Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Really hoping Phil's cold and wet June pulls through. We need a break from this endless warmth.I'm not worried at all about a cool June (not 100% sure about "wet", though). Think back to early February with the models' mishandling of the wavetrains ahead of an AAM downcycle, until the very last minute. Classic. The AAM tendency will start dropping during the first week of June, and it will be solidly negative for awhile afterwards. This upstream removal of AAM is a nightmare for modeling over the NPAC (downstream), and this will be the case here as well. At some point, over the next week, the modeling will catch onto the upstream AAM sink action and respond drastically in the NPAC with he building of an Aleutian anticyclone and downstream PNW/western US trough. It might be a single model cycle that catches it, or it might take a few days, but when they catch on it will happen fairly quickly. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I'm not worried at all about a cool June (not 100% sure about "wet", though). Think back to early February with the models' mishandling of the wavetrains ahead of an AAM downcycle, until the very last minute. Classic. The AAM tendency will start dropping during the first week of June, and it will be solidly negative for awhile afterwards. This upstream removal of AAM is a nightmare for modeling over the NPAC (downstream), and this will be the case here as well. At some point, over the next week, the modeling will catch onto the upstream AAM sink action and respond drastically in the NPAC with he building of an Aleutian anticyclone and downstream PNW/western US trough. It might be a single model cycle that catches it, or it might take a few days, but when they catch on it will happen fairly quickly.That is my general feeling as well. Glad we might sneak in a nice Memorial Day weekend at least. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 That would be good too. I am cheering for dry... don't care as much how it gets there. That's just me. You said you are hoping for a wet and cold June. As most people are... I am sure. I am cheering for cool. I don't care as much how it gets there. That's just me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I am cheering for cool. I don't care as much how it gets there. That's just me. Surprising. We have different opinions. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Surprising. We have different opinions.You seem to forget every day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 You seem to forget every day!Not at all. You do. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Not at all. You do.No you are! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 No you are!OK Jesse. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 That is my general feeling as well. Glad we might sneak in a nice Memorial Day weekend at least.Oh, yeah it will be ridgy through Memorial Day weekend. The potential modeling errors I'm talking about follow the reduction of the AAM tendency, sometime during the first week in June, maybe the next weekend after the Memorial Day holiday. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 OK Jesse.Does capitalizing both of the letters in ok mean you are mad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Does capitalizing both of the letters in ok mean you are mad? No. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Oh, yeah it will be ridgy through Memorial Day weekend. The potential modeling errors I'm talking about follow the reduction of the AAM tendency, sometime during the first week in June, maybe the next weekend after the Memorial Day holiday. Yeah... based on our history we will be due again for a cooler and wetter period in June for sure. Its almost never turned warm and dry in mid-May and just stayed that way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 No.GOOD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 GOOD. Just keep it going! Find an example in the last 12 years where I have not capitalized both letters of "OK". I have never typed it "Ok" in conversation in my life unless by accident. Does not look right to me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Oh, yeah it will be ridgy through Memorial Day weekend. The potential modeling errors I'm talking about follow the reduction of the AAM tendency, sometime during the first week in June, maybe the next weekend after the Memorial Day holiday.What are your thoughts on the IOD turning positive. Is this going to have an effect on your thoughts for summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Just keep it going! Find an example in the last 12 years where I have not capitalized both letters of "OK". I have never typed it "Ok" in conversation in my life unless by accident. Does not look right to me.It's a weird phrase. I think it might have something to do with Martin Van Buren's Presidential campaign in the 1830s, originally. No seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 It's a weird phrase. I think it might have something to do with Martin Van Buren's Presidential campaign in the 1830s, originally. No seriously.I think I read that before. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I think I read that before."Old Kinderhook". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 God forbid someone doesn't score it for you. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Some chances of convection mid-late week. Hopefully I can grab a couple storms before the end of May. I'll even accept the very low end types as long as I get some action! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Yeah... based on our history we will be due again for a cooler and wetter period in June for sure. Its almost never turned warm and dry in mid-May and just stayed that way. 2015, 2014, 2009, 2003, 1995, 1992, 1986, 1970, 1958, 1951...others I'm sure I'm forgetting. Mediterranean summer can definitely set in during May and stay until September. Has many times. But obviously all of June won't be like today, no matter what. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 What are your thoughts on the IOD turning positive. Is this going to have an effect on your thoughts for summer.Yeah, it will, because it interferes destructively with the convection over the Indo/120E domain, which favors +ENSO in the long run unless it's overpowered (and the circulation over the next few weeks will try and weaken the +IOD). The recent tendency for a midsummer IOD drop is something that can't be ignored. However, this year, much like in 1993/1983 et al, the +IOD signature has easily coexisted with subsidence over the western IPWP, including the dateline/WPAC, which has greatly reduced the forcing from diabatic heat release within the PNA entrance domain, so we'll have to watch for that since it has been manifesting persistently as an extreme west-based Niña forcing (or extreme east-based Niño forcing) on the extratropical wavetrains (for the most part). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 2015, 2014, 2009, 2003, 1995, 1992, 1986, 1970, 1958, 1951...others I'm sure I'm forgetting. Mediterranean summer can definitely set in during May and stay until September. Has many times. Ahem... there was a mid June gloom in 2009. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Yeah... based on our history we will be due again for a cooler and wetter period in June for sure. Its almost never turned warm and dry in mid-May and just stayed that way.Thing is, these next few weeks are sort of an abomination in the grand scheme of things. The first anticyclone (this week) is kind of rogue in that the AAM maximum was/is timed perfectly to throw it up when the tropical forcing favors the Aleutian ridging. Them, when the Aleutian ridge builds and starts to cycle out the western ridge, the tropics move into an intraseasonal +PNA state with the relatively brief WPAC connection, so a trough/jet-max evolves over the Aleutians which rebuilds the western ridge again. Then the response to the EAMT backcycle occurs in early June while the forcing is leaving the dateline/WPAC which enhances the IO/ISM wave, which will dig a trough into the NW-Pacific and throw the ridge offshore into the GOA, and eventually back towards the Aleutians. So, a very complicated situation to model accurately, and possibly just as tough to analog for. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Ahem... there was a mid June gloom in 2009. It was a warm and dry month overall for the PNW, especially further north. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 2015, 2014, 2009, 2003, 1995, 1992, 1986, 1970, 1958, 1951...others I'm sure I'm forgetting. Mediterranean summer can definitely set in during May and stay until September. Has many times. But obviously all of June won't be like today, no matter what.Again, only two of those years are remotely close to the 2017 system state. That said, I've never really understood your methodology for selecting analogs, so I can't exactly offer judgement until I know your thought process. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Again, only two of those years are remotely close to the system state in 2017. That said, I've never really understood your methodology for selecting analogs. It wasn't a list of analogs. That isn't the point. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 It wasn't a list of analogs. That isn't the point.I'm referring to the years you mentioned a few days ago, many of which you just listed above. It looks like you're favoring a Niño/+PNA style summer pattern, which I think will be almost impossible to obtain until (at earliest) sometime in August . It has never happened without dateline/Pacific forcing. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 2015, 2014, 2009, 2003, 1995, 1992, 1986, 1970, 1958, 1951...others I'm sure I'm forgetting. Mediterranean summer can definitely set in during May and stay until September. Has many times. But obviously all of June won't be like today, no matter what. Right... my point is not about the statistical end result of June but rather that a cooler/wetter period is pretty likely. June of 2016 for example was warmer than normal but there was a 2-week stretch of cooler/wetter weather in the middle of it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 It was a warm and dry month overall for the PNW, especially further north. Yes it was overall. Just that some of the afternoons that are rainy/cooler are almost entirely inevitable at some point in June. Years like 2015 are the huge exception. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Thing is, these next few weeks are sort of an abomination in the grand scheme of things. The first anticyclone (this week) is kind of rogue in that the AAM maximum was/is timed perfectly to throw it up when the tropical forcing favors the Aleutian ridging. Them, when the Aleutian ridge builds and starts to cycle out the western ridge, the tropics move into an intraseasonal +PNA state with the relatively brief WPAC connection, so a trough/jet-max evolves over the Aleutians which rebuilds the western ridge again. Then the response to the EAMT backcycle occurs in early June while the forcing is leaving the dateline/WPAC which enhances the IO/ISM wave, which will dig a trough into the NW-Pacific and throw the ridge offshore into the GOA, and eventually back towards the Aleutians. So, a very complicated situation to model accurately, and possibly just as tough to analog for. Sounds very complicated. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Right... my point is not about the statistical end result of June but rather that a cooler/wetter period is pretty likely. June of 2016 for example was warmer than normal but there was a 2-week stretch of cooler/wetter weather in the middle of it. Well yeah, of course it won't stay sunny/warm non-stop going forward. Was that your point? 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Yes it was overall. Just that some of the afternoons that are rainy/cooler are almost entirely inevitable at some point in June. Years like 2015 are the huge exception. Right, 2015 was definitely an extreme end of the spectrum. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Well yeah, of course it won't stay sunny/warm non-stop going forward. Was that your point? My point is that the models will likely start to trend troughier/cooler/wetter like Phil was predicting. I was just agreeing with him. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Sounds very complicated.Migraine inducing. This is the type of intraseasonal episode that you can never forecast accurately at-range, unless you get lucky for one reason or another. Just a mere 36hr timing differential between the AAM spike and MJO/ISM event would have resulted in deep PNW troughing until May 27th, +/- a few days, and May would have wound up notably cooler than average regionwide. The entire monthly average here was flipped by a perfectly positioned anticyclonic wave event that dropped a bunch of stealthy dominoes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 I'm referring to the years you mentioned a few days ago, many of which you just listed above. It looks like you're favoring a Niño/+PNA style summer pattern, which I think will be almost impossible to obtain until (at earliest) sometime in August . It has never happened without dateline/Pacific forcing. I think this is a more difficult summer to forecast than normal. My number one analog is 1991, followed by 2014. 1986 seems like a decent analog as well. I wouldn't rule out a 1983-type summer, but I think that's less likely. But the list of years above had nothing to do with my analogs, just examples of years where the general warm/dry summer pattern set in during May. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 My point is that the models will likely start to trend troughier/cooler/wetter like Phil was predicting. I was just agreeing with him. From where they are now? Yes, that's a given (in the next week or two). Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 2015, 2014, 2009, 2003, 1995, 1992, 1986, 1970, 1958, 1951...others I'm sure I'm forgetting. Mediterranean summer can definitely set in during May and stay until September. Has many times. But obviously all of June won't be like today, no matter what. Some of those had prolonged cool periods interspersed, though. July 1986 and August 1995 were both very cool (by today's standards). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 Migraine inducing. This is the type of intraseasonal episode that you can never forecast accurately at-range, unless you get lucky for one reason or another. Just a mere 36hr timing differential between the AAM spike and MJO/ISM event would have resulted in deep PNW troughing until May 27th, +/- a few days, and May would have wound up notably cooler than average regionwide. Sometimes, fickle, thread-the-needle intraseasonal events have multi-week consequences. I have noticed at times in the models that little events happening upstream can have a profound effect later on. Or maybe I am imagining it that way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 22, 2017 Report Share Posted May 22, 2017 From where they are now? Yes, that's a given (in the next week or two). Thanks! Sorry for agreeing with Phil. You jumped in to challenge me by default. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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