Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Winter Storm watches are up but not for the metro. Tight gradient for snow totals. Looks like a lot of nowcasting with this one. CMC/Euro heading south. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Euro still creeping SE. 1-95 north and west. NYC in the cross hairs. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 All models track surface low from Louisiana to Norfolk Va. Great track. 12Z NAM is doing what it does inside 24hrs. Cancelled snow in Eastern Kansas. Don't believe it. CMC still the jackpot. Looks like a real hair puller. Nowcasting Storm for sure.. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 CMC doubled down. We are in the game... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 18Z NAM digging south... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2019 Sorry, when i get druk, whisky lullaby, Allison Krause... 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 ^^ Nothing wrong with s**t posting on a weather forum when fire meets ice. As for this storm..have to say I’m bearish for my particular location..you N/W folks might do very well, but again, this area sucks when we’re waiting for the low level cold to drain in. And dewpoints/temps are both extremely elevated right now, by pre-snowstorm standards. I’d love to be proven wrong. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 12Z ECMWF is slightly lighter on totals compared to 00Z but still looks good. I like the ensemble agreement too for NYC – at least 6"! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 NWS clears the metro, let's get it on... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Sloooow advection here with light NW flow. Down to 43/35. Terrible still..wetbulbs in the upper 30s. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Warm start. Snow begins in Virginia. Temp 37.6F Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 2S- all snow... Temp went from 38 to 34 in 15 minutes. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 ^^ Nothing wrong with s**t posting on a weather forum when fire meets ice.As for this storm..have to say I’m bearish for my particular location..you N/W folks might do very well, but again, this area sucks when we’re waiting for the low level cold to drain in. And dewpoints/temps are both extremely elevated right now, by pre-snowstorm standards.I’d love to be proven wrong. this winter would not be as bad to deal with but the fact it was so hype up by so many of the pro mets and so much let down from the models is what makes this winter suck so badly at least for north and west this event looks to be varfing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 1/2S we are getting hammered. Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Ground is covered, trees snow capped. 1/2SF, temp 32.8F Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Snowing lightly in downtown Manhattan. Still seems to be upper 30s with pretty low dewpoints. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Rain. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Snowing lightly in downtown Manhattan. Still seems to be upper 30s with pretty low dewpoints.Some heavier frontogenic echoes developing down here tight now. It’s rain for us but these should propagate up to NYC later tonight and increase your precip rates from their presently-anemic levels. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 It’s sticking on all surfaces in Brooklyn. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Some heavier frontogenic echoes developing down here tight now. It’s rain for us but these should propagate up to NYC later tonight and increase your precip rates from their presently-anemic levels. Mike Masco was going with 9 inchs of snow in Baltimore last night that just bad forecasting period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Flipped to snow at the end. No accumulation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Flipped to snow at the end.No accumulation.Yea a bust for sure. 1 1/2" on front side, sleet ZR- then R in the middle. Got up last night it was all gone. This morning about an inch on the ground. 22 people lost their life in Alabama last night. Sucked up as they prepared for dinner.... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antipex Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Massive bust in Lower Manhattan. Not much snow here. NWS has a report of 3.8” in Central Park so I’ll see what it’s like in midtown later this morning. It’s nice to know busts aren’t just limited to the PNW 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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