanks for your smarmy concern though!  

[Phil]

Looks like, in developing La Niñas, the 180W-90E-90W forcing gradient is a good predictor of the NAO/NAM state. Interesting to note that older La Niñas featured more WPAC forcing vs modern Niñas.

 

Years w/ more dateline forcing and post-90W forcing (somewhat similar to June of this year). Notice the +NAO.

 

 

Years with less dateline forcing and more post-90E forcing. Notice the -NAO.

 

[Deweydog]

Looks like, in developing La Niñas, the 180W-90E-90W forcing gradient is a good predictor of the NAO/NAM state. Interesting to note that older La Niñas featured more WPAC forcing vs modern Niñas.

 

Years w/ more dateline forcing and post-90W forcing (somewhat similar to June of this year). Notice the +NAO.

 

image.pngimage.png

 

Years with less dateline forcing and more post-90E forcing. Notice the -NAO.

 

image.pngimage.png

 

Does this mean lots of snow???

[Phil]

Does this mean lots of snow???

Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter).

 

The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr!

 

[Deweydog]

Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would. Map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter.

 

The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range: image.jpeg

 

Good thing we're getting it out the way now.  Those slick roads make traffic a nightmare! LOL!

[Phil]

Good thing we're getting it out the way now. Those slick roads make traffic a nightmare! LOL!

Summer is the new winter (our ancestors living in the early Holocene would agree).

[TT-SEA]

Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter).

 

The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr!

 

image.jpeg

 

Luckily its the clown GFS at long range!   

[TT-SEA]

Does this mean lots of snow???

 

 

Possibly mid-August and beyond once Nina forcing becomes the dominant background state.  

 

I would not expect much accumulating snow until late August though due to sun angle issues.   Possibly earlier with an arctic air mass though.  

[TT-SEA]

Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter).

 

The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr!

 

image.jpeg

 

 

The ECMWF just 36 hours before the time frame on that map is not quite as frigid.   Might be able to avoid freezing temps if the ECMWF is correct.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-11astI.png

[Phil]

Luckily its the clown GFS at long range!

Well, it's the GFS ensemble mean (sum of all members). So there was a notable shift all-around.

 

Still, it's the GFS, so...yeah, need to be careful.

[Phil]

The ECMWF just 36 hours before the time frame on that map is not quite as frigid. Might be able to avoid freezing temps if the ECMWF is correct.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls18/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls18-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-11astI.png

Well, the OP ECMWF has been just as chaotic in the skill scores as the GFS since Tuesday. Rough period coming up for the modeling (unstable/transitory in forcing aggregate given ongoing via hi-freq overlap).

 

The noise will lead to medium range chaos, however the overall progression looks the same regardless of how everything shakes out. July should transition into a -AAM/-PNA after an early-month spike in both representative indices.

[Phil]

Through d10, the 12z EPS is a mess, poor agreement after d7. No real trend except for more -EPO/-NAM (higher heights poleward of PNA domain).

 

The one trend I'm seeing across guidance is for a stronger AK/EPO block. The 12z EPS trended much higher with heights from the Aleutians to AK/EPO and the pole/NAM.

[Phil]

Dateline subsidence showing up in the extended range EPS (mid-July). The CCKW/MJO wave causing problems for the modeling (frequency is borderline for classification) is currently propagating into the EPAC.

 

[TT-SEA]

Dateline subsidence showing up in the extended range EPS (mid-July). The CCKW/MJO wave causing problems for the modeling (frequency is borderline for classification) is currently propagating into the EPAC.

 

image.jpeg

 

 

This image clears it all up!   

[Phil]

This image clears it all up!

Look at the smaller image below the VP/KW diagram as a longitude/latitude reference. The forecasted anomalies are sorted longitudinally with latitudinal averaging between 5N/5/S within that domain space.

[TT-SEA]

Drier air definitely in place up here. Dewpoint is down 1 degree since this time yesterday at SEA.

 

#chappedlips

[snow_wizard]

Lol, well 6 months from now this certainly would (map obtained via Michael Ventrice/WSI on Twitter).

 

The 12z GEFS swung much cooler in hand medium range. Brrrrr!

 

image.jpeg

 

What a difference a year makes!  Nice to see anomalies like that anytime of year IMO.

[snow_wizard]

The solar activity has been astonishingly low already.  We are seeing major runs of spotless days years before the minimum is expected to occur.  Way ahead of the schedule we saw during the last cycle.  Hopefully we will finally be able to verify that the recent grand maximum had a lot to do with the warming of the past several decades.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  The first half of July actually looks cooler than normal.  Pretty big news in what has been a century of mostly torrid summers thus far.  I am loving the comfortable temps the past few days.

[snow_wizard]

Anomalous strong high pressure over the NE Pacific has dominated much of June and will continue well into July.  That should keep things near to below normal most of the time.  Mostly dry with comfortable temps is pretty hard to beat in the summer.  No need for heat.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows significant cloudiness and cool weather for the next 10 days at least... and probably beyond.     Sunshine is going to be hard to come by after today.

 

4th of July has trended much cooler and cloudier as well.  

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF shows significant cloudiness and cool weather for the next 10 days at least... and probably beyond. Sunshine is going to be hard to come by after today.

 

4th of July has trended much cooler and cloudier as well.

Gotta love that La Niña convective background. I've noticed in cases like this, where we're on the threshold (as far as the feedback loops are concerned), models will underestimate the tendency to return to the said background state after excursions from it (they'll trend stronger with -PNA/-AAM as we get closer to the forecasted excursion).

[TT-SEA]

Gotta love that La Niña convective background. I've noticed in cases like this, where we're on the threshold (as far as the feedback loops are concerned), models will underestimate the tendency to return to the said background state after excursions from it (they'll trend stronger with -PNA/-AAM as we get closer to the forecasted excursion).

 

Definitely has been the case recently.

[Phil]

Definitely has been the case recently.

I might've underestimated it myself, slow bias alive and well.

 

The system just wants to build heights out over the Pacific this summer, and that sort of persistence during transitional periods is usually indicative of the background state going forward.

[TT-SEA]

I should mention that the above outlook was for the Seattle area.   Looking at the ECMWF detailed map... the Portland area fares better next week with the main focus of troughing over southern BC.

[Phil]

I should mention that the above outlook was for the Seattle area. Looking at the ECMWF detailed map... the Portland area fares better next week with the main focus of troughing over southern BC.

Definitely less precipitation down there, but still solidly below average temperature wise.

[Phil]

Through day11, the 12z EPS has trended somewhat deeper with the western troughing/-PNA, but the bigger shift is a much stronger SE/E US ridge and stronger -NAO. That's two consecutive EPS runs to follow this trend, in regards to both.

[Phil]

The 18z GFS is attempting a weird vorticity handoff between the western trough and the tropical cyclone in the eastern tropical Pacific. Bizarre exchanges of energy often lead to bizarre patterns later on, so this run should be interesting.