11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System

[Tom]

00z Euro showing nada...

[Snowshoe]

Heavy snow on the 18Z NAM. Hope this continues.

[Geos]

Don't have time at the moment to post the 6z NAM, but it continues the snow look - similar areas as above^. Maybe a little further east too.

[gosaints]

Nice to see the deform snows on a couple models.  Who knows if it will really happen, and if it does good luck pinning down where it happens

[gosaints]

NAM back to pretty lame

[GDR]

I didn't think the GGEM was very reliable this far out.

[gosaints]

I didn't think the GGEM was very reliable this far out.

Its never that reliable.  At this time frame the NAM isnt either.  So pretty much grasping at straws.  

[Money]

A lot of the 6z GFS ensembles show the same thing

[gosaints]

A lot of the 6z GFS ensembles show the same thing

ya definetly on the table, but thread the needle

[Money]

HR 78:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f78.gif

 

HR 84

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f84.gif

[Money]

12z GFS shows about a 16 MB drop in 12 hours.

[Money]

12z GFS showing more backside snow with 6+ in northern WI and 2-5 across MN/W.WI 

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_12.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_13.png

[Money]

GFS 0z HR 96

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112100/gfs_asnow_us_17.png

 

 

12z GFS HR 84

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_asnow_us_15.png

[Money]

Parallel GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

[Money]

Parallel GFS Snowfall:

 

0z HR 102:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112100/gfsp_asnow_us_18.png

 

12z HR 90:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014112112/gfsp_asnow_us_16.png

[gosaints]

LOL at the GGEM

[Money]

Still some huge differences in strength. GGEM at HR 72 is 987. GFS at HR 72 is 975 and just a bit more north. NAM at HR 72: 983 in about the same spot as GFS.

[gosaints]

Still some huge differences in strength. GGEM at HR 72 is 987. GFS at HR 72 is 975 and just a bit more north. NAM at HR 72: 983 in about the same spot as GFS.

Still some curveballs with this thing I believe. The southern vort diving into mexico wont help models.  You have the UKIE?

[Money]

Still some curveballs with this thing I believe. The southern vort diving into mexico wont help models.  You have the UKIE?

 

I do but. It usually doesn't come out until 10:40 CDT or so, but the last couple days it's been all over the place. 

 

Here was 0z last night at HR 96

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

[Money]

This is all going to come down to when the phasing happens. Stronger storm=more snow like Tom has been saying the last few days.

 

Check out the differences in the northern stream system on the 12z GFS compared to 0z GFS and you can easily tell why it's so much stronger.

 

0z HR 60

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_10.png

 

12z HR 48

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_8.png

0z run had it up in S. Canada while 12z had it SE into SE ND. It might not seem like a lot, but you can tell it phases earlier and hence how strong it gets later in the run.

[Money]

Here is HR 60:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_10.png

HR 66:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014112112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

Phase is complete and drops nearly 16 MB in 12 hours. 

[Money]

Looking at the GGEM ensembles, it looks like the OP is pretty weak in terms of what the other models are showing. I count at least 5 or 6 that get it down into the 960's at HR 84 while most of the others are in the low 970's

 

[Niko]

I am getting AM Ice. YUCK!!!!      Thankfully, all that will change to a nice rainfall later Saturday w/ milder temps and Sunday into Mon a nice, mild rainstorm is on the cards. Cold and dry weather follows for the remainder of the week and into the weekend, nothing too brutal like we have been experiencing, just colder w/ t highs in the 20s to near 30 and lows in the lower 20s. 

[Money]

HR 72:

 

 

[Tom]

I love to see systems go through bombogenesis....

[gosaints]

I love to see systems go through bombogenesis....

yep. and no matter what the models say when bombing occurs is always in question

[Money]

I love to see systems go through bombogenesis....

 

Models usually tend to underestimate strength when it comes to phasing storms etc. Something to also think about if this thing phases and bombs out. 

[Tom]

yep. and no matter what the models say when bombing occurs is always in question

 

Models usually tend to underestimate strength when it comes to phasing storms etc. Something to also think about if this thing phases and bombs out. 

The models also may underdo the amount of cold it can generate...so the back side snows showing up now in the modeling is a hint for what may come.  Just want to see the Euro show this because it has been non existent.

[Money]

The models also may underdo the amount of cold it can generate...so the back side snows showing up now in the modeling is a hint for what may come.  Just want to see the Euro show this because it has been non existent.

 

Yup. It's nice to see the GGEM/GFS/GFS P/6z NAM showing this as well. Still nearly 3 days out and a lot can change considering it isn't sampled, but I think it's a good bet that at least some snow will fall on the backside of the storm. 

[Money]

12z euro is pretty weak in terms of strength compared to GFS. 982 at HR 72

[bud2380]

Anyone got the euro? I'm getting rid of accuweather pro. For 2 weeks now the models, especially the euro, are not updating timely or in full. Total waste of money. The past 3 years I've had it and it's worked great. No longer the case

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f72.gif

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f78.gif

[Grizzcoat]

Anyone got the euro? I'm getting rid of accuweather pro. For 2 weeks now the models, especially the euro, are not updating timely or in full. Total waste of money. The past 3 years I've had it and it's worked great. No longer the case

Bud-- it's becuz they changed the amount of info iyou can get as well has location in lat/lon (usually for your current loc- but you can now type in any location with lat/lon) -- the downfalls is for the EURO you must wait until the  model has completed its run. For the  GFS -- use GFS rapid. The nice thing is that you can  go back and check  previous runs of the model with data output -- ie. 6z or 12Z or 18Z compared to 00Z).

[Money]

Grizz do you have the euro snow maps by any chance?

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing barely anything...

[GDR]

The pieces just aren't falling together

[james1976]

I like how almost everyone in here is in a Freezing Rain Advisory but no one has mentioned one word about it. Lol. I'm not that excited about it either.

[Geos]

Far as the freezing rain goes, I hope it doesn't last too far into the day tomorrow. I want to put Christmas lights up before the more substantial rain moves in! haha.

 

There seems to be some consensus of some wrap around or secondary low snows next Monday. Sometimes these little waves and leftover pieces of energy can give you a surprise ~ if the cold air wraps in quick enough.