Current La Niña is Over

[Andie]

Many will celebrate. Especially farmers and ranchers.  This has been a long unpleasant road.   
No one want flooding and such but drought affects every corner of our lives.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[AquariusRadar]

One of the wettest periods of recent California weather has occurred during the waning days of the La Nina just ended. Or has the decision to declare La Nina at end really driven by the robust wet weather? Since early fall, California rainfall fell in defiance of the expected La Nina drought continuation. We can see that the Pacific high has abated and moved way south allowing storm tracks and ARs to move in a unrestricted west to east passage over California.The Pacific wet has moved south from British Columbia/Alaska panhandle.  In my opinion, the Pacific coast rainfall has not increased; it simply left the Northern Pacific coast for the Southern coast. Is the new and very active solar cycle 25 the cause? 

[Andie]

The shift would certainly be creating a great deal of hardship.  Southern Calif simply is not up to the deluge.  Mudslide season is next.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 3/14/2023 at 7:06 AM, AquariusRadar said:

Or has the decision to declare La Nina at end really driven by the robust wet weather? Since early fall, California rainfall fell in defiance of the expected La Nina drought continuation.

ENSO (aka El Niño vs. La Niña) is all about temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Rainfall in California is correlated to it, but the correlation is not 100%, and is not used to determine in what phase of the oscillation we are in. (There have also been El Niños that have been dry for California.)

[AquariusRadar]

Global warming is very slowly melting the Antarctic ice cap. Opinion: The fresh melt waters of the Antarctic make for an increasingly cold Southern ocean. These cold surface waters join the Humboldt current as it moves up the South American coast to the equator and out into the central Pacific creating an almost permanent La Nina condition. La Nina will become dominate and El Nino increasingly rare. That means more drought for many areas of the world.