May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous morning... a more robust shortwave last night scoured out the low clouds more effectively than earlier runs showed. Totally sunny and already 58 here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gorgeous morning... a more robust shortwave last night scoured out the low clouds more effectively than earlier runs showed. Totally sunny and already 58 here.

 

Meanwhile down here after an AMAZING day yesterday we are still stuck in the low clouds after an early season marine push. 

[TT-SEA]

The earlier and stronger crash might be the best thing for Memorial Day weekend which looks absolutely spectacular now on all the models.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking likely we see our second 70F+ day of the year here this afternoon.

[Timmy Supercell]

No storms in the long range for my area, for now. I hope this isn't a quiet Spring. Last year it was an overly active Spring, and a very dead Summer for convection (had 1 in August... none in July). It must be making up for my 3 years of continuous storms from 2013-2015 and April 2016. I have yet to record my first for the year.

[ShawniganLake]

No storms in the long range for my area, for now. I hope this isn't a quiet Spring. Last year it was an overly active Spring, and a very dead Summer for convection (had 1 in August... none in July). It must be making up for my 3 years of continuous storms from 2013-2015 and April 2016. I have yet to record my first for the year.

Meteorological spring is pretty much over, so yes, it's going to be a quiet spring.

[TT-SEA]

I would say the 12Z ECMWF is perfect looking at the surface details... the only really cool days are Wednesday and Thursday with some showers around and highs in the low 60s.    Then its back into the low to mid 70s by Friday already and then 70s and low 80s for the entire holiday weekend.

[Front Ranger]

I would say the 12Z ECMWF is perfect looking at the surface details... the only really cool days are Wednesday and Thursday with some showers around and highs in the low 60s. Then its back into the low to mid 70s by Friday already and then 70s and low 80s for the entire holiday weekend.

Warm May.

[Phil]

Warm May.

I remember when you were chastising me over the warm-up idea..timing semantics aside.

[Phil]

Huge test for the models over the next few weeks. Both the GEFS and GEPS insist on the MJO making a complete orbit across the Pacific/WHEM, compromising the new ISM anomaly as the wave exits the EHEM to open June.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2017052012&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

If this is correct, then instead of a ridge retrogression, a jet extension/ULL will eventually compromise the ridge as the forcing moves into the EPAC/ATL. This is a more prolonged process compared to a retrogression, and will require approximately 10 days to *fully* complete after the EAMT tendency reverses during the Memorial Day weekend.

 

If this is incorrect, and the modeling is conflating the two waves as they're overlapping in the IO (happens frequently), then the MJO will likely degrade into a CCKW and accelerate across the Pacific/WHEM with the dominant wave being the IO/EHEM one, which would likely favor a retrogression scenario rather than a jet extension (initially).

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous Saturday... and have to water the new plants even with all the rain lately.  

 

[Front Ranger]

I remember when you were chastising me over the warm-up idea..timing semantics aside.

 

Nah, I was always on the "nice/warm" May bandwagon.

[Phil]

Nah, I was always on the "nice/warm" May bandwagon.

Yeah, you sure were.

[Jesse]

I just wanted to let everyone know I always knew January 2017 would be a cold one regionally.

[Phil]

I just wanted to let everyone know I always knew January 2017 would be a cold one regionally.

#supersleuth

[Jesse]

#supersleuth

I'm just that good. My secret is that I stick to the facts, unlike SOME people.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, you sure were.

 

I'm not even trying to call you out. Why are you trying to call me out? 

 

Go look at my posts in the April thread if you don't believe me. It's not a big deal...WE CAN BOTH BE RIGHT (or wrong). But I was definitely saying back in April that May would be much nicer and warmer.

[Front Ranger]

I just wanted to let everyone know I always knew January 2017 would be a cold one regionally.

 

Tim knew before you. Phil knew before Tim. I knew before Phil. Mark Nelsen knew before you even knew him.

[Phil]

I'm not even trying to call you out. Why are you trying to call me out?

 

Go look at my posts in the April thread if you don't believe me. It's not a big deal...WE CAN BOTH BE RIGHT (or wrong).

Easy, I'm just messing with you.

 

If I was actually sore about it, I'd be requoting your posts.

[Front Ranger]

The crash from Tue to Wed on the 12z Euro is about as epic as you'll see this time of year. 

[Phil]

I'm just that good. My secret is that I stick to the facts, unlike SOME people.

Haha. Oh s**t.

[TT-SEA]

The crash from Tue to Wed on the 12z Euro is about as epic as you'll see this time of year.

Its pretty crazy... but that strength definitely plays in our favor later. Warm air comes in from the north on Friday and stays for the entire weekend.

[Jesse]

Its pretty crazy... but that strength definitely plays in our favor later. Warm air comes in from the north on Friday and stays for the entire weekend.

 

Considering how much the models have been changing in the short-mid range, I wouldn't bank on the 6-10 day period remaining untouched now.

 

The ensemble spread illustrates that pretty well.

[Phil]

Kind of easy to see where the 12z EPS mean is trending in the extended range. At least for now.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/072EB25A-D462-4306-A931-A093FF152AEE_zps7fiv5ml1.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/82BD3C98-17D6-4FB4-88B1-9FD36A9BE154_zpsev37dmxq.png

 

FWIW, the ECMWF suite has been bullish on the retrogression for awhile now, in the face of most other guidance.

[TT-SEA]

Considering how much the models have been changing in the short-mid range, I wouldn't bank on the 6-10 day period remaining untouched now.

 

The ensemble spread illustrates that pretty well.

No doubt. Watching for another clipper that could dig.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice dear fence Tim. Looks really nice too. I don't have that many deer issues here as they generally stay on the land below my house and my garden is on the hill above the house. I think they don't come up here because of all my dogs. I still put up a temporary deer fence, but they don't get the other forbs near the house. I want to do one like yours now.

[TT-SEA]

Nice dear fence Tim. Looks really nice too. I don't have that many deer issues here as they generally stay on the land below my house and my garden is on the hill above the house. I think they don't come up here because of all my dogs. I still put up a temporary deer fence, but they don't get the other forbs near the house. I want to do one like yours now.

 

8 foot high fence.... 1,000 square foot garden.    And its still destroyed by moles!   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 foot high fence.... 1,000 square foot garden. And its still destroyed by moles!

My dogs dig up most of the moles believe it or not lol

[TT-SEA]

My dogs dig up most of the moles believe it or not lol

 

Wish my dog was that smart.  

[TT-SEA]

Trough crashes through on Wednesday on the 00Z GFS as the 12Z run showed... but its moving even faster.   Making a beeline for the Midwest by Thursday.   

 

850mb temps have rebounded quickly by Thursday afternoon.

 

Waiting to see what that means for the holiday weekend.   

[TT-SEA]

All the models are rotating in warm air from the north later in the week and into the weekend on the backside of the trough.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice dear fence Tim. Looks really nice too. I don't have that many deer issues here as they generally stay on the land below my house and my garden is on the hill above the house. I think they don't come up here because of all my dogs. I still put up a temporary deer fence, but they don't get the other forbs near the house. I want to do one like yours now.

 

The part of town here where most deer are found are (believe it or not) on top of the hill by North 6th Street. lol I frequently see drivers stopping by to take pictures, and there must be a reason why. They made this section of the area their home. We should have taken action when we had more money but too late now.

[TT-SEA]

Already 63 at 8 am. Good day to be on the water.

 

Loved the 00Z ECMWF and the EPS... holiday weekend still looking good.

[Timmy]

Already 63 at 8 am. Good day to be on the water.

 

Loved the 00Z ECMWF and the EPS... holiday weekend still looking good.

Headed out on the maiden voyage today!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The part of town here where most deer are found are (believe it or not) on top of the hill by North 6th Street. lol I frequently see drivers stopping by to take pictures, and there must be a reason why. They made this section of the area their home. We should have taken action when we had more money but too late now.

Yeah when my brother lived down there he lived in that area. Went for a walk in the evening and saw so many deer when I went down to visit.

[TT-SEA]

WRF now shows its mostly sunny already by late morning even on Wednesday after the crash.

[Front Ranger]

Top 10 warm May for SEA (and probably other places) definitely on the table if the latest Euro verifies.

[Phil]

We're finally starting to see some model agreement w/ regards to the timing of the MJO bifurcation out of the EHEM. If this holds true, June will be a -PNA/+AO month, with a trough axis west of the continental divide an Aleutian/GOA anticyclone.

 

This supports the low-frequency-derived pattern analogs favoring a cooler than average June in the PNW and much of the Intermountain West as well.

[Jesse]

Pretty nice day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

77/45 here.