Tom Posted December 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2016 CPC has update their seasonal outlook and we begin with January... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t14.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p14.2c.gif JFM period...strong signal for the OV/Lakes storm track to continue.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t01.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p01.2c.gif FMA... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/t02.2c.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/p02.2c.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 2, 2017 Report Share Posted January 2, 2017 Anyone with new maps for future winter 2017 predictions? Curious to see if any changes are in the works. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 3, 2017 Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 I found one......this is from TWC: Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 3, 2017 Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 I found one......this is from TWC: Hmm..keeps lower MI at or above normal. Looking more and more like a Wisconsin and west winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 3, 2017 Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 No way is IA going to be much below avg.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double D Posted January 3, 2017 Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 This is heading into a very disappointing winter imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2017 This is heading into a very disappointing winter imo.I have to agree with this, esp with the way the AO behaved in the Autumn you would think we would have more blocking this Winter. Instead, Mother Nature said "nasso fast". A very strong long term long wave ridge has become established in the middle of the country that has been a common theme this Winter and storm systems just weaken as the they head across the country except for the far northern tier. Not looking pretty over the next 2+ weeks...time to take a long break Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's like sitting in hold'em poker with a really good hand but not seeing the only turn card that could hurt your hand. Lol. Do you go all in and hope for the best or fold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Always go all in! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Always go all in! LolLol. There's more truth than you may know in that answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Haha. With a winter like we have had so far you got nothing to lose my friend. My glass is still half full for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 4, 2017 Report Share Posted January 4, 2017 Haha. With a winter like we have had so far you got nothing to lose my friend. My glass is still half full for now.Mine too. I'd like to put up a couple of 4"+ events by seasons end. I think it's still possible. I've noticed the eastern pacific around Baja has been warming up steadily since around late November. That's usually a decent sign for things in the second half here but I've been wrong before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 11, 2017 Report Share Posted January 11, 2017 So far, this winter is looking more like an El Nino type. Too many rain systems followed by colder temps, or snow changing to rain and warmer before it turns colder again behind the storm. The only time I can say we had some real winter weather was from early December to right about Christmas. After that period, the weather began turning sloppy up until now. Curious ta see how the rest unfolds. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 So far, this winter is looking more like an El Nino type. Too many rain systems followed by colder temps, or snow changing to rain and warmer before it turns colder again behind the storm. The only time I can say we had some real winter weather was from early December to right about Christmas. After that period, the weather began turning sloppy up until now. Curious ta see how the rest unfolds.Going strictly off teleconnections and qbo it's almost as textbook as it gets for a weak Niña, +QBO, negative PNA. The negative PNA is what has really been screwing most of us. That looks to change going into February. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 12, 2017 Report Share Posted January 12, 2017 Going strictly off teleconnections and qbo it's almost as textbook as it gets for a weak Niña, +QBO, negative PNA. The negative PNA is what has really been screwing most of us. That looks to change going into February.Lets hope so because once March rolls on in, my mode starts changing slowly to Spring. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2017 That is what I'm thinking also. December will probably start off real nice and active for most of our members, then as the season wears on I think the west coast ridge becomes a dominant pattern and could very well over whelm the entire SE ridge. Feb/Mar could be an awesome second half and into Spring. This season is going to have some legs.December def started off very active and wet/snowy for the 1st half of the month around the Midwest and Lakes but flipped big later in the month. Volatility prevailed and then the almighty Jan torch kicked in mid/late Jan. The western ridge will mature mid/late Feb and into March. Hope we can score some snow before the season is over with! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 15, 2017 Report Share Posted February 15, 2017 December def started off very active and wet/snowy for the 1st half of the month around the Midwest and Lakes but flipped big later in the month. Volatility prevailed and then the almighty Jan torch kicked in mid/late Jan. The western ridge will mature mid/late Feb and into March. Hope we can score some snow before the season is over with! You NEED snow buddy! I've managed 91% of normal and without all the torching, could give this winter an "A" but it's grade continues to drop as the stretch of brown ground days continue. Looking forward to sunny and 60º Saturday. Might be taking the fam to the windy city for the day if things work out. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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