May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Yikes, it's been a rough week for the GFS. The correlation scores are approaching coin flip territory.

 

#GooFuS

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4D21AABD-831A-4231-B132-E7671944EA5B_zps79lccwhh.jpg

[Phil]

This all stems from the GFS's inability to properly simulate tropical convection, due to the fact it's an old school spectral model with a very outdated cumulus parameterization(s).

[Deweydog]

This all stems from the GFS's inability to properly simulate tropical convection, due to the fact it's an old school spectral model with a very outdated cumulus parameterization(s).

I got this word for word in a fortune cookie at dinner this evening.

[Front Ranger]

Yikes, it's been a rough week for the GFS. The correlation scores are approaching coin flip territory.

 

#GooFuS

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4D21AABD-831A-4231-B132-E7671944EA5B_zps79lccwhh.jpg

 

Yeah, it's funny, most the time the GFS isn't that much worse than the Euro, but every once in awhile it falls WAY behind.

[Phil]

Yeah, it's funny, most the time the GFS isn't that much worse than the Euro, but every once in awhile it falls WAY behind.

Yeah, and it always seems to happen during MJO waves or the inception/termination of the Asian summer monsoons.

 

Coincidence, I think not. This model just struggles with tropical convection, plain and simple. It seems to perform much better during strong ENSO periods, which are often devoid of MJO activity due to dominance of the low frequency background boundary conditions.

[Phil]

I got this word for word in a fortune cookie at dinner this evening.

This makes you very important. Somehow.

[TT-SEA]

82/50 here... gorgeous day.

 

It was 83 on Lake Sammamish this afternoon... kids actually went swimming which I thought was a little crazy.    The lake was very busy and there was a wait to launch which is unusual.  

 

We figured out a way to keep my daughter safe since she insisted on being in the water.  

 

[Kayla]

We're finally starting to see some model agreement w/ regards to the timing of the MJO bifurcation out of the EHEM. If this holds true, June will be a -PNA/+AO month, with a trough axis west of the continental divide an Aleutian/GOA anticyclone.

 

This supports the low-frequency-derived pattern analogs favoring a cooler than average June in the PNW and much of the Intermountain West as well.

 

Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it.

 

Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it.

 

Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right.

 

 

Snow does not feel right in April and May either.   17 inches in June is just crazy.

[Phil]

Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it.

 

Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right.

Yeah, a summer solstice snowstorm would feel like the apocalypse to me, given what I'm used to at that point. Though, it wasn't too long ago that the majority of snowfall in the US occurred during the summer.

[wx_statman]

Looks like we'll even get a taste of the possible June trough axis this upcoming week. If the trough axis does end up around here it will be interesting to see how much forcing comes along with it.

 

Cool'ish and moisture is fine, I just hope another June 13th 2001 isn't in the cards when 17" accumulated here in downtown. I love snow but June snow just isn't right.

 

Western MT saw heavy June snowfalls in both 2001 and 2008...in both cases, following major heat waves in May here in the PNW. 

[TT-SEA]

06z GFS is the first run of any model to knock down the ridge already on Memorial Day.   The ECMWF and EPS showed nothing even close to that solution... but I assume the 06Z GFS will be the trail blazer on this one.  

[Jesse]

I got this word for word in a fortune cookie at dinner this evening.

 

Panda express? You fell off the wagon!

[Kayla]

Snow does not feel right in April and May either.   17 inches in June is just crazy.

 

The April snow wasn't too bad but I agree about May. Definitely easy to lose track that it's almost Memorial Day when it's still snowing.

[Kayla]

Western MT saw heavy June snowfalls in both 2001 and 2008...in both cases, following major heat waves in May here in the PNW. 

 

Looks like 2008 was the last time significant accumulating snowfall in June occurred in this area. Interesting point about the May heat in the PNW and Western MT snowfall correlation.

[Deweydog]

Panda express? You fell off the wagon!

Taste of China. Probably even worse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like 2008 was the last time significant accumulating snowfall in June occurred in this area. Interesting point about the May heat in the PNW and Western MT snowfall correlation.

 

That June 2008 trough was cold. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GFS keeps us very warm for the next 17 days with the exception of Wednesday.  

[Deweydog]

Panda express? You fell off the wagon!

Taste of China. Probably even worse.

[Jesse]

Taste of China. Probably even worse.

The restaurant so nice you said it twice!

[Deweydog]

The restaurant so nice you said it twice!

I have no idea why that happened. Fred...

[James Jones]

12z GFS bringing back memories of 2014-2016. 

[Jesse]

12z GFS bringing back memories of 2014-2016.

It's been a long, agonizing six months since our last record-courting torchy period.

[James Jones]

It's been a long, agonizing six months since our last record-courting torchy period.

 

We really deserve it. I don't know how anybody got through this spring without crippling depression.

[Jesse]

We really deserve it. I don't know how anybody got through this spring without crippling depression.

If you managed to, there is clearly something deeply wrong with you. Might want to seek therapy if the suicidal thoughts were occurring on a less than weekly basis.

[TT-SEA]

It's been a long, agonizing six months since our last record-courting torchy period.

 

Sarcastic Jesse is back!   Must be turning nice.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is perfection through day 10 and still no signs of a big crash at 240 hours.   Good enough for me right now.  

[Jesse]

Sarcastic Jesse is back! Must be turning nice.

Sarcastic Jesse never left. Have we met?

[TT-SEA]

Sarcastic Jesse never left. Have we met?

[Jesse]

Really hoping Phil's cold and wet June pulls through. We need a break from this endless warmth.

[Front Ranger]

If you managed to, there is clearly something deeply wrong with you. Might want to seek therapy if the suicidal thoughts were occurring on a less than weekly basis.

I didn't see a single smile when I was there last month. And I was there for a wedding.

[Jesse]

At least the 12z Euro came in a little cooler overall than the 00z. Gotta focus on the small things.

[James Jones]

12Z ECMWF is perfection through day 10 and still no signs of a big crash at 240 hours.   Good enough for me right now.  

 

Just think though, we'll have a trough at some point in June. That means you can't enjoy any of the next 10 days because in the back of your mind, you'll know that the nice weather won't last forever. 

[TT-SEA]

At least the 12z Euro came in a little cooler overall than the 00z. Gotta focus on the small things.

Tragic to have a dry period after 3.5 months of almost daily rain and the second record breaking wet winter in row.

 

We need a wet and cold month to offset this... makes sense.

[Front Ranger]

Poor Mother Nature. Can't make one person happy without upsetting someone else.

[Jesse]

Tragic to have a dry period after 3.5 months of almost daily rain and the second record breaking wet winter in row.

 

We need a wet and cold month to offset this... makes sense.

Cooler and dry is great too.

[Jesse]

PDX already up to 78 as of noon. First 90 of the year there looking possible.

[Front Ranger]

Would be semi-interesting to have a contest guessing the number of 90+ days this summer at PDX, and 85+ for SEA.

[Deweydog]

Would be semi-interesting to have a contest guessing the number of 90+ days this summer at PDX, and 85+ for SEA.

God forbid someone doesn't score it for you.

[TT-SEA]

Cooler and dry is great too.

That would be good too. I am cheering for dry... don't care as much how it gets there. That's just me.

 

You said you are hoping for a wet and cold June. As most people are... I am sure.