May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Last summer was not hot at all. Just slightly above average locally and cooler than normal for the region.

Last J/A/S was actually colder than 2011 @ 850mb. For whatever reason it didn't efficiently translate to the surface.

[seattleweatherguy]

Last summer was not hot at all. Just slightly above average locally and cooler than normal for the region.

I guess my perception is wrong due to the fact we went through some hot streches that evened out with cool ones. Didn't we get in the 90s a few days?

[Front Ranger]

Last summer was not hot at all.   Just slightly above average locally and cooler than normal for the region.  

 

JJA was not cooler than normal for the region overall. More above normal areas, actually.

 

 

I can't make the same map for June-September, but if I could it would be right around average overall.

[Phil]

JJA was not cooler than normal for the region overall. More above normal areas, actually.

 

JJA16TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

I can't make the same map for June-September, but if I could it would be right around average overall.

J/A/S was mostly normal west of the cascades, but cooler than average across the majority of the PNW:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B8409A10-5D1C-4335-9559-0633957895E6_zpswpeamhrn.png

[TT-SEA]

JJA was not cooler than normal for the region overall. More above normal areas, actually.

 

JJA16TDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

I can't make the same map for June-September, but if I could it would be right around average overall.

 

Didn't we debate all last summer?  I thought I was proven wrong and warmth was just a local phenomenon around the Puget Sound area.

 

It was not a hot summer for sure.   

[Phil]

Didn't we debate all last summer? I thought I was proven wrong and warmth was just a local phenomenon around the Puget Sound area.

 

It was not a hot summer for sure.

I think our battles were over J/A/S. I was forecasting a troughy second half of summer and thought it would pull the late summer trimonthly average negative, which only partially worked out thanks to that mysterious "mild bubble" over Puget Sound.

[ShawniganLake]

Last J/A/S was actually colder than 2011 @ 850mb. For whatever reason it didn't efficiently translate to the surface.

The NE Pacific was much colder in 2011.

[Phil]

The NE Pacific was much colder in 2011.

Then why didn't it affect NorCal? Even PDX finished slightly cooler than average for J/A/S. I'm not a microclimate person, so I have no clue here.

[Front Ranger]

Regardless, June is a part of summer, and if you go June-September, it was normal to slightly above. Meteorological summer was warmer than normal.

 

Not a cool summer, that's for sure.

[ShawniganLake]

Then why didn't it affect NorCal? Even PDX finished slightly cooler than average for J/A/S. I'm not a microclimate person, so I have no clue here.

Did it finish cooler than 2011 though.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF on board as well with jet extension into PNW later next week.   

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF on board as well with jet extension into PNW later next week.   

 

It also pushes back the hottest day of the week to Tuesday. With a big marine push on Wednesday.

[Phil]

The bias corrected 12z GEFS took a big step in the cooler direction during the d11-15 period, and also jumped towards an extended jet episode after Memorial Day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last summer was pretty warm, but not blistering like the two previous summers. 2013 was a warm summer too. We re due for a cooler one.

[TT-SEA]

Even with the aggressive troughiness on the 12Z ECMWF... the surface detail maps only show a little light rain on Thursday into Friday morning and then partly cloudy and in the low 70s the following weekend.    

[Front Ranger]

Even with the aggressive troughiness on the 12Z ECMWF... the surface detail maps only show a little light rain on Thursday into Friday morning and then partly cloudy and in the low 70s the following weekend.

I wouldn't even call it aggressive troughiness. More just seasonable marine intrusion.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn't even call it aggressive troughiness. More just seasonable marine intrusion.

 

I guess I meant much more aggressive than the last couple runs.  Not really aggressive compared to the event early last week. 

[Jesse]

Last summer was pretty warm, but not blistering like the two previous summers. 2013 was a warm summer too. We re due for a cooler one.

I don't know. I just asked my sunglasses, cold beer and flips flops and they all agree we are due for another scorcher!!!

[TT-SEA]

I don't know. I just asked my sunglasses, cold beer and flips flops and they all agree we are due for another scorcher!!!

 

Sounds great.

[Jesse]

Sounds great.

I would ask my jet skis too but I don't have any.

[TT-SEA]

I would ask my jet skis too but I don't have any.

 

My boat agreed with you.  

[Jesse]

My boat agreed with you.

Boats can't think or talk, silly!

[Jesse]

Looks like there's some spotty convection trying to drift off the Cascades and move toward the Vancouver area from the NE.

[Deweydog]

Looks like there's some spotty convection trying to drift off the Cascades and move toward the Vancouver area from the NE.

We had one low roller here a few minutes ago. Definitely the kind of 5-25 thunder that preceded all of our hottest and most upsetting summers.

[Jesse]

We had one low roller here a few minutes ago. Definitely the kind of 5-25 thunder that preceded all of our hottest and most upsetting summers.

****!

 

Not a good sign.

[wx_statman]

Last J/A/S was actually colder than 2011 @ 850mb. For whatever reason it didn't efficiently translate to the surface.

 

It's a little misleading to use JAS here, as 2011 turned hot after 8/15. September was one of the warmest on record regionally. 

 

That summer is remembered for being regionally cool prior to mid-August, so referencing JJA would have been more relevant here. 

[Deweydog]

****!

 

Not a good sign.

I'm creating a litany of analog maps to show we're completely screwed.

[Phil]

It's a little misleading to use JAS here, as 2011 turned hot after 8/15. September was one of the warmest on record regionally.

 

That summer is remembered for being regionally cool prior to mid-August, so referencing JJA would have been more relevant here.

Yeah, I was just comparing them. JAS 2011 was still warmer at 850mb compared to JAS 2016, yet 2016 finished warmer at the surface, for whatever reason.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, I was just comparing them. JAS 2011 was still warmer at 850mb compared to JAS 2016, yet 2016 finished warmer at the surface, for whatever reason.

 

Yeah, I don't know. It might have been a few patterns that drove the discrepancy. For example, Sep. 2011 had a ridiculously long-lasting heat ridge, but PDX stayed between 87-93 the entire time. There were forecasts for 98-100 that never materialized. On the flip side, Aug. 2016 was able to maximize downslope flow on a few days to really squeeze out high surface readings. A few patterns like that can definitely swing the anomalies on the monthly scale. 

[IbrChris]

Three days 90+ over the long weekend seems pretty bullish. Especially considering a relatively small clout of ensemble members are advertising such a possibility, at least in the last few runs. But who knows, I guess.

You mean the ensemble mean? Both suggestive of 90-93 (~20c H8 temps). Might end up 2 days...we'll see.

[Jesse]

You mean the ensemble mean? Both suggestive of 90-93 (~20c H8 temps). Might end up 2 days...we'll see.

It was a smaller group showing that spike up toward +20c the early part of next week. That has mostly faded the last few runs, though.

 

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF and its control run and the EPS took a turn for drier and warmer later next week.

 

Not that it matters... but I would not mind a day or two of rain by that point.   00Z ECMWF surface maps show a little rain still on Thursday but its not much and it disappears quickly.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS was sure a warm run.  

[Jesse]

12Z GFS was sure a warm run.

Not a lot of ensemble support, though.

[TT-SEA]

Not a lot of ensemble support, though.

 

Definitely not in the long range.  

[Jesse]

Definitely not in the long range.

Yeah. The warm weather this weekend isn't going anywhere. Although the idea of high end warmth on Sunday/Monday has been toned down a little.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah. The warm weather this weekend isn't going anywhere. Although the idea of high end warmth on Sunday/Monday has been toned down a little.

 

Me no likey high end warmth.   

 

Regular warmth is just fine by me.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is following the very warm GFS in the long range.

[Timmy Supercell]

Didn't we debate all last summer?  I thought I was proven wrong and warmth was just a local phenomenon around the Puget Sound area.

 

It was not a hot summer for sure.   

 

J/A/S Mean in K-Falls is only +0.9. Pretty much normal. July by itself was actually -1.1. The only 2 warm months here last year were April and November.

 

Edit: My bad, -0.4 was J/A/S here. J/J/A period was +0.9. So it was actually cooler than I thought.

[Jesse]

EPS looks starkly different from the operational 12Z days 7-10.