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January 2015 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Geos
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That is one massive West Coast ridge on the 8th! Can clearly see where the air is coming from for our area.   Took these snow pictures today within a radius of 10 miles. 10° and falling out there righ

Tom
Tom

This type of cold after a warm December is going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people.  Can't wait to see Lake Michigan steaming like a hot cup of tea!

Tom
Tom

Fantastic comeback victory!  I went to this bar down the street from the UC called "West End".  It's the official Hawks bar.  The atmosphere was awesome.  This team never gives up that's for sure and

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Even the GFS and its ensembles mostly kicking out around .15-.2" QPF, good reason that MKX is going with 2-4" in my grids.

There is your chance to get some nice Powda since the Clipper missed you guys.  Nature likes to fill in the "blanks" I guess.  I like these kinda of Clippers as they can bring in some intense bursts of snow like they did in NE/KS yesterday.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Grid forecast keeps pushing back the warmth and no above freezing temps over the next 10 days which would bring us to the period where the brief pull back occurs (if it does).  What I believe will happen is a storm system or 2 to develop in the central CONUS and ride up into the Lakes Week 2 & 3 before the pattern shifts into the NW NAMER ridge to close out January.

 

Remember when we saw this kind of explosive warming at 30mb last year and the year before...look out for some frigid cold to close out January...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Meh, I have a feeling this is going to be a boring month.  Pattern just doesn't appear right for any major storms and teleconnections are definitely not helping.

Yeah we haven't seen anything yet when it was supposed to be an active period after the middle of December and to open up the New Year. Other places have seen some snow now this past week, but it's skipped us and the big snows really only hit in a stripe from SE SoDak through Iowa from a clipper system. For a while this weekend looked like it had potential but that was a week out on the models when it was showing that. There's a system for the beginning of next week but that is too far south. It's another tough winter so far, who knows if it will change. There's always a chance of course with the months coming up usually having our bigger systems, but we'll see...

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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00z GGEM has been most aggressive with this Clipper system on Thursday...would be some higher ratios snows like yesterday...

12z Canadian still bullish with the clipper and GFS is on board as well. Maybe see an inch or two tomorrow to add to the landscape.

 

 

gempost-68-0-48536500-1420646902.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Canadian still bullish with the clipper and GFS is on board as well. Maybe see an inch or two tomorrow to add to the landscape.

Yup, reminds me of what was happening last winter every 2-3 days we saw an inch here, 2-4" there, 4-5 inches every where!  Haha...btw, 12z GFS trending in the right direction from Mon-Wed...

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Yup, reminds me of what was happening last winter every 2-3 days we saw an inch here, 2-4" there, 4-5 inches every where!  Haha...btw, 12z GFS trending in the right direction from Mon-Wed...

At least it is showing something in the medium range. Something to track for sure.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Canadian still bullish with the clipper and GFS is on board as well. Maybe see an inch or two tomorrow to add to the landscape.

I'd say snow ratios could push 15:1 easy with this clipper...850's look very good to fluff up the snow...

 

12z PGFS sending a dagger to the mid month warm up into the central CONUS...

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Models are starting to show more blocking and a pronounced eastern CONUS trough (+PNA).  Notice the big changes already from 06z PGFS to today's 12z run...you can start tacking on more of the subzero nights with this type of pattern.  The winter of 2014-15 is making up for lost time.  Several bouts of snowfall is on the agenda as well as over the next 10 days from the Midwest/Lakes on east.  

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tim the weatherman Newbie

tim the weatherman

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the what i am hearing that a mid month thaw is in the forecast because the snowman has said that on his weather blog the cpc and all of our mets has said that and the what the snowman has stated to close out the month will be back to wintry pattren because this is the last punch and the what tom has posted about the temps models i would have tossed them out because those maps has the whole us in the cold and as far as february is concerned from mid month on will be warm. :angry:

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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the what i am hearing that a mid month thaw is in the forecast because the snowman has said that on his weather blog the cpc and all of our mets has said that and the what the snowman has stated to close out the month will be back to wintry pattren because this is the last punch and the what tom has posted about the temps models i would have tossed them out because those maps has the whole us in the cold and as far as february is concerned from mid month on will be warm. :angry:

Mid month warm-up, if it actually does materialize, will be short lived. As far as mid month February being warm, no way to know what will actually happen as the models are having a hard enough time figuring out what's going to happen in the short-medium term.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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0° currently with a wind chill around -20° now. Roads were a bit better today. More of the ice and snow was scrapped off overnight. 

 

If there is a warm up coming this month I wouldn't expect any higher than 30s. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Euro heading towards the idea of a brief 3 day transitional period around the 17th-20th and then the jet cuts underneath what will become the Split Flow pattern in the NE Pacific.  It's also seeing the storminess develop in the central CONUS around the 21st.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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It appears that Des Moines has broken the all time SLP record for IA.. At 1122am today-- DSM ASOS measured 31.07" of HG or 1052.15 mb.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2890

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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tsaw111 Newbie

tsaw111

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The way I look at it is that they add it to the end of the year. We do very little then so that extra day is practically wasted.

 

These kinds of statements make my blood boil.  I love the weather, and I think for the vast majority of people on this weather forum, and my local forum genuinely follow it for the weather.  However, the downfall on both is the number of teachers that show up just hoping for another day off.  Your tax dollars hard at work people!

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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These kinds of statements make my blood boil. I love the weather, and I think for the vast majority of people on this weather forum, and my local forum genuinely follow it for the weather. However, the downfall on both is the number of teachers that show up just hoping for another day off. Your tax dollars hard at work people!

Ummm I think the poster is a student...

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WBadgersW Rookie

WBadgersW

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These kinds of statements make my blood boil. I love the weather, and I think for the vast majority of people on this weather forum, and my local forum genuinely follow it for the weather. However, the downfall on both is the number of teachers that show up just hoping for another day off. Your tax dollars hard at work people!

Well majority of people my age always want days off. As a teen you never wanted days off and you thought about taxes?

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tsaw111 Newbie

tsaw111

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Well majority of people my age always want days off. As a teen you never wanted days off and you thought about taxes?

True, I did!  my apologies.  I see a lot of teacher activity on these things, and it gets me going.  I assumed, and you know what that means... 

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