October 2014 observations and discussion

[james1976]

a winter-like system. cant wait til it comes back around in december.

[james1976]

6z GFS with a nice trough and storm around the 20th-21st.

[Tom]

With a -NAO/AO shaping up towards mid month, I highly doubt we will see any above normal temps.  00z Euro maybe had 1 or 2 days near normal, the rest were below. 

[Tom]

a winter-like system. cant wait til it comes back around in december.

Not only that, but the remnants of Simon impacting the southern Plains from NE/MO/S IL is something they haven't seen much of last year.  This could be a prolific snow producer in the winter time.  The LRC seems to be covering a lot of real estate with precip this year which will be very impactful for a lot of this nation.

[Tom]

When I posted that Jetstream structure on the Euro a few days ago, I knew this system had potential to become a vigorous one.  Looks like a windy and wet storm on tap for Monday.  12z GFS deepening to a 992mb SLP.

[Tom]

Might have some Frost Advisories posted tonight in N IL and even Freeze Warnings in IA...

[james1976]

When I posted that Jetstream structure on the Euro a few days ago, I knew this system had potential to become a vigorous one.  Looks like a windy and wet storm on tap for Monday.  12z GFS deepening to a 992mb SLP.

Man, that is the perfect track for my area

[Tom]

Man, that is the perfect track for my area

And you were complaining about the doughnut hole a couple days ago...patience my friend!  2 for 2 with phased systems this October so far....in our region that is.

[Hawkeye]

The nws and locals are going several degrees colder than what the Euro is showing by 12z Saturday.

[Tom]

The nws and locals are going several degrees colder than what the Euro is showing by 12z Saturday.

Yup, Euro under did the cold the last time as well, esp last night around here.

[Hawkeye]

Yup, Euro under did the cold the last time as well, esp last night around here.

 

DMX is now going with a freeze or even hard freeze for much of their area... mid 20s to low 30s.  I'm sure DVN will do something similar for areas north of I-80.  There are some fairly thick high clouds over Iowa now, but they should clear by midnight.  The temp should crater once it clears.  I will be covering several of my good plants and I'll be getting up at 4am to put pots of hot water under the sheets.  I still have two hummingbirds that need the blooms to feed.

[james1976]

And you were complaining about the doughnut hole a couple days ago...patience my friend!  2 for 2 with phased systems this October so far....in our region that is.

I wasnt complaining...i didnt really care since it isnt a snowstorm. THEN i would be complaining, lol. And actually my area was still hit with precip on that map.....the doughnut hole was west of me.

[james1976]

DMX is now going with a freeze or even hard freeze for much of their area... mid 20s to low 30s.  I'm sure DVN will do something similar for areas north of I-80.  There are some fairly thick high clouds over Iowa now, but they should clear by midnight.  The temp should crater once it clears.  I will be covering several of my good plants and I'll be getting up at 4am to put pots of hot water under the sheets.  I still have two hummingbirds that need the blooms to feed.

Yes!!! Just noticed. Freeze Warning issued for me. Possible MID 20s. This is considerably lower than what they were talking yesterday when they were forecasting low 30s. Perfect timing since I plan on mowing my lawn tomorrow....which should now be the last time this year

[james1976]

DMX going with a wet forecast early next week and then ridging, but they are saying temps will only get to normal or slightly below later next week. Doesnt look to be much if any above normal temps in the next 7 days.

[Tom]

Tonights cold is a classic example of the source region of where this cold came from.  Models weren't to robust a few days ago, but then honed in on a colder look.  Something I believe will happen again later next weekend into early the following week.

[Scott26]

I'm hoping to see a powerful wind system this fall. It has been a while since we saw High Wind Warning criteria. The October 2010 wind storm was one of the first storms that really got me into Meteorology. The severe weather and non-thunderstorm wind gusts were very impressive. The low pressure got down to 955 mb in Minnesota with that storm.

[Geos]

Might have some Frost Advisories posted tonight in N IL and even Freeze Warnings in IA...

 

Freeze warnings were expanded a bit in WI tonight. 

 

Only 54° today, but mostly sunny all day. Down to 36° imby already. Likely looking at a low near 32° tonight, which will probably finish off the rest of the garden plants.

 

That's very cool Scott that you got accepted into all three schools! Best of luck in picking one of them. 

[Tom]

It was a frosty morning and most suburbs were reporting heavy frost around these parts.  How cold did it get out in IA or WI this morning??? 

[Tom]

Torch, what Torch???  The GFS over the past several runs is now beginning to point towards the evolution of a colder pattern towards next weekend into the following week.  Another Hudson Bay Low looks to develop with a Blocking pattern developing near Greenland, this would be the 2nd in a matter of 3 weeks.  This has become a common theme this October and for the new LRC pattern.  I believe we will be seeing a lot of these Hudson Bay low's this winter season.

[Geos]

33° here for the 2nd time this month. More annuals bit the dust this morning. 

 

Climbing into the 50s, but with clouds increasing.

[Tom]

Impressive rain totals on the 12z Euro...this SLP gets cut off and spins in the Midwest.

[james1976]

Impressive rain totals on the 12z Euro...this SLP gets cut off and spins in the Midwest.

Euro is still showing that? Every other model is more progressive....but Euro has been holding steady with this feature. Interesting. Either way, this should be a good system when it comes back around in December.

[Tom]

Euro is still showing that? Every other model is more progressive....but Euro has been holding steady with this feature. Interesting. Either way, this should be a good system when it comes back around in December.

GFS is now showing it cutting off...

[Tom]

Nice short read from Gary Lezak on the developing system on Monday...

 

http://www.weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/18.jpg

 

The map above shows the 500 mb flow forecast on Sunday evening. Energy will be diving in, and this pattern is so very different from last year. We had systems dive in, but they wouldn’t mature into storm systems right over Missouri like this one is likely going to do.  This will very likely be one of the exhibits for our winter forecast that we will issue in a few weeks.

 

 

http://www.weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/23.jpg

 

 

More Pan Handle Hooks and GL Cutters????  I like the sound of that!

[Hawkeye]

It was a frosty morning and most suburbs were reporting heavy frost around these parts.  How cold did it get out in IA or WI this morning??? 

 

The northwest half of the state had a freeze as expected, but we came up well short of the expected low.  Our forecast had 29, but the CR airport only hit 33.  Here in town most spots remained well above freezing.  I covered my best plants, but even my tender lantanas that were left exposed to frost/freeze appear completely unharmed.  Even my tropical cannas in the nearby open field, which was pretty frosty, fared pretty well with only some minor leaf burn.

[Tom]

The battle in the long range between GFS vs Euro after next weekend.  Euro ensembles keep pointing at bringing a massive ridge into all of Canada, the Upper Midwest, Plains and Midwest after the 22nd towards the end of the month.  Very skeptical to see such warmth building in where there is already a snow cover in parts of Canada where the model is seeing warmth.  The Euro has been having a warm bias this season, it also didn't see the trough coming in next weekend in the long range and now it is seeing it for Sat/Sun.  It would be laughable if the GFS won this case study AGAIN!  I'll post some of the maps.  My feeling is the model corrects the warmth west, expands the eastern trough as the Typhoon energy digs a west based GOA low which will create a deeper eastern trough.

[Geos]

Total moisture on the NAM through 84 hr.

 

[Tom]

I'm going to show you the usual, GFS feedback problem of skirting a trough and/or storm out to fast to the east.  I'm posting the last 4 runs for next Saturday 21z and you can see how the model is forecasting a deeper trough, farther west with each run.  Something the Euro is also doing and this is exactly what was happening last year as well.  Having said that, expect the models in the longer term correct the cold/trough farther west in our region (esp the Euro IMO).

[Tom]

Here is a better look at the GFS progression...very evident using the 500mb charts, it may even get deeper as we get closer.  BTW, 18z GFS still agreeing with a huge eastern trough in the longer range.  IMO, GFS is going to win this battle given the pattern setting up.

[Geos]

Here is a better look at the GFS progression...very evident using the 500mb charts, it may even get deeper as we get closer.  BTW, 18z GFS still agreeing with a huge eastern trough in the longer range.  IMO, GFS is going to win this battle given the pattern setting up.

 

Nice catches! GFS is backing that trough up. Always tricky this time of year with the change in seasons!

 

57° today. Month is building up a nice negative departure so far.

 

[Scott26]

Frost Advisory for the entire area other then Cook Country. Calm winds and clear skies should really get temps down tonight similar to last night. The Monday system looks very interesting and could be some severe weather with that further south and east.

[Geos]

Down to 38° here. So far 5 mornings this month with low in the 30s.

[Tom]

Down to 38° here. So far 5 mornings this month with low in the 30s.

You will probably hit the upper 20's the following week.  A significant cool down is in the cards following next weekend.  Already 00z GFS showing highs in low 50's Sat, highs in upper 40's Sun and possible a string of 40's.  Very chilly looking long range in the eastern CONUS.

[Tom]

Overnight 00z Euro runs concur with the GFS and on board with a huge cold shot next weekend into the following week.  Could possibly be the first freezes around here which would be right on time.  High temps not getting out of the 40's Sun-Tue! Case study will work yet again.  NOAA has no clue what they are doing.  I mean, even TWC knows about the Typhoon Rule and they were talking about a trough hitting in 6-10 days.

 

Temps may even trend colder as we get closer as has been the case this season.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like we are in for a good soaking tomorrow. Man I can't wait for some snow.

[Tom]

00z Euro has some widespread 2-4" rainfall totals...

[Tom]

What did I say...12z Euro even colder for Saturday and a bit farther west with the trough.  I don't think my sister and her bride's maid's will be too happy wearing thin outfits!

[james1976]

I like how the models are trending. And that system tomorrow looks impressive. Should be a big snowstorm when it comes back around in December.

[Tom]

Wow, very impressive cold shot showing up now in the Lakes for next Monday and beyond!  High temps not getting out of the 30's in N Wisco on Monday possibly.  Hello early season arctic air!

[Niko]

Was it snow on the ground IMBY this morning and yesterday morning???? Everything had a white thin layer. I.E, Car tops, roofs, grassy surfaces and even leafs on trees were whiten up. Temperatures were near 30F this morning. What an awesome scene.

Now, if a  warmp-up comes, it can officially be called an "Indian Summer."