September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

"Would" is not declarative.

Yeah, I thought that was a pretty weird example. Apparently Tim was just in the mood for a rant.

[TT-SEA]

My completely objective opinion is that I don't play favorites. I call out anyone, including myself. This is evident by the fact that I manage to offend just about everyone at some point. Including myself.

 

You just don't like being called out, period.

 

I am called out all the time.   Inherent part of the discussion here.

 

Respectfully challenging people should be a fundamental part of the discourse.   

 

Respectfully is the key.   I was respectful.   

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I thought that was a pretty weird example. Apparently Tim was just in the mood for a rant.

 

 

A continuation might not be something to behold.   Saying it would be is over-confident.    Needless to say.  

[Bryant]

I am called out all the time. Inherent part of the discussion here.

 

Respectfully challenging people should be a fundamental part of the discourse.

 

Respectfully is the key. I was respectful.

You aren't respectful though. You throw insults left and right at Jim which you think fly under the radar. It's painfully obvious everytime

[Front Ranger]

A continuation might not be something to behold. Saying it would be is over-confident. Needless to say.

Only you care.

[TT-SEA]

You aren't respectful though. You throw insults left and right at Jim which you think fly under the radar. It's painfully obvious everytime

 

I would venture to say that you have insulted me directly far beyond any personal insults you perceive me 'throwing' at Jim.    I did not insult him tonight and rarely insult him personally.   I respect him as a person and a cohort is this weather forum mania for over a decade.

 

I merely said 2007-08... which is a valid example.    Everything since has been another waste of time.   Just let it be.   It was a fair response.   

[TT-SEA]

Only you care.

 

 

Only you seem to care when challenging me on tiny details just to be a jerk.   But you do it anyways!  

[Front Ranger]

Only you seem to care when challenging me on tiny details just to be a jerk. But you do it anyways!

You just lectured us on being respectful, then you call me a jerk.

 

Ah...classic Tim.

[TT-SEA]

Looks consistently warm but not anything extreme.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

You just lectured us on being respectful, then you call me a jerk.

 

Ah...classic Tim.

 

 

No... at times you are just challenging me on tiny details to be a jerk.    You know that is true.   That does not mean you are a jerk.   Sometimes you play the part though.  

[wx_statman]

Always good to rediscover the fact an upcoming winter ***could*** be very disappointing for some.

 

Early/late brutal/normal winter coming up for some/all.

[Deweydog]

Early/late brutal/normal winter coming up for some/all.

48/38 for PDX on Christmas Day.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z GFS MOS does not show 60s now for Sunday in Seattle.     74, 74, 71 the next 3 days at SEA.   

 

More noticeable drop at PDX... 80, 82, 72.

 

 

00Z ECMWF has 66 at SEA on Sunday... and 69 at PDX.

[Front Ranger]

48/38 for PDX on Christmas Day.

Good. No one wants snow on Christmas. Save it for when it matters, January. There's a 800 lb gorilla on our backs!

[Weather101]

48/38 for PDX on Christmas Day.

57/44. Cancel Winter?

[TT-SEA]

Good. No one wants snow on Christmas. Save it for when it matters, January. There's a 800 lb gorilla on our backs!

Might be the year!

[Weather101]

Glad to see Carolina get a loss out of the gate. Could help the Seahawks. Plus that punk Cam lost the very next game to the same team after storming off from his Super Bowl post game media session.

I have no problem with him storming off after losing the Super Bowl, You shouldn't either.

[TT-SEA]

Tendency in the models now to cut-off part of the weekend trough over Oregon and Northern CA early next week.   Keeps the warmth in check for sure.   

 

00Z ECMWF is showing this as well... about 2 degrees cooler for Tuesday compared to the 12Z run.  Now shows 75 at SEA and 80 at PDX that day.

[wx_statman]

Good. No one wants snow on Christmas. Save it for when it matters, January. There's a 800 lb gorilla on our backs!

 

An 800 lb/500 mb gorilla....

[ShawniganLake]

I have no problem with him storming off after losing the Super Bowl, You shouldn't either.

He should have gone with " I'm just here so I don't get fined" on repeat for 10 minutes. That's the kind of interview a Seahawks fan can get behind.

[Deweydog]

Tendency in the models now to cut-off part of the weekend trough over Oregon and Northern CA early next week. Keeps the warmth in check for sure.

 

00Z ECMWF is showing this as well... about 2 degrees cooler for Tuesday compared to the 12Z run. Now shows 75 at SEA and 80 at PDX that day.

Damage control!

[snow_wizard]

The WRF indicates it may not even hit 80 in Seattle next week now.  In fact it cools to normal by Thursday.

[BLI snowman]

The 90 degree stuff may have to wait until October.

[wx_statman]

The 90 degree stuff may have to wait until October.

 

We're due.

[BLI snowman]

We're due.

 

I figure we have about a month left where it's climatologically possible. Sun gets too weak after October 10.

 

Fortunately for Jesse, 60+ lows are possible at basically any point of the year.

[Deweydog]

We're due.

Could have got one out of the way in 2014 but the anxiety crowd just HAD to pray it away and leave it hanging out there...

[wx_statman]

I figure we have about a month left where it's climatologically possible. Sun gets too weak after October 10.

 

Fortunately for Jesse, 60+ lows are possible at basically any point of the year.

 

 

1980 saw to that. 

 

I was talking about 90 degree heat in October in general. It seems to come in bunches in the Willamette Valley. We had 1932-1934-1936 and then 1987 & 1988. Its going to have to happen again at some point...

[Deweydog]

PDX!

 

[wx_statman]

Could have got one out of the way in 2014 but the anxiety crowd just HAD to pray it away and leave it hanging out there...

 

We did pull off 85's in back to back Octobers. A third would be absurd. 

 

Competing forces here...

[Deweydog]

We did pull off 85's in back to back Octobers. A third would be absurd.

 

Competing forces here...

Unfinished business!

[BLI snowman]

 

1980 saw to that. 

 

I was talking about 90 degree heat in October in general. It seems to come in bunches in the Willamette Valley. We had 1932-1934-1936 and then 1987 & 1988. Its going to have to happen again at some point...

 

Don't forget about 1952, 1970, and 1980.

 

Real mixed bags of winters followed, so it's going to be a real guessing game for us after it happens this year!

[wx_statman]

PDX!

 

 

If you want actual shots of 1950's Portland watch the first three minutes. They actually made a movie about a Soviet nuclear strike on Portland. Filmed right here in town using local "talent."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueEl7A7KaHA

[wx_statman]

Don't forget about 1952, 1970, and 1980.

 

Real mixed bags of winters followed, so it's going to be a real guessing game for us after it happens this year!

 

Yeah, I know. I was trying to keep my post conversational. 

[Deweydog]

If you want actual shots of 1950's Portland watch the first three minutes. They actually made a movie about a Soviet nuclear strike on Portland. Filmed right here in town using local "talent."

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueEl7A7KaHA

I'll trade a nuclear holocaust for a January 1957 redux.

[Weather101]

He should have gone with " I'm just here so I don't get fined" on repeat for 10 minutes. That's the kind of interview a Seahawks fan can get behind.

The Seahawks can do no wrong lol

[Weather101]

The 90 degree stuff may have to wait until October.

That's lovely.

[Geos]

Temp tanking tonight. Already 49° here.

High of 68° for Thursday.

 

Departures so far.

[TT-SEA]

Damage control!

I would have reported that either way.

 

 

What damage? 2007-08 was my response to the something to behold comment. I will say it again... 2007-08.

[Deweydog]

I would have reported that either way.

 

 

What damage? 2007-08 was my response to the something to behold comment. I will say it again... 2007-08.

Probably, but we know how it is.

 

The others did blow it out of proportion.

[TT-SEA]

The new CFS monthly outlook released this morning is warm every month for the PNW from now until next spring... but January is the closest to being something good with cold air across western BC.

 

December is shown to be a nationwide blowtorch.