Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Geos]

a totally different set up out here, but we were supposed to be getting snow today and instead it's 35 and another cold rainy day. have had over 3/4" of rain here since yesterday. bah humbug!!

 

I know how that is. It was like that yesterday here. Of course snow was never really in the forecast then.

[clintbeed1993]

a totally different set up out here, but we were supposed to be getting snow today and instead it's 35 and another cold rainy day. have had over 3/4" of rain here since yesterday. bah humbug!!

 

We just stink something awful over here.  Chicago people definitely can't complain after they get a nice snow on Christmas Eve.

[tim the weatherman]

lot right now is having a conference call at 2:30pm this afternoon.

[BigDizBliz420]

anyone else think chicago has thundersnow tomorrow?

[Tony]

Doh!  12z Euro...King Euro the outlier???

From what I can recall from last years modeling for the Euro, it wasn't very good in the beginning of winter but gradually got better as winter went on. Suffice it to say that many of our snow producers were clippers and from what I have gathered is that Euro was not the best in picking up these types of waves.

[Tony]

anyone else think chicago has thundersnow tomorrow?

Depends on how dynamic this system gets. Looking downstream you can tell it is really getting its act together.

[Geos]

Thundersnow mentioned on AMwx, that the reason the EURO is acting the way it is, is because it doesn't close the low off aloft and the system is more positively tilted.

 

A pretty cool loop of the storm off the WRF-NMM.

 

 

Looks like a early afternoon changeover if I'm catching the right time stamp. 

[tim the weatherman]

there is a slight shift east.

[Tony]

there is a slight shift east.

In what??

[BigDizBliz420]

NAM is way east

[GDR]

I think we need to enjoy this snow because the gfs is boring through the 9th of January.

[GDR]

NAM is way east

holy smokes that model sucks! I'm throwing that out the crapper!

[Scott26]

Relax still a great run for eastern illinois

[tim the weatherman]

there is a member on accuweather fourms that those in westren michigan doing the dance at this rate a 200 mile shift east isn't out of the question.

[Geos]

 

I wouldn't take the shift too hard.

 

Advisories and Watch just issued by the Romeoville Office.

[Tony]

there is a member on accuweather fourms that those in westren michigan doing the dance at this rate a 300 mile shift east isn't out of the question.

Whoever said that is pulling somebody's leg. Now I can see western MI getting in on the action but that is about it.

[tim the weatherman]

lot just iisued a winter storm watch for the counties of cook,dupage,kane,kendall,grundy,will,kankakee il and lake in until 9 pm cst for snow  accumlations 3 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts with the narrow snow band.

[Scott26]

Look like I'm teetering on the edge up here in Lake county. The 18Z NAM OP would still be a pretty good hit for me, but hi-res I'm a bit too North. All I was really expecting anyways is a couple of inches so I wouldn't care that much either way.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014122318/namconus_apcpn_us_12.png

 

I wouldn't take the shift too hard.

 

Advisories and Watch just issued by the Romeoville Office.

 

Isn't some of that taint from the current drizzle/light rain?

[Geos]

Look like I'm teetering on the edge up here in Lake county. The 18Z NAM OP would still be a pretty good hit for me, but hi-res I'm a bit too North. All I was really expecting anyways is a couple of inches so I wouldn't care that much either way.

 

I find it odd that Kane County has a watch, but yet Lake County does not. With the way the system is orientated I would expect more snow in our county vs. west of the Fox River.

[gosaints]

Drastic cut in snow and both nam models. I have no idea if it means anything. I am just saying

[Yerf]

lot just iisued a winter storm watch for the counties of cook,dupage,kane,kendall,grundy,will,kankakee il and lake in until 9 pm cst for snow  accumlations 3 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts with the narrow snow band.

WRF is spitting out 6-7 inches total accumulation for these counties

[Geos]

Isn't some of that taint from the current drizzle/light rain?

 

Nothing falling from the sky here right now. I do notice it is at Waukesha airport. It takes a long time for drizzle to add up to anything appreciable.

[Maxim]

lot right now is having a conference call at 2:30pm this afternoon.

And they all agreed that the EURO was an outlier

[BigDizBliz420]

heard the SREF are over 6 inches for Chicago now, wow!

[Tony]

Drastic cut in snow and both nam models. I have no idea if it means anything. I am just saying

Will have to compare it to the other hi-res models when they update to see if nam is whacky or onto something.

[Scott26]

I find it odd that Kane County has a watch, but yet Lake County does not. With the way the system is orientated I would expect more snow in our county vs. west of the Fox River.

I agree... Take a look at the precip on the 12km NAM vs. 4km NAM. Lets hope the slightly more NW orientation of the defo band verifies so we can get in on the heavier snow totals as well.

[Maxim]

I'm still not ruling out a possible last minute shift to the NW. Have seen it happen before in rapidly deepening systems such as this one.

[Scott26]

I'm still not ruling out a possible last minute shift to the NW. Have seen it happen before in rapidly deepening systems such as this one.

I definitely agree with you. The track is pretty much set, but even a touch to the NW and we would be right back into the heaviest totals.

[LegitWebos7]

I'm still not ruling out a possible last minute shift to the NW. Have seen it happen before in rapidly deepening systems such as this one.

 

it's trending east... i'd say people in the western tier of watch counties on west are almost out of the running for anything significant

[tim the weatherman]

Sref Plumes Mean

Chicago 6.1" (the winner)
Bloomington 5"
Peoria 3.2"
Decatur 3.3"
Champaign 3.3"
Springfield 3.1"
Lafayette IN 1.5"
St Louis MO 1"

[Geos]

With a dynamic system like this the deformation band pivot point could end up near the guidance really early today or what it is now. Tough to say the exact locations to get 4, 5, or 6".

 

A new Canadian model added to WxBell.

 

 

I'm up to 6" on the SREF plumes now. Was at 4.1" on the 9z run.

[Tom]

A 20 mile wobble east or west is not out of the question.  I could see it going NW rather than NE when a system begins to mature during the process of cyclogenesis.  Can you imagine if this storm would be going neg tilt from the deep south and wrapping those Tornadic Thunderstorms into the cold sector???  Oh my would that be a pretty sight to see.  Maybe the next time around this will be the case.

[Scott26]

 Here is a tidbit from NWS IWX's forecast discussion. This forecaster mentions surface analysis shows this system is stronger than progged and rapid cyclogenesis may favor a further west solution. Just something to keep a eye on...

 

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW
POSITION. 12Z GEM/GFS/EURO ALL BRING THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN FORT
WAYNE AND LIMA NEAR 18Z WEDNESDAY. 12Z NAM IS SLOWER AND THE
FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK THROUGH COLUMBIA
CITY NEAR 00Z. PREFER THIS WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE OTHERS DESPITE
THE RECENT EASTWARD TREND OF THE MODELS. ACTUALLY WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE LOW DEEPEN A BIT MORE THAN MODELED (PERHAPS
985MB) WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS IS ALREADY
ANALYZING A 998MB CLOSED CONTOUR AT THE SURFACE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA WHICH IS A FEW MB DEEPER THAN ANY 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATED
AT 18Z. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION BLOW UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST TODAY TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY INDICATIONS
THAT LATENT HEAT RELEASE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW MAY AID IN
INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO TELL WHAT
EFFECT...IF ANY...IT MAY HAVE. IF THE WESTERN TRACK DOES PROVE TO BE
THE WINNER...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE EASTERN 1/3RD
OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 00Z AS THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF THE
WIND INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION.

 

 

[Tony]

Very good point brought up in that afd. Have seen this happen with last minute nw shifts with these setups.

[tim the weatherman]

 Here is a tidbit from NWS IWX's forecast discussion. This forecaster mentions surface analysis shows this system is stronger than progged and rapid cyclogenesis may favor a further west solution. Just something to keep a eye on...

this could boost the totals like we though.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ilx/wx/File.png

[Sciascia]

I know we're nowcasting & hi-res model watching, but for model discussion sake, I'll point out the GFS shows a non event for majority of the Great Lakes area.

[Maxim]

I know we're nowcasting & hi-res model watching, but for model discussion sake, I'll point out the GFS shows a non event for majority of the Great Lakes area.

What's the point of posting what the GFS is showing? Do you really buy what it's showing? 

[Sciascia]

What's the point of posting what the GFS is showing? Do you really buy what it's showing?

No, but people posted the Euro & the Nam. Figured when things come out, we post what they show. Easy for anyone to ignore while we wait for new Hi-Res stuff to come out.