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11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Money
Money

Also shows 6 -8 in of snow in western and central wi

Geos
Geos

It's not a very compact low on that model. Delays the CAA, thus it doesn't put down any snow in the eastern 2/3rds of WI.   Like the looks of the Parallel GFS.   Yeah putting Christmas lights and watc

Snowshoe
Snowshoe

Got the Christmas lights out just in time! 

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Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

it looks like most areas switch over to snow by about 18z Monday (HR 42)

 

Here is the sim radar at HR 43 and 44 for each:

 

HR 43 (ARW)

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_043_sim_radar.gif

 

HR 45

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_045_sim_radar.gif

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The defo bands with these type of systems can be rather impressive and you can get some 30dbz snowfall rates.

 

Yup. Love tracking these things. 

 

Who's staying up for the 6z NAM/SREF?

LOL, I'm crashing out right after the Euro fully loads.  I'm beat bud, been on my feet since Noon putting up Christmas lights and going from store to store.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Things are getting really exciting, but I want to finish putting up lights in the morning. So the 6z runs can wait to be seen.  :lol:

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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Still significant differences between the nam and gfs on the 6z run. Nam has a lot more snow into western Wisconsin. Both seem to be latching onto the deformation band in se Iowa into n Illinois, but placement and cutover are still in question. 3z SREF mean dropped to about 4" for Cedar Rapids with a max of 10"' where the 21z run had 3 members over 10" and an average of over 5". DVN afd said they would go with the SREF for now

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Money Proficient

Money

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GB AFD:

 

 

THE PHASING OF TWO UPPER SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE AN
INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT. THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS GIVE THE
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS AND FORECASTERS SOME OF OUR
BIGGER CHALLENGES. THIS SITUATION IS NO EXCEPTION AS THERE IS A
WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND GFS PHASE THE SYSTEMS
THE LEAST WHILE THE NAM AND GEM ARE SLOWER AND MORE PHASED. THE
NAM AND GEM ARE FINER SCALE MODELS AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
EFFECTS OF THE GREAT LAKES BETTER THAN THE OTHERS SO DOES THAT
GIVE THEM AN ADVANTAGE? MAYBE. SINCE THERE IS STILL SUCH A BIG
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WE DECIDED IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO
WAIT BEFORE ISSUING ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES OR ADVISORIES.
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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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The models I really want to keep an eye on this morning are the nam, hi res nam, sref, and rgem. They all were further nw than the gfs and euro so we'll see if they move or not. Plus they are higher resolution than the gfs and euro, which I like when we are in such close range to the storm.

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

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 MONDAY ONWARD...

 

STILL SEEING SOME NON-TRIVIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT

TO THE DETAILS MONDAY...LIKELY DUE TO THEIR TENDENCY TO STRUGGLE

WITH PHASING SYSTEMS. ALL GUIDANCE SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS

THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG

WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE BIGGEST

DIFFERENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA IS AN INCREASING LARGE CAMP

OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM

SHORTWAVE LAGGING BEHIND AND ENHANCING ASCENT IN THE DEFORMATION

ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THIS POINT

THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF/PARALLEL

13KM GFS ALL SHOWING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE AREA.

THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND KNOWN ISSUES GUIDANCE HAS

WITH PHASING SYSTEMS LEADS TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BUT HAVE

BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME AND CARRIED A COUPLE

INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

 

IF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF QPF ENDS UP BEING IN THE BALL PARK OF WHAT

HAPPENS THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH

SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG

WINDS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON`T FAVOR HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIO SNOWFALL WITH

DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER WARMER THAN -10C...RATHER LARGER AGGREGATE

FLAKES WOULD BE FAVORED WITH A WETTER SNOW AND LOWER VSBYS. WILL

BEGIN TO ADVERTISE THIS THREAT IN THE HWO BUT FAR TOO EARLY TO

CONSIDER ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

 

IZZI

Izzi at NWS Chicago is going with several inches possible and calls this a potential "high impact event."

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