September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

The regime has to change at some point. I think we're there or just about there. I don't know why but I'm really excited about the upcoming winter, unlike the last few years...where I just didn't think we had a chance at a good winter.

 

Today was cloudy and 60F with off and on showers, sometimes heavy sometimes not. My basil is looking forward to the next week though. 

 

There's a reason I didn't even make a winter forecast for you guys the past two winters.   Looking at most indicators, it just got too depressing. Definitely looking up more this winter.

 

Plus, a third winter as bad for the lowlands as the last two would be just nuts - completely unprecedented.

[Deweydog]

There's a reason I didn't even make a winter forecast for you guys the past two winters. Looking at most indicators, it just got too depressing. Definitely looking up more this winter.

 

Plus, a third winter as bad for the lowlands as the last two would be just nuts - completely unprecedented.

Thank you for restraining yourself from issuing one. If you had, I'm fairly certain this place would have shut its doors as your prowess and word power would have sent people into a positive anomaly hibernation.

 

Not making a forecast at least left a glimmer of hope, bolstered by Phil's "December 2008 redux, only snowier" which was at least close as most places came in just a hair under their 2008 totals.

[Front Ranger]

Well, the NOAA # for July was .11 while the UW # was 1.25.

 

I guess it depends on which source you prefer to immerse yourself in.

 

We'll know in a week or so...

 

Yeah, UW will probably be neutralish/slightly positive. Even if it only dropped to +.5, that would be the lowest since Feb 2014.

 

And thus far, seems to be continuing to drop this month. The trend is our friend, and it's safe to say we're out of the crazy +PDO regime that dominated for a couple years.

[Front Ranger]

Thank you for restraining yourself from issuing one. If you had, I'm fairly certain this place would have shut its doors as your prowess and word power would have sent people into a positive anomaly hibernation.

 

Not making a forecast at least left a glimmer of hope, bolstered by Phil's "December 2008 redux, only snowier" which was at least close as most places came in just a hair under their 2008 totals.

 

 

Hey, them's the facts. I issued an outlook every winter from 2007-2013. You know, the glory years.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, UW will probably be neutralish/slightly positive. Even if it only dropped to +.5, that would be the lowest since Feb 2014.

 

And thus far, seems to be continuing to drop this month. The trend is our friend, and it's safe to say we're out of the crazy +PDO regime that dominated for a couple years.

Based on a pretty consistent disparity, the August number should be in the .3 to .5 range. Not neutral, but definitely closer.

 

It indeed looks like this unprecedented (cold phase) run is about to come to an end. Nina forcing, or at least some form of it, is doing its thing.

[Deweydog]

 

Hey, them's the facts. I issued an outlook every winter from 2007-2013. You know, the glory years.

Fair weather fan.

[Front Ranger]

Fair weather fan.

 

Exactly. And speaking of the PDO, you might notice a correlation......

[Deweydog]

Exactly. And speaking of the PDO, you might notice a correlation......

When it's low you think you can forecast like a god and when it skyrockets you disappear for over a year?

[Front Ranger]

When it's low you think you can forecast like a god and when it skyrockets you disappear for over a year?

 

Nope, that's not it. I came back when it was still a mile high. Try again.

[Deweydog]

Nope, that's not it. I came back when it was still a mile high. Try again.

That's all I got.

 

When the going gets tough, the tough leave and then come back a little later with a new name. At least that's what Billy Ocean taught us.

[Front Ranger]

That's all I got.

 

When the going gets tough, the tough leave and then come back a little later with a new name. At least that's what Billy Ocean taught us.

 

But I left in Dec 2013, when the going wasn't so tough. Just doesn't add up. It may have actually had zero to do with this forum or PNW weather.

 

Anyhow, enough about me. Correlation should have been easy: +PDO = no winter forecast. Time is running out for 2016!

[Deweydog]

But I left in Dec 2013, when the going wasn't so tough. Just doesn't add up. It may have actually had zero to do with this forum or PNW weather.

 

Anyhow, enough about me. Correlation should have been easy: +PDO = no winter forecast. Time is running out for 2016!

I'd wait until after the election. It would be irresponsible to make such a meaningful splash prior to November 8th.

[Front Ranger]

I'd wait until after the election. It would be irresponsible to make such a meaningful splash prior to November 8th.

 

Valid point. Although, it's practically cheating to post a winter forecast in November. Layup.

[Deweydog]

Valid point. Although, it's practically cheating to post a winter forecast in November. Layup.

Should have done this year's last year. Missed opportunity to at least mildly challenge your uncanny skills.

[Front Ranger]

Should have done this year's last year. Missed opportunity to at least mildly challenge your uncanny skills.

I actually created my 2016-17 winter forecast before joining the forum. May have to make a couple tweaks before the big release, though...did NOT anticipate so much global warming/UHI back then.

[Deweydog]

I actually created my 2016-17 winter forecast before joining the forum. May have to make a couple tweaks before the big release, though...did NOT anticipate so much global warming/UHI back then.

We squared you away on that stuff. Your reincarnated self is a much more reasonable version what with the shedding of the skeezy salesman montra.

[BLI snowman]

Looking like a warm one next week. We may yet pull off a 90 this month!

[Jesse]

Looking like a warm one next week. We may yet pull off a 90 this month!

Generally takes a little more than 15-16c at 850mb to hit 90 in mid-September.

 

But your 85 or lower threshold for this month MAY be in trouble!

[Jesse]

00z Euro was pretty butt-ugly beyond day 6.

 

Combine that with today's heartbreakingly balmy 75/60 at PDX and it's a sad day for cold lovers.

 

It was a fun 7-8 days while it lasted.

[Deweydog]

00z Euro was pretty butt-ugly beyond day 6.

 

Combine that with today's heartbreakingly balmy 75/60 at PDX and it's a sad day for cold lovers.

 

It was a fun 7-8 days while it lasted.

Yet another lovely evening for practice.

[BLI snowman]

Generally takes a little more than 15-16c at 850mb to hit 90 in mid-September.

 

But your 85 or lower threshold for this month MAY be in trouble!

 

00z Euro shows just that 

[Phil]

Holy crap @ this storm video taken in Minnesota. Winds just keep intensifying until the trees basically explode and debris starts ripping off the house. Behaves like a derecho with the pulsing, prolonged wind cycles.

 

Have to watch the full thing:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&persist_app=1&v=EuPc57cVB_I

[Weather101]

00z Euro was pretty butt-ugly beyond day 6.

 

Combine that with today's heartbreakingly balmy 75/60 at PDX and it's a sad day for cold lovers.

 

It was a fun 7-8 days while it lasted.

Only September!

[Phil]

00z Euro was pretty butt-ugly beyond day 6.

 

Combine that with today's heartbreakingly balmy 75/60 at PDX and it's a sad day for cold lovers.

 

It was a fun 7-8 days while it lasted.

The 06z GooFuS is quite trough-happy, though!

[Phil]

New ECMWF monthlies are out. Looks like copy of the recent winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 with a big, fat, block centered over the EPO domain (NEPAC/Alaska), +NAO, and large trough centered in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Need that NAO vortex displaced farther west.

 

However, the western ridge is centered somewhat offshore relative to the west coast, so it's more of a 2013-14 look than a 2014-15 look..maybe providing the opportunity for retrogression(s) of the ridge.

[Phil]

I wonder if the ECMWF seasonal is underplaying the Niña..already underestimated the Niña circulation/-AAM integral in the tropics for July and August.

[Jesse]

New ECMWF monthlies are out. Looks like copy of the recent winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 with a big, fat, block centered over the EPO domain (NEPAC/Alaska), +NAO, and large trough centered in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Need that NAO vortex displaced farther west.

 

However, the western ridge is centered somewhat offshore relative to the west coast, so it's more of a 2013-14 look than a 2014-15 look..maybe providing the opportunity for retrogression(s) of the ridge.

So all of this earth-shattering regime change stuff may give us a shot at another winter like the last few?

[stuffradio]

So all of this earth-shattering regime change stuff may give us a shot at another winter like the last few?

Change you can believe in!

[Phil]

So all of this earth-shattering regime change stuff may give us a shot at another winter like the last few?

That's not my prediction, FWIW. If there's one thing seasonal models struggle with, it's large scale regime change. Modeling refused to terminate the -PDO/-PNA cell in 2014, and kept trying to bring it back for 2015. I personally expected the PDO/PNA cell to flip and remain in a positive state through the entirety 2015, even without the help of a super-niño.

 

Same thing but opposite this go around. I think the PDO/PNA will flip modestly negative (low frequency basis) starting in late 2016 or 2017, an will remain modestly negative until the typical backresonant El Niño response to solar-minimum, probably in 2019 or 2020, before a much deeper Niña/-PNA/-PDO regime takes over in the early 2020s. I'm quite confident in this prediction.

[Front Ranger]

So all of this earth-shattering regime change stuff may give us a shot at another winter like the last few?

He did say it looks more like 2013-14...

[Jesse]

He did say it looks more like 2013-14...

I'm mostly being silly.

[Jesse]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS mean and control run are warm through day 15.   Again.  

[stuffradio]

Nice day.

[Front Ranger]

Dice nay.

[wx_statman]

Mean night.

[Jesse]

Dice nay.

Dice clay.

 

[Front Ranger]

Dice clay.

 

 

Oh good lord, not the Dice Man.

[wx_statman]

00z Euro was pretty butt-ugly beyond day 6.

 

Combine that with today's heartbreakingly balmy 75/60 at PDX and it's a sad day for cold lovers.

 

It was a fun 7-8 days while it lasted.

 

PDX is rubbing it in today. 

[Deweydog]

PDX is rubbing it in today.

Should be into the 50's by midnight!

 

That'll soothe some restless nerves.