October 2014 observations and discussion

[james1976]

GFS starting to go back to zonal flow. Not much troughiness.

[Meichel]

Went fishing early today on Lake Delevan around 7:30am, it was a very brisk and chilly day on the water.  I caught his Largemouth Bass around 9:00am or so and the lake was steaming!  Just like Lake Michigan is in the winter time.  It was sorta neat to be in the middle of it, water temp was 62F and it had to be close to 35F-40F before it faded away.  The conditions on the water deteriorated as the day went on bc the wind funneled down the length of the lake and the white caps picked up.  It was slow from then on.

Nice Bass!

[Tom]

Nice Bass!

Thanks!  I'm heading out on the Chain again this Sunday.  Hopefully the weather cooperates...right now it looks to be ideal.  Hoping to land my first one. 

[Tom]

So ORD did in fact set a new record low max of 47F on Saturday.  I was on the road and didn't notice it until LOT posted this...

 

October 4, 2014: Early Season Record Chill Brings Early Snowfall

Relevant Climate Records and Stats for October 4th, 2014

• For Chicago:
  • Snowfall
    • Chicago recorded the third earliest snow on record on October 4th, beginning at 6:58 am CDT.
    • In Chicago, the earliest traces of snow on record dating back to 1881 were September 25, 1928 and September 25, 1942.
  • Temperature
    • Chicago set a record low maximum temperature for October 4th of 47 degrees.
    • The previous record low maximum temperature for Chicago on that day was 48° in 1935.
    • To put this in perspective, the average minimum temperature for October 4th is 46.  The average high is 67.
    • The record low temperature of 32 degrees (set in 1989) was not reached.  The low was only 35.

[BrianJK]

Nice catch Tom!

[Tom]

Pretty impressive cold shot now appearing on the 12z Euro control and ensembles seeing it to around the 18th-20th...my sisters wedding is on the 18th and I asked her a couple months ago..."what would you do if snow flakes were falling from the sky on your wedding?"  She looked at me with a frustrated look....lol

[Geos]

Pretty impressive cold shot now appearing on the 12z Euro control and ensembles seeing it to around the 18th-20th...my sisters wedding is on the 18th and I asked her a couple months ago..."what would you do if snow flakes were falling from the sky on your wedding?"  She looked at me with a frustrated look....lol

 

I bet she did! lol

I'm supposed to go to an outdoor event that day - not a wedding though. Don't mind it being cold, but hopefully it's not wet at least. 

 

Mid 50s today, kind of variably cloudy all day. This week looks largely below normal now.

[Geos]

GFS starting to go back to zonal flow. Not much troughiness.

 

It will end up changing again, I guarantee it! This week was supposed to have 60s and a few low 70s, but now it's looking like 65° at best and mostly 50s.

[james1976]

It will end up changing again, I guarantee it! This week was supposed to have 60s and a few low 70s, but now it's looking like 65° at best and mostly 50s.

Yeah I hear ya. Over here they were talking mostly 60s this week but now it looks to fall back to upper 50s late week and into the weekend. So it prolly wont hit the normal high at all, which is 67.

[james1976]

I dont know if im buying this. Local mets have my area just below normal.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[Tom]

Tyhpoon Vongfong spinning in the western pacific may strengthen to a Cat 5 intensity (165mph winds) before turning north into Japan later this week.  This will become a super Typhoon and more than likely bring devastation into mainland Japan.  Check out this beautiful eye wall structure and infared satellite imagery on the Tyhpoon.  That is a mean looking Typhoon.

 

Looking down the road, I'd expect to see the models hone in a major trough developing.  GFS is flip flopping, but Euro ensembles digging a bigger and deeper trough around the 18th and beyond.  This pattern should bring about some record cold again.  Maybe even some more early season snows!

[Maxim]

Mid/late month looks like a torch

[Tom]

12z GFS...flipping back to the real chill as expected utilizing the East Asian Theory...it'll prob go back and forth for a few days.  Nonetheless, a stormy and chilly pattern on tap as we head deeper into October.

[james1976]

That's an impressive looking storm. Very organized.

12z GFS more troughy in long range. I'm sure it will flip flop but one would think with this typhoon that we will see a big trough develop. Nice to see Euro ensembles on board.

[Niko]

A very raw, chilly, cloudish day today with temps hovering right around 55F. Showers will be possible later today, which will make it very damp and cold outside.

[Tom]

This Super Typhoon may strengthen to winds speeds of up to 190mph!  Insane!  It might be even stronger than the super Typhoon that hit the Philippines last year, could be one of THE strongest Typhoon's in history.  I found out that this storm is "annular", meaning, the storm's eye wall is perfectly symmetrical by a huge ring of convection.  These storms tend to keep their intensity and weaken very slowly.  The reason why I mention this is because it could become a major system to track somewhere in the central/eastern CONUS around the 20th-24th timeframe.

[james1976]

Must be a tropical system expected to develop in the Atlantic?
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Geos]

Made it to 64° today, which is about normal. Rest of the week in the 50s for the most part.

[Tom]

The Euro weeklies that came in a couple days ago are looking real chilly, especially as October closes out and November opens.  Something the CFS has been hinting at as well.

[james1976]

Man, the 12z GFS is warm. Is this thing on it's own planet or what? Seems like every other model is chilly.

[Maxim]

lol this is too funny...

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[james1976]

I don't think I've ever seen that before.

[Tom]

lol this is too funny...

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Indeed, that is +AO signature and in the next 15 days the AO is not heading in positive territory.  The Typhoon Rule has worked with amazing accuracy and I personally don't believe it will flop on this one.  The Euro ensembles were flipping warm yesterday in the east, now it is seeing the trough rotating through around the 18th and beyond.  Lets see if this case study works out this time.

[Geos]

Indeed, that is +AO signature and in the next 15 days the AO is not heading in positive territory.  The Typhoon Rule has worked with amazing accuracy and I personally don't believe it will flop on this one.  The Euro ensembles were flipping warm yesterday in the east, now it is seeing the trough rotating through around the 18th and beyond.  Lets see if this case study works out this time.

 

Yeah I don't believe that either. Never seen the entire continental US covered in above normal temperatures before.

[james1976]

18z flipped to a bit of troughiness. Lets see how this goes on next few runs.

[james1976]

IDK about the CPC. My local mets have temps below normal for next 7 days and DMX is talking about below normal through next week as well with a trough coming through early next week.

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS  
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION  
LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND. WILL ALSO  
RETARD THE WARMING FORECAST BY THE MEX MOS DUE TO CLOUDS AND  
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.  

[tim the weatherman]

IDK about the CPC. My local mets have temps below normal for next 7 days and DMX is talking about below normal through next week as well with a trough coming through early next week.

 

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS  

FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION  

LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND. WILL ALSO  

RETARD THE WARMING FORECAST BY THE MEX MOS DUE TO CLOUDS AND  

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.  

this is amazing james1976 i don,t know who made the forecast from the cpc but he is wrong because that means that the epo/wpo,ao and nao have to be positve for the jet stream to go zonal flow so that means that the local mets is dead on about this.

[james1976]

Local mets now have me in the upper 60s by late next week.

[Tom]

The rain system early next week looks like a classic Pan Handle Hook into the lower lakes.  GFS and Euro are looking more organized with this system.  Will be a nice storm to track in the winter months.

[Tom]

The new JMA weekly runs are in and Week 2 is showing a pretty large ridge in the west/central CONUS.  Still not sold on that pattern given the Typhoon hitting Japan.   I really think the models are having a difficult time figuring out what to do with all that energy in the western pacific and the strengthening jet stream during the autumn months.

[Tom]

12z GFS looking like the 00z Euro and swinging a trough through the Lakes next weekend.  Fits the evolution of the pattern.

[Tom]

The AO indexes are beginning to be lowered in the mid/long range as models pick up on the Typhoon energy hitting the north pacific.  Sooner or later the models will have the troughs dig deeper next weekend into early the following week.

[Tom]

12z Euro looking more organized each run for Monday's system...so is the GFS...nice soaker from this system.

[james1976]

Nice donuthole in Iowa. glad to see an organized system though. Is this the 2nd one in the new LRC?

[Tom]

Nice donuthole in Iowa. glad to see an organized system though. Is this the 2nd one in the new LRC?

Ya, I believe so...hopefully many more to come.  I'm watching out for the next storm correlated with the Typhoon.  That one should be interesting.

[james1976]

Interesting little piece from DMX afternoon disco

MODELS DIVERGE IN THE OUT PERIODS AND BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF  
ADVERTISED A TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE EAST WHILE THE GFS IS QUITE  
A BIT SOFTER. WOULD THINK THE ECMWF HAS THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE  
PATTERN WITH THE RECURVATURE OF THE SUPER TYPHOON IN THE WPAC AT  
PRESENT.  

[Scott26]

Hi guys it has been a while. I haven't posted since last winter, but I have been lurking these boards and continuing to track storms and learn more about Weather. I'm a senior in high school now and I plan on majoring in Meteorology because it's my passion. I applied to and I'm already accepted to Northern Illinois University, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Iowa State University. They all have excellent Meteorology programs, but I'm leaning towards Iowa State right now. I do have a meeting tomorrow morning with a professor at University Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the Atmospheric Science department and I really liked Northern Illinois as well so I'm still strongly considering those schools. This is my second year leading Meteorology Club at my high school and it's amazing teaching and getting my classmates excited about the weather. We were able to get our school (Stevenson High School in Lincolnshire,IL) to purchase a WeatherBug which Skilling has used a couple of times in his forecasts. I told the people in my club about these forums and the fun and learning experience we have tracking upcoming storms so hopefully some of them will join. The rest of this fall into the winter months looks fairly active so fun times ahead!

[james1976]

Hi guys it has been a while. I haven't posted since last winter, but I have been lurking these boards and continuing to track storms and learn more about Weather. I'm a senior in high school now and I plan on majoring in Meteorology because it's my passion. I applied to and I'm already accepted to Northern Illinois University, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Iowa State University. They all have excellent Meteorology programs, but I'm leaning towards Iowa State right now. I do have a meeting tomorrow morning with a professor at University Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the Atmospheric Science department and I really liked Northern Illinois as well so I'm still strongly considering those schools. This is my second year leading Meteorology Club at my high school and it's amazing teaching and getting my classmates excited about the weather. We were able to get our school (Stevenson High School in Lincolnshire,IL) to purchase a WeatherBug which Skilling has used a couple of times in his forecasts. I told the people in my club about these forums and the fun and learning experience we have tracking upcoming storms so hopefully some of them will join. The rest of this fall into the winter months looks fairly active so fun times ahead!

Very cool...congrats!

[Tom]

@ Scott....Go Hawks!!!!  Lets bring Lord Stanley back to Chicago!  I'm sure your watching the season opener right now.  Good luck in school and lets hope for another blockbuster winter!

[Tom]

00z GFS strengthens the Mon/Tue system with some heavy rains into IA/WI....

 

Edit: This storms deepens into a 994mb SLP into N MI