January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Looks like winter is a lock for awhile now! High of 33° here today with filtered sun all day.

Just can't wait to see some snow on the ground to cover this bare brown grass!  Some folks in my neighborhood took the time today to take off their Christmas lights!  I'm like, why in the world would you do such a thing already???  LOL

[Tom]

50% of the nation covered by snow...probably close to 40-45%...by end of next week, I'm guessing over 60% easy.  Winter is coming back.

[NEJeremy]

C'mon models keep showing the same hype you've been showing time and time again that always seems to be 7-14 days away. we all know none of that is coming true and it'll disappear when the time gets closer, or the storm will still happen but it'll be some weak sauce crap storm. it's probably going to snow somewhere sometime over the next couple of weeks, but my bets are with the annoying 1-3" snowfalls if anything at all. until the pattern actually changes, I'm going with persistence. that's why most of us here are at 3" of snow this winter if anything at all

[Tom]

C'mon models keep showing the same hype you've been showing time and time again that always seems to be 7-14 days away. we all know none of that is coming true and it'll disappear when the time gets closer, or the storm will still happen but it'll be some weak sauce crap storm. it's probably going to snow somewhere sometime over the next couple of weeks, but my bets are with the annoying 1-3" snowfalls if anything at all. until the pattern actually changes, I'm going with persistence. that's why most of us here are at 3" of snow this winter if anything at all

You gotta slow your roll buddy...with that attitude, that SE Dome over NE may bite you in your A@@!  When ppl post maps in the longer showing snowfall amounts, I highly doubt any one in their right mind thinks that without a doubt they are going to get 1-2 Feet of snow.  Come on man???  What's wrong with you???  It's a signal and the pattern is changing and you will see that this month is going to be a snowy and very cold month overall.  You might not be in the hot spot for snow, but someone in the central CONUS/LAKES will be hit hard this month.

 

Regarding your bets, your probably right...NE may be in the screw hole.  Who knows...

[Tom]

If the 18z CFSv2 is right...this month will rival last year's January as a whole....if not colder....-5C for ORD is almost -8F below normal for the month.

[Tom]

NW NAMER ridge very evident on the 00z GFS in the longer range.  JMA Weeklies/CFSv2/GFS all seeing a very cold signal now in the longer range.

 

BTW, I think I calculated a stretch of about 30-33 hours of sub-zero temps for ORD next week and about 4 nights total that dip below zero.  Anyone doubting this arctic attack won't be as cold as last years???  Last year ORD was subzero for a stretch of 34 hours I believe.  This would be darn close.

[Tom]

When you see 50% of the CFSv2 members showing a glacier to be built during this month, something tells me the model is "seeing" and active and very cold pattern to have this much real estate covered by snow by months end.  

 

It doesn't stop there, February keeps on delivering.  Remember what the analogs have for the months of January/February after a "lull" in the pattern in December, winter comes back with a vengeance as we get deeper into Winter.

 

Disclaimer: I'm NOT saying this WILL be the EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS...viewer discretion advised.

[Geos]

Just can't wait to see some snow on the ground to cover this bare brown grass!  Some folks in my neighborhood took the time today to take off their Christmas lights!  I'm like, why in the world would you do such a thing already???  LOL

 

O, I took mine all down today. I figure the snow is going to be wet then it's going to freeze on the lines and I'm not going to feel like taking them down next week, so I just took them all down. Most of my neighbors have taken them down as well.

 

Seems to be a general consensus of systems traveling more west to east this month.

 

Be interesting to see if we can beat out the coldest lows last winter. Here it was -16°.

[Tom]

O, I took mine all down today. I figure the snow is going to be wet then it's going to freeze on the lines and I'm not going to feel like taking them down next week, so I just took them all down. Most of my neighbors have taken them down as well.

 

Seems to be a general consensus of systems traveling more west to east this month.

 

Be interesting to see if we can beat out the coldest lows last winter. Here it was -16°.

Last year I took mine off in March!  Haha, there are still many houses with their lights on.  I guess its tradition for me to at least see snow on my Christmas lights before taking them down.  Something magical about having a fresh blanket of snow on them.

 

Regarding lows next week, its going to be close for ORD.  I think ORD it hit -14F so Wednesday night may be the night it does.  

[Tom]

Just for fun...back to back runs on the CFSv2 for February showing a cold Central and a nice SE Ridge.  That's what I like to see...not to mention, look at all that warmth along the NW NAMER coast and Alaska.  

[Tom]

After the AO spikes between the 5th-11th, the PGFS/GFS/EURO now starting to show the AO head back down towards neutral territory around the 12th and may even head negative thereafter.  However, all models showing a rather deep negative WPO (-2 range) which will fight any warming.

[james1976]

Those models way back are throwing out 2 feet of snow for me and -30s for temps. Wouldnt that be a massive slap in the face?! Obviously aint gonna happen but what IS obvious is that Winter is back and looks locked in for a while.

And, it's snowing lightly over here, finally. Cheers.

[Tom]

00z Euro Ensembles starting to show a deep trough near the Bearing Sea in the extended.  This normally pumps the Alaskan ridge and a downstream trough in our region.  I would watch for the model in the days to come begin to show deeper negative heights into Central Canada and points south of there into the Lower 48.

[NEJeremy]

You gotta slow your roll buddy...with that attitude, that SE Dome over NE may bite you in your A@@! When ppl post maps in the longer showing snowfall amounts, I highly doubt any one in their right mind thinks that without a doubt they are going to get 1-2 Feet of snow. Come on man??? What's wrong with you??? It's a signal and the pattern is changing and you will see that this month is going to be a snowy and very cold month overall. You might not be in the hot spot for snow, but someone in the central CONUS/LAKES will be hit hard this month.

 

Regarding your bets, your probably right...NE may be in the screw hole. Who knows...

Sorry for venting my frustrations at the lack of accuracy the long range models have had this winter. How crazy for me to say something like that. And no it's not because I believe in some imaginary dome. I know not to expect feet of snow when the models show that. Hell they can't even predict 1" or 3" right a day before.

[james1976]

Look how far south -20 850s go. Wow
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_111_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Tom]

12z GFS PAR indicating 36+ hours sub-zero for ORD next week...would be quite the arctic attack...the benchmark last year was -14F...looks very close to surpass that temp Wednesday night.

 

Meantime, 12z GFS getting its act together with the Jan 9th/10th system...

 

[james1976]

Liking that storm potential for next weekend. GFS has been consistently showing that as well. Fun times are finally here.

[Tom]

Liking that storm potential for next weekend. GFS has been consistently showing that as well. Fun times are finally here.

With another bitter arctic shot behind that system!  SSW event starting to occur over Eurasia and most GFS/EURO ensembles indicating the AO starting to tank mid January, you can see where this pattern is heading as we get deeper into winter.  This month is going to end up being pretty brutal if you ask me.  I think it may surpass last year.  February ain't looking pretty either.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

[james1976]

With another bitter arctic shot behind that system!  SSW event starting to occur over Eurasia and most GFS/EURO ensembles indicating the AO starting to tank mid January, you can see where this pattern is heading as we get deeper into winter.  This month is going to end up being pretty brutal if you ask me.  I think it may surpass last year.  February ain't looking pretty either.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

GFS picked up this pattern a while back didnt it? And now models are caving toward it. GFS deserves some credit. Also first model to show the cutter this weekend and the mon-tue clipper.

[Tom]

GFS picked up this pattern a while back didnt it? And now models are caving toward it. GFS deserves some credit. Also first model to show the cutter this weekend and the mon-tue clipper.

Yup, the GFS has been performing well all the way back in October and it recognized the hemispheric patterns a lot better than the Euro model has.  GFS def deserves credit and I think its worthy to keep a close eye on it for the remainder of this season as it is picking up on the signals much earlier than others.

[Tom]

Brrrrr!!!!

[Tom]

Great Saturday Summary video on Wx Bell by Joe Bastardi.  I recommend checking it out when he posts the video to the public.  It's a nice detailed explanation as to why we it is likely we end up with a colder January than last year near the Lakes and the overall CONUS.  Reason being, the onslaught of arctic HP's and NOT the PV which come and go.  Arctic HP's hit and stay and there is a train of them coming this month.

[Tom]

There is a reason why the Euro model has been busting in the 7-14 day range and a lot has to do with how the model is handling the overall hemispheric pattern.  The proof is in the pudding, and as you can see below the corrections in the EPO/WPO which trend lower (colder) as you get closer in time.  On the other hand, it has measured the AO quite well.  Having said that, IMO the GFS has the right track as we get closer to mid month and I do think there will be a brief period where the pattern reloads and some serious arctic air invades the nation Week 3-4.  

 

If we can get the AO to go back into negative territory and the EPO/WPO all staying negative, the cold that I think is coming to close out the month can be more vigorous than next week's shot, especially if there is a deeper snow pack around.  Lot's of weather to talk about over the coming 2 weeks.

[tim the weatherman]

dr jeff masters of weather underground came out discussing about the 2 week forecast that he is saying that the west coast ridging begins to break down and a zonal flow begins that means that a torch and with this country will be flooded with warmth.

[james1976]

dr jeff masters of weather underground came out discussing about the 2 week forecast that he is saying that the west coast ridging begins to break down and a zonal flow begins that means that a torch and with this country will be flooded with warmth.

LMAO

[Geos]

Brrrrr!!!!

 

Why that map doesn't show the coldest air out to the west vs. near the lake is beyond me. It did that last year too. Would think Aurora or Rochelle has a chance of reaching -20° next week.

[tim the weatherman]

i am writing this that the're is an early indications of an early spring this year the snowman and others has been saying this lately by the mjo and other indications and it might be here as early as late febuary early march.

[Tom]

i am writing this that the're is an early indications of an early spring this year the snowman and others has been saying this lately by the mjo and other indications and it might be here as early as late febuary early march.

Can't count on the MJO this year.  The models have been flip flopping back and forth.  I remember last week it was forecast to jump sky high into Phase 5 for this coming week and now its not the case so much with an arctic invasion.  It is now heading towards the "circle of death".

 

We have soo many variables that play against it to really know how it will affect our weather especially 2 months down the road.

[winterfreak]

Wouldn't mind an early spring given how this winter has gone. Current storm takes a perfect track but is a weak sheared out mess. Just not our year.

[The Snowman]

Can't count on the MJO this year.  The models have been flip flopping back and forth.  I remember last week it was forecast to jump sky high into Phase 5 for this coming week and now its not the case so much with an arctic invasion.  It is now heading towards the "circle of death".

 

We have soo many variables that play against it to really know how it will affect our weather especially 2 months down the road.

It only appears that the MJO is heading to the circle of death, when in reality, the ongoing wave is weakening and the new wave is forming. This should result in a wintry late January-early February after a rather dismal mid January.

[Maxim]

Why that map doesn't show the coldest air out to the west vs. near the lake is beyond me. It did that last year too. Would think Aurora or Rochelle has a chance of reaching -20° next week.

That model always shows significantly colder temps for the ORD-MKE corridor, and it never verifies.

[Tom]

It only appears that the MJO is heading to the circle of death, when in reality, the ongoing wave is weakening and the new wave is forming. This should result in a wintry late January-early February after a rather dismal mid January.

Mid month break also correlating with the LRC as it was a rather benign pattern after Thanksgiving.  I'm going to start paying attn to the AO/NAO though as we move closer to mid month and see what happens as well as next weeks JMA Weeklies to see if the December pattern evolves (which I don't think it will as we have a SSW event starting to brew near Eurasia and the NW NAMER ridge looks to develop Week 3 & 4).

[Tom]

CFSv2 lining up with the analogs for February...I'm posting the average last 3 days and most recent run... 

[winterfreak]

The supposed storm for next weekend seems to be loosing steam as well. After next week it looks like we'll moderate temperature wise again per the ECMWF ensembles.

[Money]

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----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
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----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
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150108/0900Z 105 24012KT -9.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
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----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
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150110/1200Z 156 29008KT -10.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
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----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
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That's a lot of negatives. 

[Tom]

My Grid forecast finally looks like a winter like January pattern in Chicago.  #Chiberia 

[Niko]

January and February looks to be harsh in the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. 

[FV-Mike]

Anything still poping up in aroind the 9th-10th?

[Tom]

Temps starting to tank...dropped 5 degrees in the last hour.  Can't believe how fast the arctic air will come in tonight...

 

12z GFS/PGFS still showing signs of the Jan 10th/11th system...PGFS a bit better...

[gosaints]

-2 here. After 6 inches last weekend and 2 overnight glacier in place