11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System

[gosaints]

Looks like the gfs will adjust from its whacky 18z run

[Geos]

GFS looks like that one run of the GGEM that had the snow stretched out behind the low.

[gosaints]

Lol good luck forecasting this thing

[Scott26]

So the GFS gives Western Wisconsin nothing and the NAM has 12 plus inches. That is hilarious lol

[Money]

Anyone have rgem snow maps?

[Geos]

Anyone have rgem snow maps?

 

Here is the map from the CMC website.

 

[Geos]

Current GFS

 

 

 

 

Even KC gets snow on this run! ... and a little for Omaha.

 

[Scott26]

00Z RGEM... and it's still snowing

[Geos]

Parallel GFS 974mb near the Mackinaw at 12pm Monday. Quite a bit of moisture in the cold sector.

[Money]

Total snow on the pgfs?

[Geos]

Total snow on the pgfs?

 

[Madtown]

Lock it in 1 day out dab to 6" final call....lol

[Scott26]

1-3 inches looks like a pretty good call over here. I have Meteorology club after school on Monday and it would be sweet to witness the transition from rain to snow.

[Money]

Ukie is a monster hit for WI

[Geos]

1-3 inches looks like a pretty good call over here. I have Meteorology club after school on Monday and it would be sweet to witness the transition from rain to snow.

 

The changeover might be more like noon time - at least that's what the GGEM shows.

 

 

[Scott26]

The changeover might be more like noon time - at least that's what the GGEM shows.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-7389-0-96540600-1416718349.png

 The GFS doesn't show a transition until late afternoon. We will see, timing is obviously going to be difficult with this one.

[Money]

0z NAM bufkit

 

OSH: 3.5

GRB: 3.7

LSE: 6.0

MKE: 0.5

MSN: 2.0

ORD: 1.3

[Money]

0z GFS Bufkit:

 

MKE: 3.4

OSH: 1.0

LSE: 0.8

GRB: 0.9

MSN: 2.5

ORD: 2.8

[Money]

MKE snow map

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mkx/wx/File.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

0z GFS Bufkit:

 

MKE: 3.4

OSH: 1.0

LSE: 0.8

GRB: 0.9

MSN: 2.5

ORD: 2.8

 

Lol, all over the place.  MKE receives the least snow of any of these locations with the NAM, the most snow with the GFS.

[Money]

LSE goes from a potential WSW on the NAM to a dusting on the GFS and we are within 36-48 hours lol

 

No idea what I would do if I were a forecaster.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

LSE goes from a potential WSW on the NAM to a dusting on the GFS and we are within 36-48 hours lol

 

No idea what I would do if I were a forecaster.

 

I tend to side with the idea the highest amounts from the deformation zone will bisect the state from SW to NE, so Madison and Green Bay may see 3-6", my vague call for MKE will be 1-4" lol.  La Crosse I will say 2-5".

[Money]

Here is UKIE HR 48

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

2M temps at HR 48

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/TS_TS_PN_048_0000.gif

 

Now here is precip totals from HR 48-60

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

At least .3-.4 QPF all snow in E/S. WI. Don't know how much before 48 falls as snow 

[Geos]

This is a "pull your hair out" type system! 

 

If this system decides to phase even quicker, the models may not get it right until the day of!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

This is a "pull your hair out" type system! 

 

If this system decides to phase even quicker, the models may not get it right until the day of!

 

Yep, and since we're talking about 30-40mph winds, perhaps a couple of greater gusts, the difference between a dusting vs 4-5" of snow is monumental in terms of travel conditions.

[Money]

It would be pretty funny/sad if the euro came in and showed nothing again.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

It would be pretty funny/sad if the euro came in and showed nothing again.

 

And then suppressed any snowfall for later in the week.

[Tom]

Jim Ramsey just showed about 3" for ORD using their RPM Model...

[Geos]

Jim Ramsey just showed about 3" for ORD using their RPM Model...

 

Wow, just now!? Late broadcast.

 

EURO is pretty far east with the low. 987 in SW MI. It has some snow with it this time. Looks similar to the GFS.

[gosaints]

Wow good trends to the south and east tonight. I will rise the Canadians! Not to safe to do!

[Tom]

Wow, just now!? Late broadcast.

 

EURO is pretty far east with the low. 987 in SW MI. It has some snow with it this time. Looks similar to the GFS.

Ya, the Hawks played the Edmonton Oilers today on WGN.  It was a late starting game at 9:00mpm and they won big 7-1.

 

Speaking of the 00z Euro...it has a nice defo band hanging back...puts us in the sweet spot.

 

Gary Lezak mentioned this system would go farther SE bc of the LRC.  Euro may be onto something now.

[Money]

So euro has caved

 

Wonder what the offices are thinking now

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Ya, the Hawks played the Edmonton Oilers today on WGN.  It was a late starting game at 9:00mpm and they won big 7-1.

 

Speaking of the 00z Euro...it has a nice defo band hanging back...puts us in the sweet spot.

 

Gary Lezak mentioned this system would go farther SE bc of the LRC.  Euro may be onto something now.

 

The LRC has nothing to do with individual low tracks, it more or less sets a pattern I believe, hence it's impossible to know how far SE, if any, an individual system will go vs the last time it tracked through via the LRC.

[Madtown]

Just a forecasters nightmare

[WildWisconsinWeather]

So euro has caved

 

Wonder what the offices are thinking now

 

Still like my 1-4", may up it to 2-5" if this stays in place.

[Money]

Just a forecasters nightmare

 

Yup. It's all over the place and we are within 36-48 hours. Phasing systems usually give the models the most time out of anything so it's not surprising. 

[Madtown]

Now that most models have some defo band any possibilities it gets out of hand with moisture?

[Tom]

The LRC has nothing to do with individual low tracks, it more or less sets a pattern I believe, hence it's impossible to know how far SE, if any, an individual system will go vs the last time it tracked through via the LRC.

The LRC could provide important clues where the storm can track.  Back on Oct 11th a cut-off low formed in the southern Plains, eject out into the Midwest and tracked thru S IL.  This may be a reason why the defo band on the Euro is farther south than any of the other models.  Just saying.

[Geos]

Interesting turn of events tonight. Didn't expect the EURO to look like the GFS tonight.

 

 

GGEM sniffed something like this out a few days ago, when the other models didn't show the snow very far south. If this comes true above, it's going to be a rough rush hour Monday PM with wind and snowy roads.

[gosaints]

Model mayhem. Should have a better idea by 12z runs. One would obviously side with the euro/gfs based on track record