January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

GFS continues to show a nice snowpack developing--- I wish it was early DEC-- but I will take it if it verifies-

[jimmyzlc]

_{Are we ever going to see a good snow storm soon? After last years bountiful snow this season doesn't look to promising. I know it's still early, but nothing seems to be lining up for a mega snow storm this year.}

[Tom]

The coldest run yet for the month of January on the CFSv2...

[Tom]

Both the JMA/EURO models are going to bust pretty bad for their Week 2 forecast from last week which will be the Jan 3-10 period.  Goes to show you how much is really going on this winter and the difficulty the models are having to forecast anything beyond Day 7.  However, the GFS was the only model that saw the cold coming way in advance so it may be a good idea to pay attention to this model a bit more throughout this winter. 

 

 

Here is the old Week 2 JMA Weekly for the Jan 3-10 period.....and below is the new Jan 3-10 period...notice how it totally missed the NW NAMER ridge which will ultimately be seeding tremendous cold air into the pattern.

 

 

Now, what is interesting again is the model in Week 2 is seeing another massive ridge BUT it is sorta hinting at the Alaskan Ridge.  Let's see how this unfolds next week for the Jan 10-17 period. Euro Ensembles seeing torch again.  CFSv2 seeing continued onslaught of cold air.  The battle begins.

 

Lastly, the JMA Week 3 & 4 starting to see and maybe trying to lock in the massive NW NAMER ridge for the last 2 weeks of January.  Cold pattern ahead for this month.

[Tom]

Who's going to watch the Winter Classic game????  Go Hawks!!!!

[tim the weatherman]

from the old farmer's almanachttp://www.almanac.com/sites/almanac.ypi.com/modules/longrange/graphs/2015/graph.us.6.png

[Tom]

Took a while, but now the 12z Euro is seeing the cold Sunday night and then Tuesday night.  GFS saw the cold coming much earlier and to see the Euro play catch up is kinda funny.

[Tom]

My case study might work out pretty well if we can get 6" or more of snow from that Clipper.  12z Euro now unloading the deep freezer for the Midwest/Lakes.

 

Models don't handle temperatures with Arctic HP's very well.  Wouldn't be surprised to see widespread -20F temps under the deeper snowpack.  Better get extra firewood.

[tim the weatherman]

just by looking at the analog tool that the one month we'll have to watch is this month after that then the patterns will start to get warmer exception for some chilly days.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs_monthly_z500.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs_monthly_mslp.png

[Sciascia]

http://i.imgur.com/k2pHFHh.gif

GFS has been very consistent over each run the last couple days for snow in this area for Tuesday. I'll post the most interesting thing I saw: A 6 hour period of one-inch-per-hour rates. Would be pretty sweet to see verify. But then again, 5 days out & anything can/will change.

[james1976]

18z GFS is coldddddd. And it's staying consistent with showing a storm around the midwest/lakes for the 10th time frame.

[Snowshoe]

Hey Snowshoe, there is your snow for your toys!

Gassed up and ready to go! Been a long wait. I'll share some pics.

[tim the weatherman]

the're is a discussion on accuweather fourms regarding the ao so i am writing this is the only reason why the ao is not negative is a lack of ssw known as sudden stratospheric warming and they are talking a torch at the end of the month (jan25th to feb 5).

[GDR]

the're is a discussion on accuweather fourms regarding the ao so i am writing this is the only reason why the ao is not negative is a lack of ssw known as sudden stratospheric warming and they are talking a torch at the end of the month (jan25th to feb 5).

hopefully an early spring this year.

[Tom]

the're is a discussion on accuweather fourms regarding the ao so i am writing this is the only reason why the ao is not negative is a lack of ssw known as sudden stratospheric warming and they are talking a torch at the end of the month (jan25th to feb 5).

I'm not sure that is the right idea.  You don't need SSW to get cold air.  The CFSv2 is seeing a colder look and now for the 3rd straight Euro Weeklies Run, it is seeing a cold/stormy month.  It actually has been seeing a significant shot of cold to finish off this month.  Not only that, but today's JMA Weeklies are showing a huge NW NAMER ridge to develop for the final 2 weeks of the month.  Signals are pointing towards a colder month rather than warmth.

[Tom]

Both GFS/PGFS showing subzero highs for next Wednesday and extremely cold temps Wednesday night...this would be about a week later to last year's Polar Vortex invasion and may even be about to the same degree temp wise, if not a little colder.

[Scott26]

Both GFS/PGFS showing subzero highs for next Wednesday and extremely cold temps Wednesday night...this would be about a week later to last year's Polar Vortex invasion and may even be about to the same degree temp wise, if not a little colder.

With the strength of the HP and with significant snow cover that would likely not be out of the realm of possibility. Just for fun I took a look at the wind chills based on the PGFS and for Wednesday morning they would be between -35 to -40 degrees across Northern Illinois. I would be thrilled if somehow I can get a day off of school from cold temperatures like last year. The best thing about that is since it's my last year of high school I wouldn't have to make up any cold/snow days in the summertime. No way this verifies without a significant snowpack so it's still a giant if, but one can dream right? lol

[winterfreak]

Lots of cold with not much moisture is kind of pointless really. Looks like there's still something brewing in the ling range but we've heard that story before. Ho hum until then.

[Tom]

Wednesday high temps on the 00z Euro...

[Tom]

Wednesday night...the Polar Plunge...

[Money]

Nothing like -10 for a high...

[Tom]

Look how bad the Euro will bust from it's forecast 4 days ago for the period on Jan 8th 00z...pretty lousy model behavior if you ask me.

[Tom]

On the contrary, look at how the GFS has handled the situation during the same time frames....pretty darn good.  When you look at the big picture, I think the GFS has been doing a much better job this winter.  Even with the Jan 3rd storm, it has never forecast more than 6" of snowfall and it predicted this storms track over 7 days ago while the Euro was non existent.  Something to consider down the road.

[gosaints]

Gfs has over amplified every storm in the medium range. It has been just as bad as the euro.

[Grizzcoat]

_{Euro again showing much warmer air in the picture at the end of its run - compared to the GFS. --- this cold shot in 6-8 days is  not a slam dunk esp with less snow likely on the ground then what was thought just 12 hours ago-- but then that can change as quick as Oregon scores td's. Models this winter just simply suck. It's like the weather told the physics involved in the  models trying to predict it  --to take hike. Wouldn't surprise me if by mid JAN to the 20th of JAn the  Upper Midwest torches.... These storms and rumors of storms may be all we have for some time. I would be shocked if JAN ends below normal in temps and above in snowfall for many areas.}

[Tom]

SSW is starting to brew in Eurasia at 30mb...something to watch over the next week...may be correlating well with the JMA Weeklies week 3 & 4 NW NAMER ridge.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[Tom]

Was talking about the coming bitter cold a hype???  I don't think so.  Now the local mets are starting hype about it and comparing it to last year's arctic attack.  We haven't seen this type of cold all winter and coming off from a relatively mild December, this is going to pack a punch.

 

Looking out in the longer range, I do think the cold will relax a bit mid month but it will begin to reload and come back down Week 3 & 4.  This is the pattern I have been waiting for and as we get deeper into the winter months of Jan/Feb the amount of cold that will filter into the pattern will be much more prevalent than Nov or Dec.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control seeing that Jan 9-12th system in the Plains/Lakes...total snowfall through Jan 13th...

 

[Tom]

12z GFS PAR total through Day 10...

[Tom]

CPC adjusted it's monthly temp outlook for this month.  Still looks cold for the central CONUS/Lakes.  Nice SE ridge is evident on this graphic and west coast ridge.  Looks like they are still thinking there will be an active southern branch of the jet stream.

[Money]

Forecast low/high temps next week:

 

Monday: High: 3  Monday Night: -3

Tuesday: High: 11 Tuesday Night: -8

Wednesday: High: 0 Wednesday Night: -12

 

Cold.

[tim the weatherman]

there is a pattern change coming up that by mid month the epo is fliped fro negative to positve and the pna also is going to flip to positve too and the ao could stay positve too so that means this could be a zonal flow.

[Tom]

18z GFS PAR... going buck wild after the 3rd system lays down some more snow from the Jan 9-12th time fram...a 1052mb HP invades the region.  I've been watching this model and it hasn't done that bad in the Day 5-10 range.  JMA is agreeing to some degree.  It looks like there will be an onslaught of Arctic HP's following each system over the next 10 days.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015010218/gfs_asnow_us_33.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2015010218/gfsp_asnow_us_33.png

[Tom]

That Jan 9-12th system is taking slow steps in the right direction and is lining up pretty well with the LRC.  This is correlating with the Nov 23rd/24th system.  Gary Lezak mentioned the LRC cycle is between 42-48 days in his blog.  I initially thought the Jan 3rd system would be the pre-Thanksgiving storm but I'm looking at it as a "bonus" system caught up in the pattern.  Should be an interesting week tracking this storm.

[tim the weatherman]

was just noticing that with this weekend's storm and by next week's clipper and by next weekend's storm we will be looking at high snow total's.

[GDR]

[GDR]

was just noticing that with this weekend's storm and by next week's clipper and by next weekend's storm we will be looking at high snow total's.

yeah we all know what happens this far out.

[Tom]

I've been watching the CFS model and lately its been showing a snow pack to continue from IL/IA/IN on north into WI/MN through February.  It all starts to build this coming week.  Let's see if it even comes close to that.  BTW, it is also seeing a nasty arctic shot around the Jan 10-13th period.

 

I have seen 3 consecutive runs on the Euro weeklies showing storminess throughout this month and the CFSv2 has been hinting at a couple big ones towards the end of the month with some brutal cold to finish off January.  When all sudden done, I think there will be some hefty snowfall totals in our region and snow surplus's that will erase the deficits a lot of us in the Midwest/Lakes are seeing.

[Geos]

Looks like winter is a lock for awhile now! High of 33° here today with filtered sun all day.