Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Ahh come on man you know that's not true. Not like the GOM just cuts off at the Missouri River. 

 

During the winter it seems to have greater affects, precip is more boom or bust in the Plains for sure.  There's a reason droughts are more prevalent there, esp in recent years.  Omaha averages less than 30" of snow (I know we've been over this, though).  It seems like they have a terrific year once every three or four, then a poor couple years.  2009-10, 2012-13 are a couple examples, guess that means next year will follow suit in the pattern one can hope!

[winterfreak]

Average is more like 18-20" at KCI and more than that at my locale. We've had like two inches up to this point. No end in sight lol just the way it's gone this year. Just hope it doesn't turn into another prolonged dryspell ala 11-12.

[centralweather44]

Average is more like 18-20" at KCI and more than that at my locale. We've had like two inches up to this point. No end in sight lol just the way it's gone this year. Just hope it doesn't turn into another prolonged dryspell ala 11-12.

I thought u picked up 5" back in December? Beginning of December?

[Jaycee]

Average is more like 18-20" at KCI and more than that at my locale. We've had like two inches up to this point. No end in sight lol just the way it's gone this year. Just hope it doesn't turn into another prolonged dryspell ala 11-12.

You guys have been blessed the past few years too. If we get another year like 2012... man. I would lose my s***. That was the WORST of the worst. 

 

During the winter it seems to have greater affects, precip is more boom or bust in the Plains for sure.  There's a reason droughts are more prevalent there, esp in recent years.  Omaha averages less than 30" of snow (I know we've been over this, though).  It seems like they have a terrific year once every three or four, then a poor couple years.  2009-10, 2012-13 are a couple examples, guess that means next year will follow suit in the pattern one can hope!

 

Yeah that's true. We did have some awesome years, esp 2009. I can't believe we're talking next year already. By that time I might be in Chicago since I'll finally be graduated so hopefully no more droughts for me!

[winterfreak]

I thought u picked up 5" back in December? Beginning of December?

No sir lol more like half that.

[Grizzcoat]

A little love for SE NE-

[winterfreak]

Canadian is super juicy but don't buy those snow totals for a second here. Looks like the East Coast looses their potential second significant storm as well.

[centralweather44]

It will be interesting to see where the Euro takes things

[Money]

GFS ensembles are north

 

someone from American:

 

Looking at AMwx model suite were all 21 members of the GEFS are available I would say about 14 are similar to the UKIE in some fashion, one even clocks MSP

[Tom]

This accurately describes what Chicago does to Nebraska every storm

 

http://www.gifbin.com/bin/062013/1370886029_kill_steals_baseball_from_girl.gif

I'll take the blonde...haha, nice one!

[bud2380]

[Money]

Euro is def. heading north this run. 

[IAWXFan1]

Euro is def. heading north this run. 

 

Are you defining the surface low, precipitation or another measure?

[Money]

Surface low forming in SE Kansas at HR 54 according to someone on American. Said this will be an "amped" up run

[Tom]

00z Euro hits Omaha/SE NE...this run is much more juicier and IA/N MO getting hit hard thru 54hr...

[Money]

1006 L or so in S. Indiana at HR 72

[Tom]

00z Euro...C IL/N MO may have mixing issues initially on the Euro.  Don't take this map per vatim...holy juiciness on the Euro....

[bud2380]

Euro is wet. Looks real good

[Money]

One more bump north and it's golden. 3-4 would be fine by me

[Tom]

This storm is looking stacked...Euro model is the slowest of all of them...keeps it snowing through 6pm for most of us here on Sunday.

[Tom]

One more bump north and it's golden. 3-4 would be fine by me

From nada yesterday, to a whole new fresh blanket of snow....

[Money]

From nada yesterday, to a whole new fresh blanket of snow....

 

The difference from 0z last night to 0z tonight is laughable. Especially with how good EURO usually is in the 3-4 day range

[centralweather44]

Euro and Canadian look to be on their own vs. the other models. At least here in SE Nebraska.

[dubuque473]

Hear it shows around 7 for me....

[Snowlover76]

Wow. 6+ on the Euro. Didn't see that coming.

[IAWXFan1]

Does anyone know the best maps to look at when trying to find the northern and southern streams? Thank you. 

[Money]

Bufkit totals are insane.

 

Showing 18-20:1 ratios in Milwaukee

[Snowlover76]

Euro and Canadian look to be on their own vs. the other models. At least here in SE Nebraska.

Having the Euro on our side is a huge plus IMO.

[Money]

150201/0300Z 51 05011KT 26.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
150201/0600Z 54 05015KT 22.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
150201/0900Z 57 05015KT 19.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0
150201/1200Z 60 06015KT 18.4F SNOW 15:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150201/1500Z 63 06015KT 16.6F SNOW 17:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 15:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0
150201/1800Z 66 05015KT 16.8F SNOW 20:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 16:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0
150201/2100Z 69 05015KT 16.1F SNOW 20:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 17:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0
150202/0000Z 72 04014KT 15.3F SNOW 19:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 17:1| 5.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/0300Z 75 02013KT 14.6F SNOW 21:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 18:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
150202/0600Z 78 36013KT 12.5F SNOW 30:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 18:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0
150202/0900Z 81 34013KT 6.5F SNOW 26:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 19:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
150202/1200Z 84 33010KT 2.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 19:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/1500Z 87 32008KT 2.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 19:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 0| 0| 0

 

 

Chicago:

 

150201/0300Z 51 04006KT 27.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
150201/0600Z 54 06010KT 28.3F SNOW 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
150201/0900Z 57 06017KT 24.9F SNOW 9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0
150201/1200Z 60 07018KT 22.2F SNOW 12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 10:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150201/1500Z 63 07019KT 21.6F SNOW 16:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082 12:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
150201/1800Z 66 07019KT 21.1F SNOW 18:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0
150201/2100Z 69 05020KT 19.7F SNOW 20:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 14:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
150202/0000Z 72 04019KT 17.9F SNOW 24:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 14:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150202/0300Z 75 03016KT 17.1F SNOW 20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 15:1| 8.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0
150202/0600Z 78 02014KT 17.0F SNOW 29:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 15:1| 8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.57 100| 0| 0
150202/0900Z 81 35014KT 14.8F SNOW 27:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 16:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 100| 0| 0
150202/1200Z 84 33015KT 7.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 16:1| 9.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59 0| 0| 0

[Money]

http://i.imgur.com/FfEJfF3.png

[Tom]

Euro and Canadian look to be on their own vs. the other models. At least here in SE Nebraska.

It's funny bc last night it was the complete opposite...Canadian vs the "World"...Grizzcoat made a comment about that...

[Tom]

http://i.imgur.com/FfEJfF3.png

In my book, I'd call that a Major Snowstorm...do you remember who was doubting that would happen?

 

IMO, I think the key here is the -AO which is driving the northern jet/energy farther south and phasing it with the southern stream earlier each run.  It was a good call to never give up on this one.

[Money]

Looking back at this thread and people calling storm cancel because of the 84 hr nam was pretty funny.

[winterfreak]

One inch of slush for the win.

[Tom]

I'm sure there will be some interesting AFD's tonight coming out of the NWS offices.  They may wait till tomorrow afternoon to issue any advisories/watches.

[Grizzcoat]

UK MET--- similar to the EUro---

[Money]

Another uptick in the SREF Plumes

 

Chicago:

 

21z: Mean: 5.99  High: 21.25  Low: 0.25  3 members above 8

03z: Mean: 7.67  High: 14.96  Low 0.80 14 members above 8

 

Milwaukee:

 

21z: Mean: 5.00  High: 19.54 Low: 0.50  5 members above 6

03z: Mean: 6.23  High: 15.32  Low: 1.23 9 members above 6

[Money]

Sounds like EURO ensembles are pretty far north from it's 12z run with .75 QPF line reaching Chicago. 

[Money]

6z NAM continued the N trend. 8-12 for Chicago this run. 6 for Milwaukee/Madison.

 

5+ for all of Iowa. 1-2 for NE

[Money]

4K NAM takes the L just south of Chicago

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015013006/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_20.png