April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. Even in a summer that’s statistically considered wetter and cooler than normal it’s still going to be very dry here overall.

 

 

There are many summers in our history that were fairly wet and cool overall... and not "hot and dry" in any way.

 

You just started tracking weather within the last 5 years so that is your frame of reference.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There are many summers in our history that were fairly wet and cool overall... and not "hot and dry" in any way.

 

You just started tracking weather within the last 5 years so that is your frame of reference.  

 

I am aware of about 3 such summers in the past 50 years.

[TT-SEA]

I am aware of about 3 such summers in the past 50 years.

 

 

A little different up here.   

 

As recent as 2011... it was basically wet and cold until the end of July.    That is 2/3rds of meteorological summer.    And August barely cracked 80.   

[TacomaWaWx]

A little different up here.

 

As recent as 2011... it was basically wet and cold until the end of July. That is 2/3rds of meteorological summer. And August barely cracked 80.

I actually remember this summer. You do have a point it does happen. This happening however is about as rare as it snowing 2’ in Tacoma for the winter. Like a 1 and 10 chance of a summer ending up like that one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little different up here.   

 

As recent as 2011... it was basically wet and cold until the end of July.    That is 2/3rds of meteorological summer.    And August barely cracked 80.   

 

Was cool down here. Was not really wet though.

[TT-SEA]

I have studied many winters and summers of PNW weather before I was born as well. Overall, we’re both trying to prove a point that doesn’t really matter anyways, we don’t know or control the weather none of us do. I’m just saying, on average out of the past 100 summers the average is mid 70s and sunshine because that’s how it usually is, it’s a dry warm climate. It may end up being cooler and wetter statistically, but rain 5 days the whole winter and be dry the other 150.

 

 

In our recorded history... there are many summers that had a generally dry period for only 6-8 weeks.    There are many summers that were quite wet and cool well into June and again by late August and September.      

 

There is no reason to fear our normal summer weather... it is often just a relatively short break of more consistent sunshine and pleasant temps.   

 

I could produce a long list of years since 1950 like that.   

[TacomaWaWx]

In our recorded history... there are many summers that had a generally dry period for only 6-8 weeks. There are many summers that were quite wet and cool well into June and again by late August and September.

 

There is no reason to fear our normal summer weather... it is often just a relatively short break of more consistent sunshine and pleasant temps.

 

I could produce a long list of years since 1950 like that.

I don’t fear summer weather summer is awesome. I fear not having enough rain or snowpack in the mountains for summer that’s what I truly fear.

Plus like I said before, summers like that I don’t typically happen, especially recently as summers are getting hotter and longer. It’s a 1 and 10 or 15 chance thing, but I will admit you could be right and it could end up the way your saying, or I could end up being right and it being hot and dry, it’s April too early to tell. However recent history of summers continually getting warmer with hotter days I am leaning towards it being hotter and drier.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t fear summer weather summer is awesome. I fear not having enough rain or snowpack in the mountains for summer that’s what I truly fear.

 

Our summers are usually not long enough up here for that to be an issue.     We don't live in Southern California or Texas.    

 

We can usually count on begging for summer weather in June when its still raining and cool... and then regular rain returning again by late August or September.    

 

Seems sort of silly to worry about the 8 weeks of generally dry weather in between... in a 52-week year that mostly features regular rain.

 

The last 2 years have been extreme exceptions in terms of summer weather and definitely not the rule.   And there is no reason to think it won't change again soon.

[Omegaraptor]

Our summers are usually not long enough up here for that to be an issue. We don't live in Southern California or Texas.

 

We can usually count on begging for summer weather in June when its still raining and cool... and then regular rain returning again by late August or September.

 

Seems sort of silly to worry about the 8 weeks of generally dry weather in between... in a 52-week year that mostly features regular rain.

Except down in Portland it was dry clear from mid-April to mid-September with an almost complete dry May last year. When such years are possible it is absolutely reasonable to be concerned about drought and fires. The PNW is not the mecca of endless precipitation that most people believe it is. We are capable of droughts and water shortages just like everywhere else.

 

June averages 74°F highs down here as well, so it’s not a cool month unless you’re from Florida. Sure we got a couple of rainy and cool days last June... but we also got four 90°F or higher days.

[TT-SEA]

The average high in Seattle is at or above 75 degrees for just a few weeks of the year... from July 8th - August 22nd.    

 

That is just 45 days.    And 75 degrees is not exactly hot summer weather anyways.     

 

Seattle also averages 9 days with rain in June and 9 days in September.  

[TT-SEA]

June averages 74°F highs down here as well, so it’s not a cool month unless you’re from Florida. Sure we got a couple of rainy and cool days last June... but we also got four 90°F or higher days.

 

 

74 degrees in June is cool to most of the country... not just Florida.   

 

And the average high in Seattle in June is 69 degrees.    

 

Seattle averages 2.8 days at or above 90 degrees each year.    Very hot summer climate up here.   <_>

[Jesse]

Haha, Tim this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Haha, Tim this morning.

All points you have made about our normal summer weather.

[Jesse]

All points you have made about our normal summer weather.

It’s absolutely intolerable and change should be welcomed with open arms.

[TT-SEA]

It’s absolutely intolerable and change should be welcomed with open arms.

 

 

Its just silly to say that we normally have hot summers up here with water shortages and smoke.    History says otherwise.   

 

We have a fairly cool summer climate with about an 8-week period when rain is less likely than the rest of the year.

[TacomaWaWx]

Its just silly to say that we normally have hot summers up here with water shortages and smoke. History says otherwise.

 

We have a fairly cool summer climate with about an 8-week period when rain is less likely than the rest of the year.

Yeah history says that we have an 8 week summer but things have been getting warmer recently. Same as you I hope that it’s not the new normal, I want a cooler wetter summer.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah history says that we have an 8 week summer but things have been getting warmer recently. Same as you I hope that it’s not the new normal, I want a cooler wetter summer.

 

 

Its not the new normal.   Things don't change so dramatically like that.

 

We said it was impossible to have a February like we just had as well.      And people said California would never escape drought again... but here we are with no drought in CA.  

[TacomaWaWx]

[TT-SEA]

I didn’t say it was the new normal. I said it was like that recently. I already agreed with you awhile ago I said it it can be cooler during the summer and the last 2 summers aren’t indicative of every summer I got it already you don’t have to keep trying to prove a point you already did . I’m just saying...that recently...it’s been warmer than the “normal” and hopefully it’s not the new “normal”.

 

For clarification... you said our summers are always "hot and dry".     That is why I am using our historical averages to show you that is not the reality.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Willamette is probably about as high as I have seen it since I started working here in 2014.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

For clarification... you said our summers are always "hot and dry". That is why I am using our historical averages to show you that is not the reality.

My definition of hot and dry was different. You don’t consider 75 hot and dry and I do. Part of the misunderstanding. Most days in the summer are 75 and sunny that’s how it usually is some people consider that hot some don’t. Overall the summers are dry and let’s call it mild not hot, with 5-10 days of rain usually from June-August at the most.

My apologies for the misunderstanding. I happen to think that most of the things and opinions you have are good and you have facts to back your arguments and have seen a lot more years of PNW weather than I have so I respect your opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Willamette is probably about as high as I have seen it since I started working here in 2014.

 

 

Amazing pic.

 

And also the trees are sooooo far behind us up here.   Even at my elevation... the cottonwood trees are all leafed out now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Flood warning posted for the Southern Willamette Valley.

 

Benton OR-Linn OR-Lane OR-
803 AM PDT Mon Apr 8 2019

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Southeastern Benton County in western Oregon...
Southwestern Linn County in northwestern Oregon...
Central Lane County in western Oregon...

* Until 745 PM PDT Monday.

* As of 745 AM PDT, flooding along several creeks and rivers in the
southern Willamette Valley and surrounding foothills is ongoing
due to heavy rain over the past 36 hours. An additional inch of
rain is likely today, especially in the Cascades and foothills
southeast of Eugene.

* Flooding has already been reported along the Calapooia River in
Brownsville and the Row River near Cottage Grove. Other cities
that may see flooding along area creeks and smaller rivers include
Corvallis, Albany, Eugene, Springfield, and Junction City, along
with surrounding towns and rural areas.

Note that flood warnings are also in effect for some of the larger
rivers in the area, include the Coast Fork Willamette and Mohawk. A
flood watch remains in effect due to the potential for more mainstem
river flooding, including the Willamette, today and Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

Live pic here...

 

[Kayla]

Its just silly to say that we normally have hot summers up here with water shortages and smoke.    History says otherwise.   

 

We have a fairly cool summer climate with about an 8-week period when rain is less likely than the rest of the year.

 

Meh, summer is pretty long over there for its latitude. Portland's summer is longer than winter which you won't see anywhere at that latitude east of the Cascades.

[TT-SEA]

Meh, summer is pretty long over there for its latitude. Portland's summer is longer than winter which you won't see anywhere at that latitude east of the Cascades.

Portland definitely has longer and warmer summers than we do up here.

[Kayla]

Live pic here...

 

Beautiful. Looks like mid summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain increasing across the Central and Southern Valley.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful. Looks like mid summer.

 

 

Not even close!  

 

Here is mid summer...  a pic from July 8th last year.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Portland definitely has longer and warmer summers than we do up here.

This is something I wanted to bring up. The Puget Ice Shelf really puts a damper on summer temperatures up in the Seattle area. The SeaTac station is actually a cool spot in the summer for that exact reason, proximity to the 50-55 degree pool of water.

 

Everywhere south and east of Puget Sound, at least in lowland areas, has warmer summers. And yes, most of the PNW is very warm for its latitude.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Willamette at Salem expected to crest at 26.3' on Wednesday which would be the highest since January 2012.

[Kayla]

Not even close!  

 

Here is mid summer...  a pic from July 8th last year.

 

It's still pretty close minus those Daisy's!

[TT-SEA]

It's still pretty close minus those Daisy's!

 

 

Trees will still get much fuller of course.    And much more than daisies will be in bloom by July. 

[Jesse]

Perhaps weather doesn't change dramatically like that. But I would argue that water supply will continue to change irreversibly. Glacial meltwater is Washington's most critical water resource in July and August and it has been incredibly impacted over the last decade. The meltwater is what keeps our rivers high and cool enough for the salmon population (and other fish and wildlife) during the driest months when the snowpack is depleted.

Listen, our summers are horribly cool and short, so drought, fire and low river levels should be enjoyed to their fullest.

[TT-SEA]

Listen, our summers are horribly cool and short and drought, fire and low river levels should be enjoyed to their fullest.

 

 

Hyperbole!  

 

You know I am right about the Seattle area based on historical averages.

[TacomaWaWx]

This is something I wanted to bring up. The Puget Ice Shelf really puts a damper on summer temperatures up in the Seattle area. The SeaTac station is actually a cool spot in the summer for that exact reason, proximity to the 50-55 degree pool of water.

 

Everywhere south and east of Puget Sound, at least in lowland areas, has warmer summers. And yes, most of the PNW is very warm for its latitude.

The Puget Sound is like having snow cover around during the summer, has a big effect on the temps within 5-10 miles of the sound. Keeps us warmer during lowland snow events but cooler in the hot summer days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At 19.71' the Willamette will soon go above 20'. Here are impacts in the Salem area for when that happens.

 

20

Above 20 ft, Access roads to the islands on the Willamette River near Salem begin to flood.

 

This is how a crest of 26.3' on Wednesday would impact the area.

 

 

Above 26 ft, Expect flooding of numerous roads along the Willamette in the Salem area. Homes on Browns Island begin flooding at this level. 

[Jesse]

Headed over to North Central Oregon yesterday. Took 26 over Mount Hood then down past White River Falls, over Sherar’s Bridge on the Deschutes, and eventually Cottonwood Canyon State Park on the lower John Day River. There was light to moderate rain most of the day even over there. The trajectory of the precipitation limited shadowing. In fact I noticed that The Dalles had a higher precip total than Portland yesterday.

 

Things were very green in the desert, and the John Day was running high. White River falls was also the fullest and muddiest I’ve ever seen it. Pics to come.

[TacomaWaWx]