11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System

[Geos]

GFS has this storm down to 966mb! If anything this storm will be impressive its very low pressure.

 

 

Complete with some snow.

 

[Money]

Also shows 6 -8 in of snow in western and central wi

[Money]

GFS parallel has a lot of wrap around snow

[Geos]

Liking the chances of snow on Monday a bit better.

Hopefully the ground doesn't warm up much this weekend.

 

 

Total moisture.

 

[Money]

Geos is that the regular gfs or parallel? Ukie has a ton of wrap around moisture

[Money]

UKMET:

 

HR 60:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

 

HR 72:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Money]

Precip:

 

HR 72:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Tom]

Geos is that the regular gfs or parallel? Ukie has a ton of wrap around moisture

GFS Parallel...

[Money]

RGEM at HR 48 has the low down to 987 in S.IL

 

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

[Money]

So GGEM/GFS/P. GFS all show some places in WI getting 6+ from this and most areas at least receiving 3-5.

 

Interesting trends tonight. 

[Tom]

If that southern piece can get strong enough to pull the northern piece and the cold air down faster with a quicker phase, this could get real interesting...

[Money]

If that southern piece can get strong enough to pull the northern piece and the cold air down faster with a quicker phase, this could get real interesting...

 

Even as is, it shows quite a bit of snow. Winds should be pretty gusty on the backside as well. 

[Tom]

Even as is, it shows quite a bit of snow. Winds should be pretty gusty on the backside as well. 

Better than nothing for sure...

[Money]

I still wanna see the Euro get on board before getting too excited 

[Geos]

Geos is that the regular gfs or parallel? Ukie has a ton of wrap around moisture.

 

Parallel.

 

CMC maps.

 

 

 

 

[Money]

SREF Plumes are on the increase as well across most areas.

[Geos]

I would think with the strong winds and the intensity of this low, that CAA would act quickly. Monday might be quite interesting with wind and snow.

[Geos]

SREF Plumes are on the increase as well across most areas.

 

Some plumes in SE WI are approaching 6".

[Money]

Some plumes in SE WI are approaching 6".

 

Yup. Highest I've seen is up in E/C WI towards GB where some are showing 10+ 

[Money]

These are the type of storms that give forecasters and models the hardest time. Something to watch for as we get closer (especially with all of this depending on phasing) 

[Tom]

00z Euro finally starting to show the backside snow...

[Money]

Nice just need the nam to get on board

[Geos]

EURO coming along I would say.

 

 

 

 

[gosaints]

Whoa was away from a computer. First model I looked at was 6z nam. Clownage. Not likely but fun to look at

[Money]

6z nam showing 16-20 in amounts lol

[bud2380]

Hi res nam also showing a strong deformation band, but further southeast. This could get interesting.

[gosaints]

Pretty much every model has it now. Euro furthest east. Nam off in left field per usual . gfs seems to be in between

[Money]

LSE AFD:

 

OLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. DEFORMATION
AXIS SNOW BAND WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW ON MONDAY GENERALLY RESULTING IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. NORTHWEST WIND WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...POSSIBLY CREATING SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

 

MKE:

 

THE STRONGER LOW IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAS CHANGED THE PICTURE
QUITE A BIT FOR MONDAY...AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY PER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS...WITH THE LOW HAVING JUST DROPPED ROUGHLY 20 MB OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. COLD AIR WILL BE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE DEFORMATION SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
MODELS AND NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL SETTLE ON THIS...ONLY HAVE IN
2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW MOST PLACES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS THERE IF THIS SITUATION PANS OUT.

 

GB:

 

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AHEAD OF THE LOW...INCREASING
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QG FORCING SUPPORTS A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.
PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL LATE WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND COULD CHANGE PRECIP TO A MIX OR ALL
SNOW. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO
ONTARIO. POTENTIAL IS IMPROVING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE ON
MONDAY...THOUGH ITS STILL RATHER DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON
POSSIBLE ACCUMS SINCE THE DETAILS REMAIN ELUSIVE. BUT IF TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SOLUTION...A 1-3 OR 2-4 INCH EVENT IS
POSSIBLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE WITH ANY
SNOWFALL SINCE GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

[Money]

SREF Plumes took a huge jump again

 

LSE:

 

Mean: 6.06

High: 20.00

Low: 0.06

 

10 6+

 

MKE:

 

Mean: 3.09

High: 6.86

Low: 0.00

 

ORD:

 

Mean: 3.29

High: 8.33

Low: 0.00

 

8 (4+)

 

OSH:

 

Mean: 4.32

High: 9.49

Low: 0.09

 

10 (5+) 

[gosaints]

Lil max sref at krst 30

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Wow, what a change the recent models are showing.  I don't know why I gave up on this storm a couple days ago.

[Money]

12z NAM HR 36: 992.5 L just NW of STL 

[Money]

12z NAM HR 36: 992.5 L just NW of STL 

 

Down to about 984 just S. of Milwaukee at HR 45. 8 MB drop in 9 hours. 

[Money]

W. WI getting hit hard at HR 48 with already 3-4 inches near Madison/LSE. 

[gosaints]

Imagine what the nam would show if it bombed out

[Money]

Yeah 6z the NAM phased it way sooner in E. WI or so and it caused it to sit and just bomb out hence the large amounts. 12z isn't nearly as strong but still shows 4-8 inches of snow from SW WI NE into GB etc Nearly all of Eastern WI (from Oshkosh/Appleton up) get 6+ this run. 

[gosaints]

Yep western fringe here inch or two that run.

[Madtown]

Madison good or on the eastern fringe?

[gosaints]

Madtown ground zero this run