SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 12Z GFS looks like its heading towards the warm and ridgy scenario for next week.Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night.Congratulations! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night.Seemed like you had been pretty quiet. Congrats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Good I'm having a big BBQ next weekend for all the friends and family. Was supposed to be this past Saturday, but the baby came two weeks late. We didn't get home from the hospital until last night.Is she pregnant again yet? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Is she pregnant again yet?Thanks everyone. This should be the last for awhile. 4th girl so may try for a boy at some point. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 12Z GFS looks like its heading towards the warm and ridgy scenario for next week.Or not.. If there's a ridge next week it likely won't last long. Removal of AAM begins June 7th. I always lean towards deeper western troughing/-PNA when that happens..I've made the mistake of underestimating that response so many times. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Or not.. If there's a ridge next week it likely won't last long. Removal of AAM begins June 7th. I always lean towards deeper western troughing/-PNA when that happens..I've made the mistake of underestimating that response so many times.Where can I track the AAM? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Still in the 50s down here with the marine layer holding on. Wasn't today supposed to hottest of our long weekend, capping off a three day stretch of low-mid 90s? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Still in the 50s down here with the marine layer holding on. Wasn't today supposed to hottest of our long weekend, capping off a three day stretch of low-mid 90s? I am glad the warmth was tempered. 74 here now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Another 12 hours, another wildly different Euro run. Seems like the models are having a hard time figuring out how to handle an unusually strong and southward displaced NE Pacific jet, at least for this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 77 here... only 58 at SEA. But the low clouds have cleared there now so it should warm up. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Where can I track the AAM?I'll link you to the site I use when I get home tonight. I tell ya, AAM almost never fails me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Another 12 hours, another wildly different Euro run. Seems like the models are having a hard time figuring out how to handle an unusually strong and southward displaced NE Pacific jet, at least for this time of year.Yeah, this is even worse than I thought it would be. I mean, you always see model swings when AAM exchanges are running counter to the tropical forcing background, but this getting ridiculous. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 77 here... only 58 at SEA. But the low clouds have cleared there now so it should warm up.Similar here.... 76F but only mid to upper 50s along the ocean in Victoria. It's probably sunny there but just a cool sea breeze. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 My son... pond skimming at Mt Bachelor yesterday. He had never even tried it before and came in 3rd place. And he stuck the landing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Wow. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4B838DC0-4F4A-4BEA-90A1-3AF1A2884A5F_zpswfyeiwjv.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Wow. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4B838DC0-4F4A-4BEA-90A1-3AF1A2884A5F_zpswfyeiwjv.pngThat looks fairly bland to me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 That looks fairly bland to me.I think he is referring more to the very large area of below normal heights than to the direct affects on our region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 That looks fairly bland to me.It's a cool/zonal pattern, verbatim, but what's more impressive is that most of the ensemble members are freezing the crap out of the high latitudes. Asian monsoons are vital in warming the Arctic during the summer, and they're struggling again this year. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 It's a cool/zonal pattern, verbatim, but what's more impressive is that most of the ensemble members are freezing the crap out of the high latitudes. Asian monsoons are vital in warming the Arctic during the summer, and they're struggling again this year. Ahhh. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Sunny and 66 now. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 84 here today with wall-to-wall sunshine... wrappimg up a perfect holiday weekend. Not one cloud has passed over the sun for the last 4 days here. Very nice timing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Very pretty day up at Lost Lake. There are still lots of snow drifts around, but most the camp sites are open. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 84 here today with wall-to-wall sunshine... wrappimg up a perfect holiday weekend. Not one cloud has passed over the sun for the last 4 days here. Very nice timing. 81F here today. Places further inland topped out around 84F on the southern island. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 This 00z GFS run is garbage after 132hrs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 This 00z GFS run is garbage after 120hrs.Link me to a place to track the AAM. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Link me to a place to track the AAM.Here's a free site (GFS based). Scroll down for current projections: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Here's a free site (GFS based). Scroll down for current projections: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html Awesome... thanks! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Awesome... thanks!No problem. I'm working with a few peers on a better AAM website on the UMD database that will include tendency calculations as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Interesting clouds at sunset tonight! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 A cloudless and warm day until very late today but thankfully not too hot as I was expecting. Tomorrow will be interesting though with thunderstorm threat. Still a balmy 68F at nearly 11PM though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Woke up to loud boom of thunder and it's still going. Raining a bit but not too much yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Thunder here too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Looking like a fairly variable pattern going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Nature is taking care of the lawn watering that I had been putting off. Just pouring right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Nature is taking care of the lawn watering that I had been putting off. Just pouring right now. That would be nice... its drizzly and gloomy here but its not adding up to much. If its going to rain then it should really rain. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 ECMWF has joined the fail party, albeit not to the extent of the GFS: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F1299F8E-B3AA-450E-8061-039ECD731C26_zpsrcaeam0d.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Temps only in the mid-upper 50s throughout the metro area this afternoon. Pretty impressive marine layer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 12z GEFS looks like something Jim/Jesse et al drew up. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57185B0C-A6CA-4807-9130-2E77931938B2_zpsrx6kqtca.gif 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 ECMWF has joined the fail party, albeit not to the extent of the GFS: Verbatim, the 12z Euro would put your cool June call in jeopardy with a fairly warm first 1/3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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