11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System

[Money]

Hi-res NAM through HR 30 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/12/nam-hires_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Scott26]

12Z 4km NAM definitely a tinge south with the snow placement than the 12km is. I will post total snowfall in a bit.

[Tom]

12Z NAM...warning snows, crazy...there may be some convective activity in this defo band.

[Money]

12Z NAM...warning snows, crazy...there may be some convective activity in this defo band.

 

N.IL/S.WI is in a good spot for this. I'll still stick with my 3-6 call for most of us though. Not willing to go as high as the NAM shows in some spots. 

[Tom]

N.IL/S.WI is in a good spot for this. I'll still stick with my 3-6 call for most of us though. Not willing to go as high as the NAM shows in some spots. 

Give me 2-4" and I'lll have a smile on my face.  Enough to make it a "real" white Thanksgiving this year.  Haven't seen one of those in many, many years.  Would be a nice treat.

[Tom]

12z 4km NAM...

[Scott26]

12z 4km NAM...

I would get over 5 inches. Lock it in! lol

[Money]

That's with a 10:1 ratio as well. Wouldn't be surprised we see 12-13:1 ratio towards the end of the storm which could add an inch or two to that.

[gosaints]

Man the moving parts in this storm are impressive

[Money]

RGEM HR 12

 

[Tom]

I can't wait to track this storm in Cycle 3 & 4!  January 5-6 & Feb 17-19 are marked on my calendar.

[Tom]

00z Euro Ensemble & Control...

[Money]

RGEM has come in farther south as well.

 

[Yerf]

• What's the time frame for snow hitting N IL? Late afternoon?

[CentralNebWeather]

Missed again. Nebraska dome continues its work. More tears.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Missed again. Nebraska dome continues its work. More tears.

 

Unfortunately, that can happen for a decent period of time in the Plains region as they don't have as readily available access to GOM moisture.  I believe Omaha averages in the mid 30 inch range for snowfall in winter, if they had better moisture access to their south they could average 10-20 inches more.

[Money]

Missed again. Nebraska dome continues its work. More tears.

 

There's no such thing as a "Nebraska dome"

 

Sick of hearing about it from NE posters.

[Money]

GFS with 3-5 from Chicago to MKE to Madison and LSE.

[tim the weatherman]

There's no such thing as a "Nebraska dome"

 

Sick of hearing about it from NE posters.

i have heard of a hot air dome but not too much of a nebraska dome.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

i have heard of a hot air dome but not too much of a nebraska dome.

 

Given they believe it's more of a shield or dry air dome they're not in the same realm (not to mention it's most likely bunk).

[Tom]

 

• What's the time frame for snow hitting N IL? Late afternoon?

 

Yes, approx 2pm ish...

[Madtown]

35 inch average is 10 inches a month from Dec thru Feb with some leftovers in nov. and march. I know you guys have had severe drought but it is not like you are in the rain forest or snow belt...it us the great plains

[Tom]

12z GFS....should be the first advisory type snow event for N IL/S WI and probably E IA...

[Money]

I just think it's foolish for them to talk about the "Nebraska" dome when we are barely half way through Nov and just under a month away from the "real" start of winter. There's plenty of chances to get snow down the line but in every thread it's them complaining about the "dome" and it gets old.

 

Anyways, how the RGEM look Tom?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I just think it's foolish for them to talk about the "Nebraska" dome when we are barely half way through Nov and just under a month away from the "real" start of winter. There's plenty of chances to get snow down the line but in every thread it's them complaining about the "dome" and it gets old.

 

Anyways, how the RGEM look Tom?

 

Last winter they were screwed, but before that they were not, so maybe a bit of selective memory only thinking of the previous year.  I'm guilty of it as well sometimes.

[Money]

12z NAM has the snow starting at about 18z in MSN.

 

Bufkit:

 

MSN: 7.2 IN (ratios between 13-14:1)

MKE: 7.5 IN (ratios between 13-14:1)

ORD: 2.6 IN (ratios between 11-12:1)

LSE: 1.6 IN (ratios between 11-12:1)

OSH: 3.5 IN (ratios between 9-10:1) 

[Tom]

I just think it's foolish for them to talk about the "Nebraska" dome when we are barely half way through Nov and just under a month away from the "real" start of winter. There's plenty of chances to get snow down the line but in every thread it's them complaining about the "dome" and it gets old.

 

Anyways, how the RGEM look Tom?

Actually, here it is.......

[Hawkeye]

The 12z parallel GFS is still slightly farther north with the defo band, but the trend is pretty clear.  The last strong jet streak rounding the base of the trough is diving a bit more south and swinging a little wider with each run.  The storm overall is pretty strong, but the energy is in pieces... initial rain piece with no cold air, followed by a compact hang-back defo zone that shifts around from model to model and run to run.

 

Regarding Nebraska, the farther west into the plains you go, the more you need bigger storms that wrap up quickly to get your snow.  The eastern Nebraska members don't get nickeled and dimed as much as we do, but they do get more big storms.  I'm pretty sure places like Lincoln and Omaha have had multiple 6+ inch storms since the last time I had one(4 yrs ago).

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The 12z parallel GFS is still slightly farther north with the defo band, but the trend is pretty clear.  The last strong jet streak rounding the base of the trough is diving a bit more south and swinging a little wider with each run.  The storm overall is pretty strong, but the energy is in pieces... initial rain piece with no cold air, followed by a compact hang-back defo zone that shifts around from model to model and run to run.

 

Regarding Nebraska, the farther west into the plains you go, the more you get your snow from bigger storms that wrap up quickly.  The eastern Nebraska members don't get nickeled and dimed as much as we do, but they do get more big storms.

 

On the flip side, they can go a year or two without getting any decent storms at all due to their landlocked location with not as much GOM access combined with being a tad too far south for most clippers.

[NEJeremy]

Unfortunately, that can happen for a decent period of time in the Plains region as they don't have as readily available access to GOM moisture.  I believe Omaha averages in the mid 30 inch range for snowfall in winter, if they had better moisture access to their south they could average 10-20 inches more.

 

Actually Omaha only averages about 26" of snow per year, and just like you mentioned there is a reason for that. I mentioned in an earlier post, we get only one 5"+ snowfall per year on average, so climatologically speaking we should be missing out on the majority of the snowstorms. I don't know why everyone out here keeps expecting that to change or be different. Every year we're going to see more snowstorms hit to our east/northeast of here. That doesn't mean we have a dome!

Tom and everyone else can try to say this year is going to be your year out in Nebraska, but I go into each winter not expecting much(like a normal year) and if we get dumped on, it's that much bigger of a surprise.

[Geos]

This is a pretty sweet animation that I found on AMWX.

[Money]

HRW-NMM HR 24:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_conus_024_sim_radar.gif

[Money]

HR 30

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_conus_030_sim_radar.gif

[East Dubzz]

This certainly got interesting over the past couple days..

[Money]

HRW-ARW HR 29

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_029_sim_radar.gif

[Money]

HRW-ARW HR 33

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_033_sim_radar.gif

 

HR 36

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_036_sim_radar.gif

[Geos]

The ARW starts out with a scattered radar look, but quickly intensifies as the low phases. Happening right at the end of the workday too... Offices need to start mentioning the impact on rush hour and everything.

[Money]

GGEM

 

HR 32

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112312/I_nw_r1_EST_2014112312_032.png

 

HR 35

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112312/I_nw_r1_EST_2014112312_035.png

[Tom]

Actually Omaha only averages about 26" of snow per year, and just like you mentioned there is a reason for that. I mentioned in an earlier post, we get only one 5"+ snowfall per year on average, so climatologically speaking we should be missing out on the majority of the snowstorms. I don't know why everyone out here keeps expecting that to change or be different. Every year we're going to see more snowstorms hit to our east/northeast of here. That doesn't mean we have a dome!

Tom and everyone else can try to say this year is going to be your year out in Nebraska, but I go into each winter not expecting much(like a normal year) and if we get dumped on, it's that much bigger of a surprise.

Jeremy, this year Nebraska does have an enhanced chance of seeing more snowstorms out of any other year in recent years.  This is because of the split flow jet stream that will allow systems to hit the Rockies and eject out into the Plains.  I'm not saying that your going to be in the "bullseye" because that is just not happening.  However, I do feel you will get your fair share of storm systems.  We still have 4 months of winter to go and plenty of time to get your snow.

[Money]

HR 37

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112312/I_nw_r1_EST_2014112312_037.png

 

HR 39

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014112312/I_nw_r1_EST_2014112312_039.png