January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

12z GGEM with another Clipper type system Thursday night near the Lakes.  GFS trying to show the same thing but a little weaker.

[winterfreak]

If the supposed storm that was supposed to correlate to Nov 14th system was anything worth keeping an eye on there would have been a thread already.

[Scott26]

My Grid forecast finally looks like a winter like January pattern in Chicago.  #Chiberia 

Do you think LOT will go with a Wind Chill Advisory or Wind Chill Warning for the mid-week arctic outbreak? It looks like a borderline Wind Chill Warning situation especially Thursday Morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if they go with an advisory either. I'm just really hoping for a day or two off next week haha.

[Tom]

12z Euro also seeing another Clipper on Thursday into the Lakes, with another wave brewing on the 10th...then a system trying to organize itself down in the south near the Gulf Coast.  Looks disorganized now, plenty of time to watch this unfold.  

 

Gotta say, this pattern is looking better and more active esp across the northern 1/2 of the lower 48.

[Tom]

Do you think LOT will go with a Wind Chill Advisory or Wind Chill Warning for the mid-week arctic outbreak? It looks like a borderline Wind Chill Warning situation especially Thursday Morning, but I wouldn't be surprised if they go with an advisory either. I'm just really hoping for a day or two off next week haha.

I think Wednesday is the day you will probably be called off of school.  This is the first strongest arctic shot of the season and I'm thinking criteria for a WC Warning is on the table Wednesday.

[Tom]

Check out the Euro's last 3 runs for the same time for 12z Jan 10th.  Notice how the core of the coldest air in the North America shifts west each 24HR run.  Classic error of the EPO teleconnection I posted last night.  This also makes the 12z run the coldest run yet for the Lower 48 in the Day 5-10 period.  It was supposed to warm up into the 40's already by the 8th in the Plains and the snow cover gone by then.  Not any more.  Temps are now forecast to be in the teens and probably tack on another sub-zero night.

 

Guess what models spotted this first???  GFS/PGFS...so far they are the models running the show this Winter as far as the hemispheric pattern goes.

[Tom]

12z Euro continues to trend the AO towards neutral after the initial spike.  GFS/PGFS are thinking it will start heading negative around the 12th-14th.  PGFS/GFS/EURO all seeing the WPO in the tank at around -3/-4.

[WBadgersW]

Feels like winter is finally here. Went from 26℉ at 8:30am to 12℉. It feels so refreshing outside.

[james1976]

That system next weekend would prolly be another high ratio event with temps in the teens.

[Scott26]

I think Wednesday is the day you will probably be called off of school.  This is the first strongest arctic shot of the season and I'm thinking criteria for a WC Warning is on the table Wednesday.

True, but Thursday morning seems to be the worse with temps nearly or in the double digit negatives and wind chills between -30 and -35. It will warm up very quickly, but I wouldn't be surprised if I have a late arrival or even a cancellation on Thursday as well.

[Tom]

Back on Dec 24th I posted a Euro Ensemble map for Day 15 of the 500mb pattern over the Northern Hemisphere and pointed out that it sure looked like a cold pattern was ahead.  Now, fast forward 11 days and I'll post the current forecast map for the same time period.  Like I said back on Christmas, watch Canada fill up with deeper blues and here we are.  A very cold pattern which we are about to endure.

 

Looking forward and the expected relax from this cold that is coming, I think the Euro Ensembles are starting to point it out.  Notice the "Omega Block" pattern setting up in Canada.  Don't think this is a warm pattern, because it's not.  At this time there will be alot of cold air funneled into the pattern and one that could become stormy.  The model is trying to hint at the Pacific jet stream slamming into Cali Week 2 under cutting the ridge in Canada.  You can get some nice storm systems in this type of pattern.

 

Now, if the AO/NAO/WPO can cooperate, then this pattern can become conducive to whip up some big storms.

 

 

[winterfreak]

A lot of what ifs. Right now, we have the cold in place but can't buy a storm to save our lives. Even with an active southern branch it's still a major struggle. Soon we'll moderate again. Not as pronounced of a warm up as we had in December but still there. Will our fortune change? I hope so but medium range models are looking grim as of now for healthy storms.

[Niko]

A lot of what ifs. Right now, we have the cold in place but can't buy a storm to save our lives. Even with an active southern branch it's still a major struggle. Soon we'll moderate again. Not as pronounced of a warm up as we had in December but still there. Will our fortune change? I hope so but medium range models are looking grim as of now for healthy storms.

I agree. So far this winter has been nothing but garbage. December was a joke. January just started, but, we are approaching the 10th of the month and struggling to get a real winterstorm 6"+ snowfall. We are all getting excited over a clipper coming tomorrow, so that goes to show you how pathetic this winter has been so far. I hope this clipper can provide some snow for some on this forum because it is looking dry for the rest of the week and frigid.Some disturbances down the road, but nothing to brag about. So, we are getting very cold air, big woop, it is winter, what do you expect. The point here is to get a real snowstorm going, not clippers. Lets hope mother nature can provide us all with a huge snowstorm because before you know, February will be here and soon after that, its ba bye winter and Hello Spring!!!!

[Geos]

That is one massive West Coast ridge on the 8th! Can clearly see where the air is coming from for our area.

 

Took these snow pictures today within a radius of 10 miles. 10° and falling out there right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

That is one massive West Coast ridge on the 8th! Can clearly see where the air is coming from for our area.

 

Took these snow pictures today within a radius of 10 miles. 10° and falling out there right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

very cool pics geos and that massive ridge on the west coast will begin to breakdown after the 10th of next weekend because i am hearing that a pattren shift could happen after this week to more a zonal flow pattren.

[Maxim]

Great pics Geos

[james1976]

I agree. So far this winter has been nothing but garbage. December was a joke. January just started, but, we are approaching the 10th of the month and struggling to get a real winterstorm 6"+ snowfall. We are all getting excited over a clipper coming tomorrow, so that goes to show you how pathetic this winter has been so far. I hope this clipper can provide some snow for some on this forum because it is looking dry for the rest of the week and frigid.Some disturbances down the road, but nothing to brag about. So, we are getting very cold air, big woop, it is winter, what do you expect. The point here is to get a real snowstorm going, not clippers. Lets hope mother nature can provide us all with a huge snowstorm because before you know, February will be here and soon after that, its ba bye winter and Hello Spring!!!!

It doesnt matter where the system comes from....snow is snow. And many areas will see over 6" with this storm tomorrow.

[james1976]

And last year was nothing but a clipper train with many areas setting snowfall records. 

[Tom]

I find it interesting to see that both the GFS/EURO see the majority of the PV on this side of the Pole poking into North America by Day 10.  Unlike in December, this was on the other side of the Globe.  Hmmmm....

 

 

Might the models be seeing the Strat Warming at 30mb over Eurasia???  It's possible....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Geos]

very cool pics geos and that massive ridge on the west coast will begin to breakdown after the 10th of next weekend because i am hearing that a pattren shift could happen after this week to more a zonal flow pattren.

 

Thanks guys~

 

Right now I'm not betting on anything for next week. All the teleconnections; except maybe the WPO, would typical suggest we'd be under a ridge right now. +NAO, +AO, slightly negative PNA, and Phase 5 MJO.

Not sure where will end up once the AO and NAO go negative...

 

I know this week is going to be bitterly cold though!

[Geos]

I find it interesting to see that both the GFS/EURO see the majority of the PV on this side of the Pole poking into North America by Day 10.  Unlike in December, this was on the other side of the Globe.  Hmmmm....

 

 

Might the models be seeing the Strat Warming at 30mb over Eurasia???  It's possible....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

That stratospheric warming is well placed if you want to force the PV onto our side of the globe. There was one in eastern Siberia late last December and the result was the cold snap that brought coldest temperatures of January down on us.

[Tom]

That stratospheric warming is well placed if you want to force the PV onto our side of the globe. There was one in eastern Siberia late last December and the result was the cold snap that brought coldest temperatures of January down on us.

On top of that the AO is forecast to dip back towards neutral according to the Euro, but the PGFS has it going negative and so does the CFSv2.  Those are solid indicators we should still maintain some cold air around, not bitter cold, but at least cold enough to produce snow systems.  Late month is when I think the bottom drops.

[Niko]

It doesnt matter where the system comes from....snow is snow. And many areas will see over 6" with this storm tomorrow.

Would much rather track a storm from GOM, than a clipper type system. They are much more fun to track and stronger. Clippers are in and out!

[Niko]

And last year was nothing but a clipper train with many areas setting snowfall records. 

I can assure you my area last year did not break record snowfall by clippers. We had storm after storm here. Yes, we did have clippers, if you will, but, the storm systems that we had is what broke record territory here where I am. I remember each storm producing 8"+. 

[Niko]

very cool pics geos and that massive ridge on the west coast will begin to breakdown after the 10th of next weekend because i am hearing that a pattren shift could happen after this week to more a zonal flow pattren.

That looks like a dusting to an inch at the most if I  am correct!

[ToastedRavs]

Great pics Geos! 

[FV-Mike]

I can assure you my area last year did not break record snowfall by clippers. We had storm after storm here. Yes, we did have clippers, if you will, but, the storm systems that we had is what broke record territory here where I am. I remember each storm producing 8"+. 

ORD, only had 1 storm of 8" or more last year and finished with 82 inches. May have been different by you but it was more the consistency of the snow than large storms.

[Grizzcoat]

If the true arctic air can arrive a little quicker-- DSM has a chance at  a min/max record on WED-- current records for the 7th.

1/7 -6 in 1942 -5 in 1912 -2 in 1887

[Tom]

00z PGFS clearly showing the PV in the longer range establishing itself just to the north of Hudson Bay and ridging off the west coast up into Canada.  Meanwhile, it continues an onslaught of arctic HP that originate off the pole and bleed SE on the east side of the Rockies with waves of energy out ahead of each HP.  There is no reprieve from the cold in the extended.

[tim the weatherman]

phil schwartz of wls tv said that the10 to14 day forecast will see temps to near normal.

[Geos]

That looks like a dusting to an inch at the most if I  am correct!

 

No that's just over 3" on the ground. The ground wouldn't looks so solid white if it was only 1".

 

Down to 0° for the first time this season.

[Tom]

phil schwartz of wls tv said that the10 to14 day forecast will see temps to near normal.

00z PGFS actually develops a cross-polar flow Day 9-10 and clear blocking near Alaska.  This model has been very consistent with these developments.  Also, notice on the SST below where the warm waters are and on the precip map you will see that there are NO systems slamming into NW NAMER.  Instead, they ride up to the west of Alaska pumping the ridge and spinning in the Bearing Sea.  This model caught the pattern in advance of the Euro for this upcoming week.  It'll be interesting to see if this model continues this trend throughout the week.  At the end of the day, SST's rule the pattern.

[Geos]

ORD, only had 1 storm of 8" or more last year and finished with 82 inches. May have been different by you but it was more the consistency of the snow than large storms.

 

That's highly debatable. There was another storm in January where there was questionable snowfall observations at ORD that did not match well with nearby Co-op observers. Ask anyone in the area and they would say ORD had two storms over 8".

[Tom]

00z GGEM also picking up on this pattern in the longer range with multiple waves coming through the region in the extended that form off of the northern Pacific.  Interesting pattern that may be setting up.  Might not have a mid month reprieve if this persists.

[Tom]

00z Euro driving the PV deeper into Canada Day 9 from its earlier 12z run...interesting to see these trends in the models tonight.  Looks like a colder outlook ahead.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015010500/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[Tom]

Stepped outside this morning to a balmy -3F!  First sub-zero night of the year and will probably tack on 3 more this week.  Looking forward to another 2-4" tonight to refresh the snow cover.  Interesting pattern setting up this week with several disturbances over the next 7 days.  GFS/PGFS still showing the pattern to continue to deliver arctic air out of the north.  PGFS now starting to develop a -AO/-NAO by mid month.  We may be locking into a pattern we saw back in the late 70's were we saw system after system (depending on location) with re-surging shots of bitter cold.

[Tom]

Storm systems over the next 10 days in the northern Pacific will begin to spin up south of the Aleutian Islands and begin to pump up the Alaskan Ridge and also raise hieghts into the Arctic.  Look at this development on the 06z GFS in the maps below:

 

Coincidentally, the SSW is now starting to poke up into the upper latitudes and I think the PGFS is going to nail this pattern.  January is going to be brutal if this is going to where I think it can.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

 

[gosaints]

GFS Mex gets it to -16 with a 20 mph wind here on wednesday morning

[tim the weatherman]

jb said on his twitter page that the us ensembles does not have chicago above freezing for the next 16 days or so