April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Phil]

Contrary to Tim’s earlier suggestions, the 12z EPS is colder than average through D15.

 

D5-10 and d10-15:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Detroit Lake east of Salem rose 7' today. It has risen 40' in the past 5 days. 

[Phil]

18z ensemble looks pretty ridgy in the long range. Enjoy the last few raindrops the next few days guys, hot and dry season will be starting soon.

Are you going to spaz out before/during every single intraseasonal warm cycle? In an El Niño year nonetheless?

 

A 2-3 week stretch of warm/dry weather is in the pipeline at some point down the road late this month into May. It’s not the end of the world.

[Jesse]

Detroit Lake east of Salem rose 7' today. It has risen 40' in the past 5 days.

If that dam broke do you think the flood would make it down to Salem?

 

Although I believe the South Salem hills separate the town from the Santiam drainage proper. So they might be ok. Same couldn’t be said for Lyons, Stayton, Sublimity, Jefferson.

[Timmy Supercell]

Detroit Lake east of Salem rose 7' today. It has risen 40' in the past 5 days. 

 

Hopefully now they'll stop saying Detroit Lake is "below normal" but who knows, that lake is hardly representative of the whole PNW.

[Jesse]

Are you going to spaz out before/during every single intraseasonal warm cycle? In an El Niño year nonetheless?

 

A 2-3 week stretch of warm/dry weather is in the pipeline at some point down the road late this month into May. It’s not the end of the world.

You need to get better at reading between the tongue ‘n cheek lines.

 

Maybe the question is are you going to spaz out every time someone mentions a long range outlook that doesn’t fit yours, even in jest.

[High Desert Mat?]

If that dam broke do you think the flood would make it down to Salem?

 

Although I believe the South Salem hills separate the town from the Santiam drainage proper. So they might be ok. Same couldn’t be said for Lyons, Stayton, Sublimity, Jefferson.

No way. Not possible. Once you get past about the north fork of Santiam and points west it really opens up to flat farm fields both north and south. They would get a good watering there and the farmers would be happy?!? I think it may get to about Gates and it would really fizzle out after that. Anyways, been raining in Redmond for the last 30 hours. Crazy for here but still only about .65 of rain.

[Jesse]

No way. Not possible. Once you get past about the north fork of Santiam and points west it really opens up to flat farm fields both north and south. They would get a good watering there and the farmers would be happy?!? I think it may get to about Gates and it would really fizzle out after that. Anyways, been raining in Redmond for the last 30 hours. Crazy for here but still only about .65 of rain.

I don’t know, the dam is almost 500’ tall. That’s an awful lot of water if it’s full.

[El_Nina]

I think orogrpahics were enhancing things to a degree, but it’s more about where the front ended up stalling.

Would it have stalled there had it not been for the mountains?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If that dam broke do you think the flood would make it down to Salem?

 

Although I believe the South Salem hills separate the town from the Santiam drainage proper. So they might be ok. Same couldn’t be said for Lyons, Stayton, Sublimity, Jefferson.

 

Yeah the town is separated from the Santiam drainage, however the excess flow from the Santiam could cause flooding, especially if it broke during high water. 

[Jesse]

Would it have stalled there had it not been for the mountains?

I guess you can never really say for sure, but I think so. Where it stalled had to do more with the pattern in the upper levels than surface topography. Although since it happened to stall where it did the topography was in a good position to enhance precipitation further.

[Jesse]

Yeah the town is separated from the Santiam drainage, however the excess flow from the Santiam could cause flooding, especially if it broke during high water.

Yes I imagine there would be major effects on the Willamette in downtown Salem.

[Front Ranger]

Again I ask...  is Justin OK?   Its been weeks since he posted.

 

Sometimes people just get bored and take a break. Or have other life stuff going. No big deal.

[TT-SEA]

Contrary to Tim’s earlier suggestions, the 12z EPS is colder than average through D15.

 

D5-10 and d10-15:

 

Yeah... except I never said it was not. And certainly never said it was warmer than normal. I just said it was different than the operational run at day 10. Which it was... and that was an accurate statement. Reading way too much into everything I post dude.

[Front Ranger]

Today feels like a real pineapple!

 

Prickly?

[Phil]

You need to get better at reading between the tongue ‘n cheek lines.

 

Maybe the question is are you going to spaz out every time someone mentions a long range outlook that doesn’t fit yours, even in jest.

What long range outlook did you mention? Just saying when you make the same post 5 times in 18 hours it reads more like an anxious laugh.

 

The desert is always on the horizon. Lurking at the end of every GFS run. Haha.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A failure of the Silver Creek Dam would destroy most of the low lying areas of Silverton including downtown within minutes. A lot of people in town are really paranoid about it. If it happened without warning it is likely hundreds of people would be killed. 

[Phil]

Yeah... except I never said it was not. And certainly never said it was warmer than normal. I just said it was different than the operational run at day 10. Which it was... and that was an accurate statement. Reading way too much into everything I post dude.

You were implying a warm, ridgy solution. Don’t deny it.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the rain has finally stopped at EUG. Over 4" in 54 hours. Pretty nuts for April.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is a 2010 analysis of the effects of a failure of the Silver Creek Dam. An interesting read.

 

http://www.97381.com/dam/dam01.html

[Front Ranger]

What long range outlook did you mention? Just saying when you make the same post 5 times in 18 hours it reads more like an anxious laugh.

 

The desert is always on the horizon. Lurking at the end of every GFS run. Haha.

 

Almost as bad as your dread-soaked posts about swamp summer being right around the corner.

[TT-SEA]

You were implying a warm, ridgy solution. Don’t deny it.

I showed the map and said it was different the operational run. The rest is all you.

[Phil]

I showed the map and said it was different the operational run. The rest is all you.

[Front Ranger]

Here is a 2010 analysis of the effects of a failure of the Silver Creek Dam. An interesting read.

 

http://www.97381.com/dam/dam01.html

 

Sounds like they think a 100 year rain event could potentially cause dam-breaching and then failure. Kind of surprising they don't already have a warning system in place for an event that theoretically has a 1% chance of happening every year.

[TT-SEA]

Phil is pretty manic tonight.

[Phil]

Almost as bad as your dread-soaked posts about swamp summer being right around the corner.

I haven’t typed the word “swamp” or “humidity” since New Years. It was a resolution of mine to not drag that stuff into this thread, fwiw.

[Front Ranger]

I haven’t typed the word “swamp” or “humidity” since New Years. It was a resolution of mine to not drag that stuff into this thread, fwiw.

Maybe not those exact words, but you've definitely made angsty posts about summer in here recently.

[Phil]

Phil is pretty manic tonight.

Haha. Am I that bad? We won our first game of the season tonight and just let loose afterwards, so I might’ve had one too many “ta-kill-ya” shots.

[TT-SEA]

Haha. Am I that bad? We won our first game of the season tonight and just let loose afterwards, so I might’ve had one too many “ta-kill-ya” shots.

 

 

You seem pretty manic tonight... looking for a dog to kick.   Or multiple dogs.   

[The Swamp]

Man the swamp got pounded hard this afternoon. Pretty cool to see the intense cells roll through.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Maybe a few moments of dry weather tomorrow to make a game-plan for this yard.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe a few moments of dry weather tomorrow to make a game-plan for this yard.

 

I went outside last night and cut down a couple small trees on the property line. The goal is to get a fence up on the lower pasture this spring since we cleared it for the wedding last summer. I thought about it tonight, but it was just pouring...Watching the game seemed like a better idea. 

[ShawniganLake]

Pouring rain here tonight. Deformation zone!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Latest ENSO updates seem to be trending towards a weak Nino or neutral conditions. 

[Jesse]

Latest ENSO updates seem to be trending towards a weak Nino or neutral conditions.

Know wonder Phil’s so mad tonight.

[jakeinthevalley]

Growing up in Stayton, it was predicted that a complete breach of Detroit Dam at full pool, would inundate the town with 40'of water within 45 minutes.

West of town is where the water would spread out. Salem would be affected, but mainly along the Willamette flow plain

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z looks drier in the long range. Makes sense. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Growing up in Stayton, it was predicted that a complete breach of Detroit Dam at full pool, would inundate the town with 40'of water within 45 minutes.

West of town is where the water would spread out. Salem would be affected, but mainly along the Willamette flow plain

 

I always wondered what would happen to Big Cliff Dam, would it just blow out immediately? Probably I guess...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We are going to get pasted this December. Just a feeling.

[jakeinthevalley]

 

Sounds like they think a 100 year rain event could potentially cause dam-breaching and then failure. Kind of surprising they don't already have a warning system in place for an event that theoretically has a 1% chance of happening every year.[/quote

 

A complete failure of the Silver Creek Dam would destroy everything from downtown east within minutes. A warning system would only give you enough time to kiss your own a** goodbye if you lived in that valley.