May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

For J/A/S? No way, dude.

 

PDX averaged -0.1C during that time period, and OLM/EUG were all within a fraction of a degree of normal.

Look up daily CF6 record at SEA and BLI for JJAS on SEA NWS site and report back to me.

[Jesse]

Memorial Day weekend sucks balls without a chance of thundersnow.

Have anything boring and predictable planned?

[Phil]

Look up daily CF6 record at SEA and BLI for JJAS on SEA NWS site and report back to me.

I already did the math, dude. The official numbers are here.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/findstation

 

Using the four stations we analyzed last year (SEA, PDX, OLM, and EUG), for J/J/A/S, cooler than average days easily outnumber the warmer than average days, and the vast majority of positive departure points occurred within 3 weeks.

[TT-SEA]

I already did the math, dude. The official numbers are here.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/findstation

 

Using the four stations we analyzed last year (SEA, PDX, OLM, and EUG), for J/J/A/S, cooler than average days easily outnumber the warmer than average days, and the vast majority of positive departure points occurred within 3 weeks.

Look at SEA and BLI... specific daily records. Way more positive departure days. Fact.

[Phil]

Loom at SEA and BLI... specific daily records. Way more positive departure days. Fact.

Uh, that's not an accurate spatial representation of the lowland PNW. It makes absolutely zero sense to confine this analysis to those two stations.

[BLI snowman]

73F here currently. Feels a bit hot to be honest. Dam(n), we need some thunderstorms to liven things up though...

 

So-so chance for some warm core action on Monday and Tuesday. Not much forcing but there should be plenty of instability. 

[Front Ranger]

Sometimes, monthly anomalies alone aren't enough to prove a point. We've all been there.

[BLI snowman]

Last summer wasn't anything special you guys.

[Phil]

Last summer wasn't anything special you guys.

Except the math...the math is very, very special. Apparently.

[TT-SEA]

Uh, that's not an accurate spatial representation of the lowland PNW. It makes absolutely zero sense to confine this analysis to those two stations.

OK. I use SEA all the time... and it did well approximating the Seattle area last summer. Our area had more positive departures than negative last summer.

[Deweydog]

Last summer wasn't anything special you guys.

It peaked really early. Or late. Or not at all.

[wx_statman]

Last summer wasn't anything special you guys.

 

I liked the June heat wave. And the August one. 

[wx_statman]

OK. I use SEA all the time... and it did well approximating the Seattle area last summer. Our area had more positive departures than negative last summer.

 

To be fair, stations like OLM and Monroe had plenty of cool days last summer. Monroe ended up averaging -0.5/-1.7/-0.7 for JJA. There's something to be said about Seattle's UHI and the third runway @ SEA affecting things.

 

Different story further north though, at places like Bellingham. Definitely more warm days than cool days last summer up there, along with positive departures for all three months.  

[BLI snowman]

It peaked really early. Or late. Or not at all.

 

Unprecedented!

[Deweydog]

Have anything boring and predictable planned?

Three wake-ups!

[Jesse]

Three wake-ups!

[BLI snowman]

I liked the June heat wave. And the August one. 

 

Pleasantly forgettable.

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, stations like OLM and Monroe had plenty of cool days last summer. Monroe ended up averaging -0.5/-1.7/-0.7 for JJA. There's something to be said about Seattle's UHI and the third runway @ SEA affecting things.

 

Different story further north though, at places like Bellingham. Definitely more warm days than cool days last summer up there, along with positive departures for all three months.  

 

 

WFO SEA was just about the same as SEA... and WFO SEA is in a generally wooded area right on Lake Washington.   

 

For JAS:

 

SEA: +1.1 / +2.6 / -0.1

WFO SEA:  +1.1 / +2.1 / -0.2

 

 

 

SEA was a good approximation of the Seattle area and there were many more positive departures than negative departures in this area last summer.   But even so... the JAS period ended up just a little above normal.  

[Phil]

WFO SEA was just about the same as SEA... and WFO SEA is in a generally wooded area right on Lake Washington.

 

For JAS:

 

SEA: +1.1 / +2.6 / -0.1

WFO SEA: +1.1 / +2.1 / -0.2

 

SEA was a good approximation of the Seattle area and there were many more positive departures than negative departures in this area last summer. But even so... the JAS period ended up just a little above normal.

There are a number of factors that could have biased the numbers a bit warm. Or it could have been a local-ish warm bubble in the Puget Sound area.

 

Either way, the SEA numbers weren't representative of the lowland PNW overall last summer.

[TT-SEA]

There are a number of factors that could have biased the numbers a bit warm. Or it could have been a local-ish warm bubble in the Puget Sound area.

 

Either way, the SEA numbers weren't representative of the lowland PNW overall last summer.

 

No... not representative of the entire lowlands of the PNW.   It was representative of the warm local area around the Puget Sound from Seattle to Bellingham to Vancouver Island.  That area was not even close to 80% of the days below normal... more like 60-70% of the days above normal.

[TT-SEA]

I like the 00Z GFS.   A little more robust with troughing later next week with maybe some convection on Tuesday and some showers around from Wed - Fri and then a ridge builds in for another warm, sunny weekend.  

[BLI snowman]

It was in EUG.  The monthly departures for JJA were 3.2, 0.3, 2.6.  The average high of 87.5º in August was the 3rd hottest on record, behind only 1967 and 2014.

 

Or isn't EUG considered part of the "PNW lowlands?"

 

2013 was also "historically hot" in that area. Historic summer heat down there has been pretty easy to come by this decade. Not the case  just a little further to the north, aside from the truly impressive 2014/2015 combo.

[Phil]

No... not representative of the entire lowlands of the PNW. It was representative of the warm local area around the Puget Sound from Seattle to Bellingham to Vancouver Island. That area was not even close to 80% of the days below normal... more like 60-70% of the days above normal.

That's why I referenced four stations, then aggregated the totals for a more regional representation.

[wx_statman]

Pleasantly forgettable.

 

That August heat wave was kind of a biggie. I'm a fan. 

[TT-SEA]

All of the models turned more troughy for next weekend now.     

[Jesse]

All of the models turned more troughy for next weekend now.

Yeah definitely a change. For a minute they had me doubting Phil's predictions!

[TT-SEA]

Yeah definitely a change. For a minute they had me doubting Phil's predictions!

 

Never doubt Phil.   Timing might be off a little bit... but he will get the big picture right most of the time.

[Jesse]

Never doubt Phil. Timing might be off a little bit... but he will get the big picture right most of the time.

And Flatiron too.

[Jesse]

A nice big cooldown Tuesday and beyond is starting to look likely.

 

Today is also looking like our best shot at 90 this weekend, now.

[Jesse]

That August heat wave was kind of a biggie. I'm a fan.

Didn't that feature one of our latest back to back triple digits?

 

We were camping on the SW side of Mount Adams, near Trout Lake Creek, during most of that event. It cooled off sharply at night, with all of the dry air, but by 9 or 10 in the morning the east wind would surface and it would feel like someone turned on a furnace. Would spike close to 90 early then hang around there all afternoon with a consistent NE breeze. Warm for that elevation (~3,000').

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't even really remember the heatwave last August . The 2013-16 summer period just kind of all blended together.

[Front Ranger]

A nice big cooldown Tuesday and beyond is starting to look likely.

 

Today is also looking like our best shot at 90 this weekend, now.

Euro says Monday will be warmest day.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is warmer than the 00Z run overall.  A little rain on Friday into Saturday morning but ridge builds in quickly next weekend.   Might still just end up a short cool period between ridging.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is warmer than the 00Z run overall.  A little rain on Friday into Saturday morning but ridge builds in quickly next weekend.   Might still just end up a short cool period between ridging.

 

I think you are model riding.

 

There's a lot of confusion in the long range right now. Ensembles are a total mess.

[Front Ranger]

You both have been riding the models pretty hard lately. Mildly entertaining.

[TT-SEA]

I think you are model riding.

 

There's a lot of confusion in the long range right now. Ensembles are a total mess.

 

I have no idea what will happen... I am just thinking out loud.   If Phil expects long-term troughing then that is my general assumption.  

[Jesse]

You both have been riding the models pretty hard lately. Mildly entertaining.

 

Have I?

 

I mean we all know you know what will happen. Don't tell us though. I hate spoilers!

[Front Ranger]

Have I?

 

I mean we all know you know what will happen. Don't tell us though. I hate spoilers!

Yeah, lots of run to run updates. It's cool.

 

This summer will have lots of "nice" periods. Oops!

[Jesse]

Yeah, lots of run to run updates. It's cool.

 

This summer will have lots of "nice" periods. Oops!

 

Bold. Ballsy. Beautiful.

[Jesse]

I checked out of morbid curiousity, and 5 out of my last 50 posts have cited specific model runs, with one ensemble chart posted.

 

Sorry for flooding the forum with my model riding, guys.