January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Haha it all good! I'm just a student wanting more time off.

 

And I'm a young professional who is thankful if they close schools because that means less crazy people on the roads around rush hour tomorrow (which will be a bear to navigate).

[Scott26]

My school is literally the only one around here that didn't cancel. Instead we have a late arrival that starts school at 10:30. I guess it isn't all bad, but I rather have had another day off...

[educatorjen]

I'm obviously a teacher and I'm just as excited for snow on the weekend as I am during the week. Sure I like snow days.... So that I can enjoy the snow with my own children.

 

Today was a cold day and I went in... My entire team did. We didn't have to. We chose to go in and spent five unpaid hours (because we will make this day up) and plan instruction and create common formative assessments.

 

My point is this... I'm here because I'm interested in the weather... Not in trying to figure out if I can bilk the tax payers....

[educatorjen]

Not to mention the 8 other hours I worked today on writing thoughtful report card comments about each individual child.

[Geos]

My school is literally the only one around here that didn't cancel. Instead we have a late arrival that starts school at 10:30. I guess it isn't all bad, but I rather have had another day off...

 

Well you can sleep in tomorrow! 

 

Forecasted low was bumped up to -9°. I think that's because the wind will keep the air somewhat mixed.

[Tom]

My school is literally the only one around here that didn't cancel. Instead we have a late arrival that starts school at 10:30. I guess it isn't all bad, but I rather have had another day off...

That is what happens when you go to one of the top public high schools in Illinois!  Education is #1...knowledge is Power down the road...

[Grizzcoat]

Not a lot of action on  the EURO. Not a lot of action on really any model. At least IA got a good snow event. I feel for those who have been pretty much shut out this season.

[East Dubzz]

The school im my town cancelled school yesterday because of the WCW. This morning it's a WCA, and nothing. Funny thing is, it's actually colder this morning.

[Tom]

I just did a neat trick if you want to try it today out in this bitter cold weather.  You can boil up some hot water and put it in a cup about 1/4 full, throw it up in the air and it turns into a cloud.  Nice little science project using the weather to your advantage!

[Tom]

I will be posting some interesting maps in about 30 minutes about the upcoming 20 days of Januar (gotta make my breakfast for Champions).  Winter is going to continue to rock and roll!

[Tom]

Overnight runs on 00z Euro Ensembles continue to show the evolution of the LRC's Split Flow pattern as we head beyond Jan 21st.  After a brief period of tranquil weather, the Pacific Jet Stream will begin to hammer parts of the west coast and allow juicy systems to hit the Rockies and then eventually eject out into the Central CONUS.  You can see this on the 500mb maps below.  Also, pay attn to the ridging beginning to hook up over the top near Alaska around the 21st, by the 23rd there is an Alaskan Ridge present and polar air will begin to infiltrate the pattern (unlike we saw in December).

 

The GFS is already beginning to show signals of this stormy pattern in the longer range and the Euro Ensembles are agreeing that this pattern should come into fruition.  Folks in the Plains, this will be your shot of seeing some wintry weather after the "January Thaw" when Winter reloads.

 

 

[NEJeremy]

I saw the storm on the 24th of January on the GFS. It's shown up on the 360-384 hour frames on a couple of runs the last couple of days. I have a feeling this is going to be the one!! Sure it's 2+ weeks away, but one of these times the model is going to be right!

[Geos]

-9° for the low this morning. Rose up to -4° by the time it got light out with the clouds that moved in quickly.

[Tom]

The part of the pattern where I busted on in December when I initially thought blocking would return, it didn't, and December ended up being a very warm month nation wide.  This time, I learned from my mistakes and will post the reasoning why it will return this time around in the LRC Cycle #3.  Back in October we saw upper latitude blocking and more sustained cold near the Lakes early on in the Autumn months.  This time around, as we are deeper into Winter, blocking becomes more prevalent.  

 

Signs of the AO/NAO tanking are now showing up in the modeling and its not a surprise to me since we are seeing significant warming in the upper atmosphere (some tend to disagree).  I'll show you the evidence.  Not only do we see warming at 30mb (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml)...we see warming at 10mb(see attachment below)

 

Do you guys remember the back loaded winter of 2012-13 or the winter of 2009-10???  Well, your seeing very similar comparisons in the upper atmosphere that happened in those winters.  I personally do not believe winter is over in Mid/Late February.  On the contrary, this winter has legs and will continue to deliver well into March (check out the December run on the JAMSTEC below).  I think February may end up worse than January for the nation as a whole.

 

As we close out this month, the glacier will continue to grow and many people on this forum will have a significant snow pack.  If you looked at the 12z GFS run today, you can see what I"m talking about regarding the blocking that is showing up.  Back in October, James and I commented about how fascinating it was too see so much blocking early on in the Autumn.  This is going to cycle back through and this is when storminess becomes very interesting from the Plains on East.

 

Courtesy of Joe D'Aleo, he posted on Wx Bell today a map of the 10mb temperature over the North Pole.  I have been talkign about this for several days now and how important this will be as we head deeper into Winter.  See below and this jump of nearly 50C over the Pole is the dagger to any talk of Spring coming early.  All global models including the GFS/EURO/GGEM now showing the AO/NAO heading towards neutral/negative territory by the 21st/22nd.  December had a blimp in the winter pattern, but I believe this is just the beginning of what could be a 3 month period of nasty winter months ahead.

[Tom]

Last but not least, I'll comment about the new JMA Weeklies that came in last night.  First, I'll start off by showing you the Old Week #2 forecast and compare it now to the current Week #1 forecast.  The model actually is going to bust because it didn't see the cold over the northern Tier of states over the coming week.  Last week, it had a pretty big ridge over the central/east which ain't happening.

 

Looking out into Week #2, last week the model saw the NW NAMER ridge, this week it is completely opposite  See below the models idea of troughing hugging the NW NAMER coast.  Big difference, right???  Correct.  The oceans rule the planet's weather and when a model has to figure out what to do with that energy, it comes up with it's hypothesis.  To me, I can see why the model thinks there will be a trough.  Well, the LRC explains it bc we will begin to see a LOT more Pacific energy to swing into the U.S.  However, it will eventually become a Split Flow pattern and I think the model is missing the blocking over Alaska like the Euro Ensembles are seeing.  Now, I think next week it will change again and show more of an Alaskan ridge.

 

Alright, enough posting...time to get some work done.

[Tom]

06z GFS Ensembles starting to hone in on the ridge beginning to lock over the top Day 12-15...

[Tom]

Blizzard Warnings posted for N IA....

[Tom]

You know what they say, "Great Minds Think Alike"...my comments earlier today when I posted back around Noon today regarding the upcoming pattern and where the winter is heading overall, I just read JB's post on Wx Bell.  Look what he has to say...

 

 

 

January 8 02:37 PM

 

The southern plains has been the object of our cold idea when we put this out and more snow and ice is on the way. Get used to it, this winter has a long way to go. IMO the Euro 500 mb is supporting strongly the weatherbell.com idea that this winter has legs into Spring. I will post on that a bit later

 

He posted this at 1:39pm CST....

 

 

One more thing. I mentioned a paper by Nemias on the winters in the late 1970s. I was digging in more on this matter and found Nemias did a lot of research on the "strange" winter of 1957-1958 which was remembered for its severity after the mid point. The difference here is that we will not be as mild since the cold of early January is well on its way over the nation's Heartland to wiping out what warmth December left us (remember is was not 5-8°C above normal, it was more like 1-4°C).

So, we are like this right now (notice the normal showing up, again a week of cold and a lot of that area will be at or below normal by the 15th):

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_8xX5VVfk1F.gif

Now look at the same period in 1957-1958:

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_xRmsifNr4S.gif

Look from mid-January to mid-March:

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_xiGCSdZLUG.gif

1978 was worse:

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/compday_JwZbvAZxyM.gif

Now I may be looking for friends in low places, but the more I look at what Nemias was up to and what is out there this year, the more I think the modeling mayhem is a product of a pattern that has been seen before (but not by the models).

 

[Tom]

CPC's 8-14 Precip Outlook looking good for moisture supply about when the pattern begins to reload Week 2 into 3...it also correlates well with the LRC when Pacific systems jump into the pattern.  Exciting times ahead.

[Maxim]

JB is a weenie

[Tom]

JB is a weenie

Not really, he is just passionate about the weather.  He is very skilled at recognizing patterns on the technical level just as I am.  I've learned a lot of valuable tools from following him over the years.

[gabel23]

You know what they say, "Great Minds Think Alike"...my comments earlier today when I posted back around Noon today regarding the upcoming pattern and where the winter is heading overall, I just read JB's post on Wx Bell.  Look what he has to say...

 

 

He posted this at 1:39pm CST....

The winter of 1977-78 fits our area almost to a tee. At least for Lincoln; between 3-4" of snow for November, December and January. The month of February produced 13.8" and March produced 5.7". We shall see, I'm currently looking at a snow depth of 3" that has shrunk a little bit from today and will continue to do so with the thaw coming up. Season total is around 10" and  I'm hoping to see one monster before the season ends. I must say though even though we have been nickel and dimed this year it's still way better, at least in my area, than last year! 

[Niko]

My high temps today did not get out of the single digits. Currently at 4F. WCF @ -13F. Its a brutal day.

[Meichel]

Thanks for all your insight and work Tom! I appreciate all that you do around here, and hopefully I'm learning something. It's peculiar to me how so many in here are so quick to point out other's errors without explaining their own points of view.

 

You know what they say, f__k the haters.

[Maxim]

Thanks for all your insight and work Tom! I appreciate all that you do around here, and hopefully I'm learning something. It's peculiar to me how so many in here are so quick to point out other's errors without explaining their own points of view.

 

You know what they say, f__k the haters.

You're denser than lead...

[tim the weatherman]

been hearing that according to dr cohen that by month's end and to open february we will have a negative ao thanks of the minor ssw that is if the polar vortex recovers so if that don't recovers that means we could be looking at mild temps from late month into early next month.

[Maxim]

been hearing that according to dr cohen that by month's end and to open february we will have a negative ao thanks of the minor ssw that is if the polar vortex recovers so if that don't recovers that means we could be looking at mild temps from late month into early next month.

So do you want winter to end or do you want winter to continue? Seemed like last month you were banking on extreme cold departures and above average snowfall. Now you're a warminista? 

[Meichel]

You're denser than lead...

 

And you're a genius, sunshine.

[Tom]

been hearing that according to dr cohen that by month's end and to open february we will have a negative ao thanks of the minor ssw that is if the polar vortex recovers so if that don't recovers that means we could be looking at mild temps from late month into early next month.

Euro Ensembles agree (even though it only goes out to the 23rd) and if you look at the Day 10 10mb/30mb maps below, you can see the warming occurring directly over the Pole and displacing the PV back into North America.  All of this is happening because of the reasoning I gave above and shouldn't be a surprise.  Good to hear Dr. Cohen concur on the SSW.

[Geos]

Your posts Tom are great insights. If anyone wants to predict a milder times ahead, throw up some images or charts telling why you think that.

 

That warming coming out of Asia is massive and it's pushing right into the Arctic. The polar vortex is at its strongest over the area above 75°N, any other place it weakens and usually splits up.

 

Personally, I don't think it will stay as cold as it is now all month. I think will have some 20s and 30s in the next couple weeks. Not really seeing anything to indicate a torch or anything. If anything I believe will see a February thaw - but usually most of the Midwest does in that month.

 

A balmy 16° here at 10:30pm!

[Tom]

So now NOAA is backing off the El NINO????  Come on U.S. Gov't, can't you get something right???  I thought it was supposed to be a Super NINO???  Now since they can't push their agenda (a warming planet) might as well tell the truth.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2015010900/noram/eps_mslpa_noram_51.png

[Tom]

After a mini "January Thaw", the pattern becomes more active as we head towards the final 10 days of January.  I've been monitoring the Jan 21st-23rd period to kick start a colder/stormier regime.  Since one of the analogs for this Winter is 1977-78, it would make sense to look back to that year and compare it to the pattern the models are foreseeing to close out this month.  Here is a Wikipedia on that historical storm (Jan 25th-27th):  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1978

 

There are several indicators of a storm developing out of the Gulf Coast States around the 21st-23rd.  I'll post below the 00z Euro Ensembles 500mb pattern and Mean MSLP.  You will notice lower heights near the Gulf Coast on 00z 21st and the MSLP Mean near IN/OH at 12z 21st.  Euro Control also showing something in that time frame.

 

Now, this is not the only indicator I'm using.  If you follow the East Asian Theory, the GFS has been trying to hint at a storm developing near southern Japan around the 16th (albeit minimal at this point) and if you add 6-10 days it comes close to this time frame.  I'm trying to see if the LRC comes to mind but haven't looked back yet to find a comparison.  

 

Here were the teleconnections back on January 25th 1978:

AO Index: 1978 25 -1.081

NAO Indes: 1978 25 -0.262

 

Global Ensembles are indicating that the AO/NAO are expected to drop back towards neutral, maybe even negative territory during this period which would be great to spin up and phase a nice storm.  Let's hope these trends continue.  Also, if your looking for a Cutter, you want the PNA to be neutral/slightly negative and that index is supposed to trend towards that as well.  Obviously this storm is 10+ days away and so many variables on the table that have to be worked out.  Nonetheless, I find it fascinating that if you look back in history you can find answers or clues to predict a pattern in our future.  The weather is cyclical in nature and if you can recognize a pattern, you will have success predicting  for the future.

 

[Tom]

From Phil Schwarz:

Man it's been cold this January. Average temperature so far this month is 13.2 which is 10.8 degrees below normal. We are on pace to the coldest January since 1982.

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, I am liking the looks of the 12Z GFS and it backs up what you are saying about the 21-23 of January.  It looks like potential of something big somewhere in the middle of the nation.  Of course I really like where this model is putting down a storm, come on Colorado Low.

[Tom]

Tom, I am liking the looks of the 12Z GFS and it backs up what you are saying about the 21-23 of January.  It looks like potential of something big somewhere in the middle of the nation.  Of course I really like where this model is putting down a storm, come on Colorado Low.

Anyone from the Plains to the Lakes seems to be in line for a storm system to track.   It all depends on where this system ejects out of the Rockies and with the jet stream reaching its peak intensity late Jan/early Feb, interesting times ahead.

[Niko]

From Accu-weather:

 

Something to keep an eye on this weekend.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_01091702_hd20-1.jpg

[winterfreak]

We've been in line for storms to track and none of them have panned out. Sitting on three inches this season. I hope the end of the month shows some pop. Cold and dry is boring.

[Trinomial]

18z 4km NAM definitely came north with the Sunday storm. Gets Chicago and southern Kane into the mix.

[Tom]

Bingo...12z Euro ensembles really starting to amplify the NW NAMER ridge Day 11-15 with storms to start rolling on through the central CONUS/LAKES region right around the 21st.  Look at that Blob of red that begins developing in the NE Pacific...does it remind you of a pattern last year???   I'm starting to see a significant arctic outbreak (worse than we just experienced recently) to close out January.  If historical patterns of the past can guide us, then a major storm potential prior to this outbreak is very real.

 

Notice the PV placement to the north of Hudson Bay....

 

On a side note, when I look at the Euro Ensembles and see how expansive this ridge the model see's developing, I begin to question it, why???  Well, we have yet to see such a massive ridge develop this year to this magnitude and this year's LRC certainly doesn't have anything like it as well.  However, I just took a look at the SST's in the NE Pacific and I begin to find answers.  Notice the pool of warm waters expanding even farther westward off the west coast and some of the cooler waters that were there in mid December are now gone...BUT, now the waters have cooled south of the Aleutian Islands.  So there may be some credibility in the Euro ensembles to see such a huge ridge develop in the NE Pacific.

 

If you can get that Aleutian Low to develop SW of Alaska, Boom, that will just pump the Alaskan Ridge and you can just see this pattern  lock into Spring.

[Tom]

18z 4km NAM definitely came north with the Sunday storm. Gets Chicago and southern Kane into the mix.

Same track bud...no difference, this will be a Kankakee, IL on south snow system.  Just don't see Chicago getting any snow, maybe some light snow.