January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Maxim]

WOW.....a lot frustration going on in here. Everyone just take a deep breathe and relax. I know this winter is a little annoying for some on here, or for most. I am sure a big storm will come outta nowhere and buried you all with good snow accumulations at some point of time this winter, especially those people in Nebraska who are suffering. We still have plenty winter left. February and March are the type of months when tons of snow can fall. As the old say goes" A lady once burned all of her wood to make fire because of the bitter cold " and this happened in March. That's how bad March can be.

I'm done with snow and anything related to winter by March, I just hate back-loaded winters. Bring on spring by about March 10th or so.

[Tom]

This winter (Nov is not winter),, based on expectation and forecasts from many- thus far-- has sucked. All of DEC sucked,, the 1st half of JAN was cold with some snow and now the last half of JAN way sucks for being the dead of winter. Yeah-- Ok-- snow in earnest with cold may be coming in late Jan early Feb,, but by that time the sun angle and length of day makes it seem like your kissing your sister.... A real winter this is not.....

I could understand your frustration about December and the whole sun angle rising higher in the sky as well as the days getting longer.  It would have been nice to see a snowy December leading up to Christmas and the Holidays  Seems like this year it "knocked the wind out of the sails".

 

We don't live in Canada where Winter starts in Nov and ends in April.  Over the next 20-30 years, Winters are steadily going to get worse as I believe there is going to be a mini "Ice Age" down the road.  

 

IMO, we are going to have some exciting weather over the next 4-6 weeks...it all starts the following weekend.

[indianajohn]

Correct me if I am wrong but if this predicted arctic outbreak does happen last part of January and February doesn't it offset any big monster snowstorms tapping into any gulf moisture? 

[Tom]

From WGN;  Notice #1 and #7 both occurred in late January and we are approaching that period at a time when a major pattern change is heading our way.

 

There were multiple storm systems in the LRC's previous cycles that developed in the deep south/Gulf Coast states.  Hoping these pieces of energy can produce some big time storm systems in January/February.

[Geos]

I'm done with snow and anything related to winter by March, I just hate back-loaded winters. Bring on spring by about March 10th or so.

 

That's about when I've had it with snow as well. Snowy February's are awesome, but I don't like the snow lingering past the first week of March.

 

Hit 43° here today with some sun and some clouds. Melted a decent amount of snow. Grass starting to show in high spots, around trees, and on south facing slopes.

[GDR]

Looks like something brewing up the first week of February, but not much in between.

[Tom]

Models are trending with more extended blocking as we move forward and finish off January.  Something I thought would happen this time around as the LRC cycles through and also knowing what the SST Analogs are showing for February.

 

You could see the trend after the first dip into negative territory was to bring the teleconnections back positive, but that has since changed.

[Tom]

00z Euro still digging next Sunday/Monday's system into the Midwest and another one developing in the Plains in the extended...

[winterfreak]

More bleh un the extended. I honestly can't wait for spring to start. Not even because this winter has been boring. Just can't wait to start tracking some bow echoes and so on. Might not be in a good spot for consistently cold and snowy winters but Spring around here is always interesting.

[Snowshoe]

This website is called "The Weather Forums". Climate Change is a discussion of climate and not weather. Big distinction! Can we agree on that?

 

Back to taking weather. Broke 32 for the first time this year. Currently 31 this morning which should be the high temp as well. Luckily the dry low level air didn't melt much even with the warm up. Hopeful one clipper in the clipper train surprises!

[Scott26]

00z Euro still digging next Sunday/Monday's system into the Midwest and another one developing in the Plains in the extended...

This system is definitely the next one to watch. Take a look at the Canadian showing something very similar in this time frame. A clipper type system comes moves south from Canada and merges with the southern stream. Plenty of cold air and moisture in supply as well.

[Tom]

WSI changing its tune as we head towards the next 3 months.  They are now seeing the blocking developing near Greenland and also seeing the weakening El Nino that should create conditions similar to last year and allow Winter to last into Spring.

 

 

For those hoping for an early spring, it looks like you may be out of luck for most of the East. The chilly conditions will continue for areas east of the Rockies as we head into February, while the trend in above-average temperatures in the West will continue as well.

The weather forecast models are not showing signs of any sustained stretches of above-average temperatures over the next few weeks. However, there may be some changes in the pattern heading into March and April.

(MORE: Expert Analysis | Winter Central)

 

http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/FEB_APR_TEMP_FCST.jpg?v=at&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

 

Enlarge

 

Temperature Forecast for February through April. (Weather Services International) 

 

Forecast Highlights

In February, colder than average temperatures are expected for locations east of the Rockies with warmer than average temperatures in the West.

Below-average temperatures will persist in March and April for the Southeast and South-Central regions of the U.S. However, there are indications that the Northeast and North-Central sections of the country will see a trend toward above-average temperatures beginning in March and continuing into April.

(FORECAST: 10-Day Forecast Maps)

Overall, the West will continue to experience warmer than average temperatures through April.

Forecast Factors

WSI forecasters look at long-range computer models as well as several indices when making the seasonal forecasts and it is a combination of factors that leads to the resulting temperautre pattern.

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford:

"Cold weather has returned in January as expected, with below-normal temperatures observed across most of the eastern two thirds of the nation. We originally expected a spell of much warmer temperatures during late January, but it now appears that this will not occur, as another cold spell will set in as we head into February. The impacts from the weak El Nino event are already waning, allowing for a pattern similar to last year to set up for the last half of winter."

 

http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/elnino_temps.jpg?v=at&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

 

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Map shows the typical moderate to strong El Nino winter temperature impacts. Above-average temperatures from the Northwest to the Great Lakes and below-average temperatures from the Gulf Coast to southern Texas.  

 

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center notes that neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are currently in place with positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies found across most of the Pacific Ocean, although recently positive sea surface temperatures have weakened in the eastern Pacific. NOAA indicates that there is approximately a 50-60 percent chance of El Nino conditionsthrough mid-March, with ENSO-netural conditions favored thereafter. El Nino conditions can lead to milder temperatures in the northern tier, depending on the strength of the El Nino event.

(MORE: El Nino Winter Temperatures)

There are also indications that there will be a negative North Atlantic Osciallation (NAO) index phase heading through the end of January and early February. When there is a negative NAO index phase there tends to be more cold outbreaks and snow in the eastern U.S.

Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge looks likely to remain over the West Coast which will protect the area from intrusions of arctic air.

The Climate Prediction Center also is suggesting that the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. will experience below-average temperatures toward the end of January and beginning of February, with a significant arctic intrusion possible. The CPC also expects above-average temperatures to persist for much of the West. 

[gosaints]

We need a different thread for the global warming ice age crap

[james1976]

DMX going with CPC for extended.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/dmx/wx/File.png

[Tom]

12z GFS correcting the Sun/Mon system farther west instead of shoving it to fast to the east.  Has anyone noticed its trough is farther east in the extended?  It'll probably correct farther west in time.

[gosaints]

Next 7 days above normal here

[Tom]

If you have a powerful Aleutian Low centered to the west of Alaska and south of the islands, this should in future runs correct a deeper trough in the eastern 2/3rd of the U.S.  GFS has backed off a bit with the cold, but I'd imagine the model correct a deeper trough in future runs.

[Scott26]

12z GFS correcting the Sun/Mon system farther west instead of shoving it to fast to the east.  Has anyone noticed its trough is farther east in the extended?  It'll probably correct farther west in time.

It has a 1003 mb low over Chicago during this time period. It's northern stream dominant and there isn't really much of a southern stream present. It's heading in the right direction though.

[tbone8]

I started a dedicated thread to the global warming topic. I think we can all keep it civil and have a good discussion.

[Geos]

Thanks Tbone, I was just about to do that.

 

15 day run of snow cover breaking up considerably now. Over performing temps already in the upper 30s with mostly sunny skies. Generally under 2" of snow across the ground. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Besides the piles and a few drifts, are snow is gone in central Nebraska. What looked so nice a week and a half ago is a distant memory. What a dud of a winter so far.

[Tom]

This system next weekend has a ton potential to phase into something big near the Lakes....just check out the monster trough the Euro is trying to evolve...

[Tony]

Just great, another potential storm 7 days out that will most likely fizzle out to nothing just like most of the long range storms this winter. If the models still show it 3 days out then it might have my interest.

[Tom]

Both GFS/EURO are showing a light snow Tue/Wed...

[Tom]

I'm sure the state of Wisconsin is in a state of "shock and awe" to realize what just happened....almost like the Hawks losing Game 7 at the UC in OT last year...Packer World is devastated....

[Iowawx]

GFS shows a large storm on wait for it.... February 2. Not even sure why I bother. I think it's time to move on and forget about this winter. Just wasn't good. I'm sure we will have better winters in the years to come. Snowpack is just about gone in my area. 

[East Dubzz]

Losing game 7 in OT last year compares nothing to what just happened. I, fortunately, had the opportunity to experience both.

[Geos]

I'd say the snow cover is down to about 50-60% now. Hit 40° earlier. 

[Scott26]

I'm sure the state of Wisconsin is in a state of "shock and awe" to realize what just happened....almost like the Hawks losing Game 7 at the UC in OT last year...Packer World is devastated....

Fantastic... I couldn't be happier lol

[SE Wisconsin]

GFS shows a large storm on wait for it.... February 2. Not even sure why I bother. I think it's time to move on and forget about this winter. Just wasn't good. I'm sure we will have better winters in the years to come. Snowpack is just about gone in my area. 

I agree!  This winter just doesn't seem to be conducive for big storms.  Hopefully we'll have a warm spring with some good systems and thunderstorms to track by then.

[Madtown]

F it....winter sucks and now this. Sea hawks blow

[SE Wisconsin]

F it....winter sucks and now this. Sea hawks blow

Horrible play calling in the second half.  You have the best quarterback in the league and yet the ball gets handed off to Eddie Lacy up the middle on down after down - incredible!  Even with a strained calf Aaron Rodgers is still the best out there.  I hope Mike McCarthy and the Packer's staff brood on this one for a long time during the off-season.  They deserve to lose!  Winter sucks and so do the Packers!

[NEJeremy]

Wasn't the LRC supposed to have a storm cycle through in the 21-23rd timeframe or is that storm now just another go&$amn clipper that's showing up?!!

[SE Wisconsin]

Wasn't the LRC supposed to have a storm cycle through in the 21-23rd timeframe or is that storm now just another go&$amn clipper that's showing up?!!

According to a local met here in SE Wisconsin, who is familiar with the LRC, the next major system targeted for the Upper Midwest will be around Feb. 2nd.  Nothing but weak systems and relatively mild temps until late January when the next surge of arctic air arrives.  Same part of the LRC that occurred in early and mid December. 

[james1976]

Doesnt seem to be much of an LRC this year. Has anything repeated? We still have half the Winter left so we could have some fun yet. I had a 9" snowstorm on May 2, 2013 so who knows.

[Jaycee]

I'm sure the state of Wisconsin is in a state of "shock and awe" to realize what just happened....almost like the Hawks losing Game 7 at the UC in OT last year...Packer World is devastated....

Been a packer fan since I was a toddler. I used to memorize the entire roster of the team and have probably missed less than 10 games my entire life. This, aside from the loss with the fail Mary (to Seattle nonetheless) is by far the worst loss I've ever seen. I'm heartbroken. Don't think ive cracked a smile all day since. Honestly speechless. What I don't understand is the lack of support, from our own division. If the bears were in this I'd rather see them win than a team bound for its 2nd superbowl in a row. C'mon man. Green Bay has hardly any cocky players, in comparison to the cockiest Seattle team in the NFL. Doesn't make sense. Anyways, probably won't be a happy camper for awhile. That one was a dagger, right in the feels

[james1976]

I dont like the Seahawks, mainly cuz of Sherman. I hope Brady shreds him. Packers made some terrible mistakes down the stretch. The missed recovery on the onside kick and they didnt even attempt to make a play on that 2 point conversion. I'm disappointed they lost.

I do like Russell Wilson though.

[Scott26]

Patriots vs. Seahawks is going to be a great Superbowl though. I'm thinking that the Seahawks are going to repeat, but Patriots can very well win also. It shouldn't be a blowout like it was last year.

[Grizzcoat]

Huge football fan-- but this is not place for that.

 

A week ago I thought (along with many on here) that there was no way JAN would finish above normal as at the time DSM was nearly 8F below normal. Through the 18th it's now -2.6 and likely will be above by the mid to late week. One can make case that this "pullback"  to warmth is not a "pullback" but the main driver when the monthly temps end up above avg. The "pullback" has been when it gets below normal.

Now it appears the arctic air will not be as widespread or long lasting as previously thought. And if you buy the Euro control--- BLOWTORCH by early FEB. Models can change fast, but they are not budging for the time being on a significant storm for most of the region to close out JAN. Major bummer.

 

 

 

[Money]

No offense, but posting maps 300+ hours out is far more annoying than people talking football