May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

84 to 55 at PDX. Impressive crash.

Indeed. Now down to 53. A 31 degree drop in 9 hours.

[Phil]

The warm SSTs have generally focus equatorward in recent months, relative to the polar regions. Will be interesting to see how the trade wind burst/niña forcing may try to redistribute the warmth into the NW-Pacific. Harder to see how the NATL warms, though.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.5.22.2017.gif

[Phil]

Since the AO started trending negative, high Arctic temperatures have dropped below average, in response to the reduced heat advection. If only it were January.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/09B03BC0-F3D3-4767-885E-212EB0A14D90_zpsr7mmvps3.png

[TT-SEA]

All the models and their ensembles extend the jet into the PNW later next week now with some rain and cooler weather.    Some of the runs rebuild a ridge shortly after that as the trough in Bering Sea and western GOA reloads but that looks a little suspicious. 

[Front Ranger]

And a certain somebody I won't name any names was blasting his views about a huge *Crash* coming up something about the dateline and the IO bringing convection. First he said it by now then pushed it to late May and now it may not even happen at all? However I DONT' blame that person I just blame the GFS which is a bad outdated model and other models need to put on ignore when forecasting long range.

 

The GFS needs to go! Garbage Forecasting System.

Phil's got skillz. He's good at recognizing large scale patterns in general and very knowledgeable about forcings.

 

His issues tend to arise when he 1) puts more confidence than is warranted into a forecast, and 2) gets too detailed about a certain time frame or area. That will get any forecaster in trouble.

[TT-SEA]

Some sun already here this morning... was expecting to be socked in.

[Jesse]

Phil's got skillz. He's good at recognizing large scale patterns in general and very knowledgeable about forgings.

 

His issues tend to arise when he 1) puts more confidence than is warranted into a forecast, and 2) gets too detailed about a certain time frame or area. That will get any forecaster in trouble.

There is so much he could learn from you.

[Deweydog]

Phil's got skillz. He's good at recognizing large scale patterns in general and very knowledgeable about forgings.

 

His issues tend to arise when he 1) puts more confidence than is warranted into a forecast, and 2) gets too detailed about a certain time frame or area. That will get any forecaster in trouble.

Straightening Phil with a Flatiron.

 

A new reality premiering this fall on TLC. Check local listings.

[ShawniganLake]

Yesterday's wind knocked out power to more than 200K customers across southern BC. Still close to 30K without power this morning.

[Jesse]

Yesterday's wind knocked out power to more than 200K customers across southern BC. Still close to 30K without power this morning.

That's pretty incredible for a NWrly wind event in late May.

 

What's was your highest gust?

[ShawniganLake]

That's pretty incredible for a NWrly wind event in late May.

 

What's was your highest gust?

The station down the street from me peaked at 42mph.

 

Peak gusts were in the 45-60 range across all of southern BC including the interior. Trial Island topped out at 71mph. YVR hit 55mph.

[ShawniganLake]

Also of note, after being 90F in the interior yesterday, the snowlevel dropped as low as 2500ft overnight.

 

Looked like there was at least snow in the air this morning up at our family's cabin in the Cariboo.

[Jesse]

Also of note, after being 90F in the interior yesterday, the snowlevel dropped as low as 2500ft overnight.

 

Looked like there was at least snow in the air this morning up at our family's cabin in the Cariboo.

Impressive.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is more consolidated with the jet later next week...

 

00Z GEM is not... but its the GEM.  

 

 

 

 

The 12Z runs flipped... GFS is more blocky and less consolidated and GEM is the opposite.

[ShawniganLake]

"Nicest" Memorial Day weekend since 1995? September was warmer than August here that year.

[Front Ranger]

There is so much he could learn from you.

Or you!

 

Did I say anything unreasonable, unfair, or untrue?

 

EDIT: Just saw there was an unfortunate typo in place of "forcings". Fixed.

[TT-SEA]

"Nicest" Memorial Day weekend since 1995? September was warmer than August here that year.

 

Do you even have "Memorial Day" weekend?

[Front Ranger]

Straightening Phil with a Flatiron.

 

Difficult to imagine, but it's possible to recognize BOTH strengths and weaknesses in someone. In a single post, no less.

[Front Ranger]

The 12Z runs flipped... GFS is more blocky and less consolidated and GEM is the opposite.

Keep watching. They may suddenly agree without warning.

[TT-SEA]

Keep watching. They may suddenly agree without warning.

 

I think it might happen.   But did you just give me a warning now??  

[ShawniganLake]

Do you even have "Memorial Day" weekend?

No. We had Victoria Day last weekend. The weather cooperated well.

[Front Ranger]

"Nicest" Memorial Day weekend since 1995? September was warmer than August here that year.

 

Certainly looks like the warmest since 1995. Funny, there have been some pretty significant warm spells right before and after, but none really during that weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Certainly looks like the warmest since 1995. Funny, there have been some pretty significant warm spells right before and after, but none really during that weekend.

 

And the actual days of the holiday weekend move all around so its harder to track.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF just keeps the ridge over us all of next week... it abandons the consolidated jet idea that it showed on the 00Z run.

 

Day 10:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052412/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017052412/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

[Front Ranger]

Assuming neither SEA or PDX picks up any measurable precip today, that will make 8 days in a row for SEA and 7 for PDX. Looks like the streak could easily top 2 weeks, which is fairly unusual this early. Will be interesting to see how far it goes.

[TT-SEA]

Assuming neither SEA or PDX picks up any measurable precip today, that will make 8 days in a row for SEA and 7 for PDX. Looks like the streak could easily top 2 weeks, which is fairly unusual this early. Will be interesting to see how far it goes.

 

This is what I was expecting after record setting persistent rain in the Feb-Apr period.  

[BLI snowman]

1995 had a nice stretch there of 22 consecutive days without measurable rain at PDX from May 13 to June 3.

 

A wet July and the wettest winter in PDX history soon followed.

[Anti Marine Layer]

This is what I was expecting after record setting persistent rain in the Feb-Apr period.  

 

8 days without rain is like drought conditions for Seattle this time of year. They are supposed to be cloudy and showery every day from October 1 to June 30.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF just keeps the ridge over us all of next week... it abandons the consolidated jet idea that it showed on the 00Z run.

 

What link are you using for the Euro these days? Mine stopped working this morning.

[TT-SEA]

1995 had a nice stretch there of 22 consecutive days without measurable rain at PDX from May 13 to June 3.

 

A wet July and the wettest winter in PDX history soon followed.

 

Maybe we can shoot for the wettest winter ever for a 3rd consecutive year!  

 

BTW - 1995 was a really nice summer overall.   

[TT-SEA]

What link are you using for the Euro these days? Mine stopped working this morning.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017052412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

And of course the surface details on WeatherBell.  

[Phil]

Phil's got skillz. He's good at recognizing large scale patterns in general and very knowledgeable about forcings.

 

His issues tend to arise when he 1) puts more confidence than is warranted into a forecast, and 2) gets too detailed about a certain time frame or area. That will get any forecaster in trouble.

I'm not going to bother critiquing you or your weaknesses as a forecaster, however, maybe you should put your money where your mouth is and make a seasonal forecast of your own. Then we can compare when the summer is over.

[Jesse]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017052412&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

And of course the surface details on WeatherBell.

Thank you. I still prefer that main site though. Seeing 850mb temps superimposed on 500mb geopotential heights is nice. For some reason the actual Euro site isn't working, though. Maybe it's just temporary.

[TT-SEA]

8 days without rain is like drought conditions for Seattle this time of year. They are supposed to be cloudy and showery every day from October 1 to June 30.

 

No doubt... drought talk will be heating up on here soon!  

[Phil]

Also of note, after being 90F in the interior yesterday, the snowlevel dropped as low as 2500ft overnight.

 

Looked like there was at least snow in the air this morning up at our family's cabin in the Cariboo.

Fascinating. Would love to experience something like that in May/June.

[TT-SEA]

Thank you. I still prefer that main site though. Seeing 850mb temps superimposed on 500mb geopotential heights is nice. For some reason the actual Euro site isn't working, though. Maybe it's just temporary.

 

I love that 500mb/850mb temp map... its very informative.  

 

Here is the link:

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017050312,192,2017051112&projection=classical_north_america

[Front Ranger]

8 days without rain is like drought conditions for Seattle this time of year. They are supposed to be cloudy and showery every day from October 1 to June 30.

A week in May is not unusual. 2+ weeks before June 15 is.

[Phil]

I think the bias-corrected 12z GEFS finally snapped back to reality in the d11-15 period. Builds heights offshore and runs the trough axis over the west coast, as opposed to the zonal Pacific hose job, which would be bizzare under a regime of upstream AAM removal. Would be more of a cool/dry pattern verbatim, similar to 1951.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/345591AD-0667-44BC-898B-597421BA7E33_zpsluqsj5gi.gif

[Jesse]

I love that 500mb/850mb temp map... its very informative.

 

Here is the link:

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017050312,192,2017051112&projection=classical_north_america

Yup, that is the link I generally use. Still not working for me though. Is it for you?

 

I do appreciate the other link since it illustrates the upstream pattern better, at least.

[Phil]

Yup, that is the link I generally use. Still not working for me though. Is it for you?

 

I do appreciate the other link since it illustrates the upstream pattern better, at least.

It's working for me. What browser are you using?