January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Glad to see that the warmest day is Saturday. Planning on being outside that day for awhile.

 

LES only added up to 0.2" last night. On and off snow showers today were just light. 

 

FYI: tomorrow is the GFS' last day!

[Niko]

It going to be brutal here tonight. My temps are going to drop in the low -10's. The snowpack will help temps dive that low. There is around 5inches of snow on the ground now. Today was a true January, winter day with deep blue skies, frigid temps (12F high of the day) and a healthy snowpack.

[Tom]

Temps tanking under arctic HP, calm winds, clear skies, fresh snow cover....brrrrr!  Rochelle, IL already down to -9F, ORD down to 6F from 16F 2.5 hours ago.  Prob tack on another sub-zero night.

[Geos]

Coldest location will definitely be inland tonight.

Was down to 5°, but then the wind kicked up. Back up to 9°.

[Tom]

I'd say by the looks of these charts, Blocking will be developing by next weekend.  It's no wonder temps are trending colder next weekend near the Lakes.  Hopefully that system mid next week can get energized with blocking and cold air in place.

[Tom]

From Skilling:

 

It's interesting that at the same time last year there was less ice coverage over the Great Lakes.  

[Tom]

Last week I mentioned the GFS was hinting at a weak storm developing near Japan, now in recent days it is beginning to show a wound up system to hit southern Japan on the 14th/15th.  This would correlate with the storm showing up in the central CONUS mid next week.  Lets see if the 00z Euro/GGEM continue to show this system.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...there ya go...nice bowling ball low...

[winterfreak]

Yawn wagons north. Still waiting for GFS to show something significant.

[Tom]

Yawn wagons north. Still waiting for GFS to show something significant.

Shoulda went up to Traverse City, MI when you had the chance...

[james1976]

GFS no show for next 2 weeks.

[Tom]

Remember the 00z 12th Euro run of the 500mb maps I posted a couple days ago that had the trough hanging back in the 4 corners???  Now look at last nights run, big difference, right???  Model corrected farther east as expected and more in line with what a -AO/-NAO pattern looks like in the lower 48.

 

850's look like this Day 9, 13, and 15....big time cold on the way and probably some big snows for some as well in this type of pattern.

[gosaints]

East coaster after east coaster on the GFS

[GDR]

Wow that's looking impressive for the east coast. At least will be cold.

[Tom]

12z GGEM painting a MUCH different scenario and showing a major Lower Lakes Cutter...

[NEJeremy]

as of the 12Z runs today, the GFS should be officially upgraded. don't like the look of what the new one is showing, especially if it is supposed to be more accurate

[Tom]

Ridiculous cold showing up for the month of February...once this pattern locks in, its got some legs....get ready to hunker down as the worst part of this Winter season is about to take hold.

 

CFSv2 seeing the LRC's "cold phase" in mid/late February...if we have the blocking around, this is going to get serious.

[Jaycee]

This brief surge of warm air feels incredible. Reminds me of Spring. I just wish it wasn't so ugly outside with everything being so brown and such. I honestly will trade the lack of snow for an active sever weather season. The feeling of seeing those monstrous supercells about to roll in is just incredible imo. I love blizzards, but man, looking at the GFS, it's just awful. Each and every run. I wish this forum wouldn't die down so much for the spring/summer time. That seems to be the only time Nebraska actually gets most of the action. I did like the Canadian/EURO. If we can just get some d*** blocking for once, maybe we can get a monster to track! February will be interesting I think.

[Tony]

as of the 12Z runs today, the GFS should be officially upgraded. don't like the look of what the new one is showing, especially if it is supposed to be more accurate

To be honest, I really did not look at it that often except for the last couple smaller systems we had and from what I can remember(which sometimes is not much) it wasn't that reliable.

 

I know the regular GFS did fairly well as did the Canadian.

[gosaints]

Once we get a major cutter to show up inside 120 hours then I think people would be able to latch on to your excitement.

[Maxim]

Yeah, I don't think anyone here gets very excited about a dry pattern with extreme cold in the heart of winter.

[GDR]

12z GGEM painting a MUCH different scenario and showing a major Lower Lakes Cutter...

i wouldn't get too excited yet because look at how much that model has moved already.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah, I don't think anyone here gets very excited about a dry pattern with extreme cold in the heart of winter.

Unless your name is Tom

[Tom]

Unless your name is Tom

I get excited about anything to do with Snow/Cold/Storm Systems, etc in the Winter months.  With cold comes snow and everybody will be happy once it arrives.  'Nuff said on that. BTW, there were many doubters here that winter wasn't coming or it was letting go or it was going to be a bust.  I, personally, called the Blocking that would re-develop that wasn't present and caused a "strung out" pattern.  The pattern lining up now is ripe to brew some huge systems.  Not sure yet where they line up, but over the next 2-3 weeks, we are going into an all out Winter pattern.  If your a fan of the weather and admire what nature can do as a "whole", then your going to experience something that doesn't happen to often in our lifetimes.  When all sudden done, this Winter will be a memorable one and may top the ranks for alot of this nation.

[gosaints]

So far this winter has been a broken record

[winterfreak]

To me it isn't winter without modest snow. So for me, no, winter has not really arrived save for a two inch slop fest in December. We'll see. Yes Tom lol, I should have gone but life's priorities and what not.

[Tom]

So far this winter has been a broken record

Ok...you still have snow on the ground, right???  Enjoy it, more is on the way...be glad you don't live in SE NE or the southern Plains.

[Tom]

To me it isn't winter without modest snow. So for me, no, winter has not really arrived save for a two inch slop fest in December. We'll see. Yes Tom lol, I should have gone but life's priorities and what not.

Even though Gary Lezak disagreed with Blocking developing, its coming....I do think you will get a storm or two before Winter is over.  Heck, if this Blocking pattern lasts into March, that is when you can cash in on some big storms.

[Tom]

JMA seeing the mid week storm system ejecting out of the Rockies Wed/Thu....

[gosaints]

Ok...you still have snow on the ground, right???  Enjoy it, more is on the way...be glad you don't live in SE NE or the southern Plains.

Of course I have snow on the ground that wont change I wouldnt think.  Some dont get a kick out of just looking at the snow on the ground and seeing the temperature plummet.  Some weather enthusiasts like to see snow fall from a real winter storm.  

 

As for next weeks storm... Obviously see it to believe it.  The JMA!

[Tom]

Of course I have snow on the ground that wont change I wouldnt think.  Some dont get a kick out of just looking at the snow on the ground and seeing the temperature plummet.  Some weather enthusiasts like to see snow fall from a real winter storm.  

 

As for next weeks storm... Obviously see it to believe it.  The JMA!

Contrary to popular belief, I, to, would rather see heavy snow falling from the Heavens above.  Nature rarely gives "everyone" everything they want.  Maybe, just maybe, next week's system could lay down a heavy snow band from the Rockies into the Lakes.

 

The JMA model does very well in medium/long range forecasting and I have been following this model over the last month or so and it has done well with the pattern this year.

[Snowshoe]

I appreciate the enthusiasm. However, I have a big fundraising event in two weeks that depends on having plenty of snow on the ground. Seeing storm after storm and model run after model run fizzle to nothing is wearing down my enthusiasm. I had to shovel the backyard just to have a big enough snow hill for the kids to play on. That defines a crummy winter in my book.

 

A quick run of the NOMADS Ensemble Probability Tool shows no more than a 5% chance of seeing measurable snow through Hr384

                       NOMADS Ensemble Probability Tool
==============================================================================
Probability that the following event will occur:
   where the highest temperature is less than 2 degrees c.
   AND
   where the precipitation is greater than 0.1 in/6hr.
   AND
   where the 850 mb Temperature is less than 0c.
   
At the location:
   Wisconsin Rapids, Alexander Field South Wood County Airport, WI, United States (44-21-33N, 089-50-13W)

For the GENS model run at the given time:
   Jan 14, 2015 06z
==============================================================================

Fcst Hr. |Date                 | Prob.% | Value Variance (native units the conditions listed above, in order)
006       Jan 14, 2015 12z       0%     1.1500    0.0000    1.3000
012       Jan 14, 2015 18z       0%     0.7500    0.0000    1.4000
018       Jan 15, 2015 00z       0%     0.8900    0.0000    1.3000
024       Jan 15, 2015 06z       0%     1.2500    0.0000    1.0000
030       Jan 15, 2015 12z       0%     1.5000    0.0000    1.5000
036       Jan 15, 2015 18z       0%     1.4500    0.0000    2.3000
042       Jan 16, 2015 00z       0%     1.8100    0.0000    9.4000
048       Jan 16, 2015 06z       0%     1.8500    0.0000    16.8000
054       Jan 16, 2015 12z       0%     10.1300    0.0000    16.9000
060       Jan 16, 2015 18z       0%     12.2500    0.0000    15.9000
066       Jan 17, 2015 00z       0%     12.9500    0.0000    10.7000
072       Jan 17, 2015 06z       0%     12.6000    0.0000    13.5000
078       Jan 17, 2015 12z       0%     10.4900    0.0000    12.6000
084       Jan 17, 2015 18z       0%     3.5500    0.0002    13.0000
090       Jan 18, 2015 00z       5%     4.5900    0.0002    9.6000
096       Jan 18, 2015 06z       5%     6.3900    0.0001    8.9000
102       Jan 18, 2015 12z       0%     8.7500    0.0000    10.2000
108       Jan 18, 2015 18z       0%     6.9500    0.0000    10.5000
114       Jan 19, 2015 00z       0%     6.5000    0.0000    13.5000
120       Jan 19, 2015 06z       0%     9.7100    0.0001    19.7000
126       Jan 19, 2015 12z       0%     14.6400    0.0000    22.9000
132       Jan 19, 2015 18z       0%     19.5500    0.0001    22.4000
138       Jan 20, 2015 00z       0%     19.8600    0.0001    17.6000
144       Jan 20, 2015 06z       5%     21.0600    0.0001    15.2000
150       Jan 20, 2015 12z       0%     20.4000    0.0001    12.1000
156       Jan 20, 2015 18z       5%     14.8500    0.0001    13.6000
162       Jan 21, 2015 00z       0%     13.7000    0.0000    9.5000
168       Jan 21, 2015 06z       0%     10.9900    0.0002    11.8000
174       Jan 21, 2015 12z       5%     10.0500    0.0001    11.1000
180       Jan 21, 2015 18z       0%     13.4000    0.0000    10.9000
186       Jan 22, 2015 00z       0%     13.1500    0.0000    10.4000
192       Jan 22, 2015 06z       0%     14.4100    0.0000    10.3000
198       Jan 22, 2015 12z       0%     14.2800    0.0001    11.4000
204       Jan 22, 2015 18z       0%     12.4900    0.0000    11.9000
210       Jan 23, 2015 00z       0%     12.5000    0.0001    15.1000
216       Jan 23, 2015 06z       0%     16.5000    0.0001    15.7000
222       Jan 23, 2015 12z       0%     19.0200    0.0000    20.2000
228       Jan 23, 2015 18z       0%     14.6200    0.0000    21.2000
234       Jan 24, 2015 00z       0%     13.8200    0.0000    18.9000
240       Jan 24, 2015 06z       0%     17.3100    0.0001    13.6000
246       Jan 24, 2015 12z       0%     19.3000    0.0001    11.3000
252       Jan 24, 2015 18z       0%     12.6900    0.0000    9.8000
258       Jan 25, 2015 00z       0%     11.1000    0.0001    12.8000
264       Jan 25, 2015 06z       0%     14.8100    0.0000    16.6000
270       Jan 25, 2015 12z       0%     17.7100    0.0001    19.6000
276       Jan 25, 2015 18z       0%     16.9000    0.0001    23.0000
282       Jan 26, 2015 00z       0%     20.9800    0.0000    27.1000
288       Jan 26, 2015 06z       0%     21.9100    0.0000    26.2000
294       Jan 26, 2015 12z       0%     22.3000    0.0000    25.1000
300       Jan 26, 2015 18z       0%     24.2200    0.0001    20.8000
306       Jan 27, 2015 00z       0%     20.6200    0.0000    20.8000
312       Jan 27, 2015 06z       0%     21.4000    0.0000    23.0000
318       Jan 27, 2015 12z       0%     22.3400    0.0000    20.4000
324       Jan 27, 2015 18z       0%     21.6500    0.0001    16.8000
330       Jan 28, 2015 00z       0%     19.1400    0.0001    19.8000
336       Jan 28, 2015 06z       0%     18.1900    0.0002    21.4000
342       Jan 28, 2015 12z       5%     21.6900    0.0001    21.1000
348       Jan 28, 2015 18z       0%     20.7000    0.0001    29.1000
354       Jan 29, 2015 00z       0%     18.5800    0.0001    28.7000
360       Jan 29, 2015 06z       0%     21.6100    0.0002    29.6000
366       Jan 29, 2015 12z       5%     26.9900    0.0002    25.7000
372       Jan 29, 2015 18z       5%     28.9000    0.0001    26.5000
378       Jan 30, 2015 00z       0%     27.3000    0.0001    23.8000
384       Jan 30, 2015 06z       0%     26.2300    0.0004    24.8000

[james1976]

Euro must be a dud since no one is talking about it....

[Tom]

Euro must be a dud since no one is talking about it....

It's AO forecast dipped to -4 and had the storm all the way down into the GOM...whacky run for sure...tons of suppression that run.

 

@Snowshoe, I don't think the Upper Midwest/Lakes are going to be in a great location to see big storms especially if the AO/NAO dip negative.  That usually drives the storm track farther south.

[Tony]

Maps for the clipper next week.

[Tom]

Heart of the cold and a possible PV discharge into the Lakes late month????  Coldest air of the season coming, especially if there is a nice snow cover.

[Snowshoe]

Heart of the cold and a possible PV discharge into the Lakes late month????  Coldest air of the season coming, especially if there is a nice snow cover.

 

Hopefully that setup would clipper us to death. Best hope appears to be over performing clippers. I had high hopes that a SE ridge would have really flexed it's muscles. No such luck.

[Tony]

Sorry, I couldn't resist

[Niko]

Sorry, I couldn't resist

I'll take that please. That's near a foot+ for me!   

[Niko]

Brutal last night. It dipped down to -7F and if it weren't for those darn clouds that rolled on in this morning, temps would have gotten colder. Also, a few snowshowers were reported this morning .

The warm-up coming this weekend does not look that impressive. Mid 30's does it for me and that is considered above normal. Normal is 28F. They had me for upper 30s, but it trended colder. Also, snow chances increase for my area starting Sunday, as the clipper makes its way here.