Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[Tom]

12z WRF total precip...getting really juicy....still snowing lakeside up near MKE and NE IL...this is prob when the LES really starts to kick in.

[Tom]

NAM/WRF model's showing near blizzard conditions for counties adjacent to the lake.  Probably will be concentrated only within a few miles of the lake though.

[Tom]

Does anyone know what time it's looking to start and stop in the Chicago area? Are we talking late Saturday night? Thanks.

Start time around 9pm Sat thru 5-6pm Sunday...very long duration snow event lining up.

[Money]

GFS about the same as 06z except that the northern edge is a bit farther south. Really riding the line between 0 and 4-5 on GFS up in Central WI 

[Tom]

12z GFS...model consistency continues....I think we may be seeing WSW posted early this afternoon.

[Maxim]

GFS is too dry in my opinion. It's an obvious outlier.

[winterfreak]

No more complaining from Great Lake people after this one.

[Scott26]

GFS is too dry in my opinion. It's an obvious outlier.

It's only a bit drier than the NAM

[Maxim]

It's only a bit drier than the NAM

Not really, and the Euro is much wetter.

[BigDizBliz420]

We'll see if the GFS ensembles are wetter

[Tom]

It's only a bit drier than the NAM

It's actually a lot drier than the NAM...check it out...

[Money]

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015013012/I_nw_r1_EST_2015013012_041.png

[Money]

44

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015013012/I_nw_r1_EST_2015013012_044.png

[Money]

47

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015013012/I_nw_r1_EST_2015013012_047.png

[Tom]

^ Finally the 12z GGEM is coming back north....

[Scott26]

It's actually a lot drier than the NAM...check it out...

oh wow you are right.

[GDR]

The RGEM showing some love to se nebraska

[Tom]

12z RGEM...extremely juicy and only thru 12z Sunday....

[BigDizBliz420]

WSW from LOT for 6-8" more south of I88

[shakjen]

12z GFS...model consistency continues....I think we may be seeing WSW posted early this afternoon.

 

Or sooner

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGHSUNDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAYEVENING.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING  AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.* SNOW AMOUNTS...POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES NORTH OF  INTERSTATE 88...AND POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES SOUTH OF  INTERSTATE 88.* MAIN IMPACT...PERIODS OF SNOW COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITES  UNDER A MILE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS  TRAVEL CONDITIONS.* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE  AREA ON SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW.

[Snowlover76]

12z RGEM...extremely juicy and only thru 12z Sunday....

Yummy.

[Tom]

I think about half that in SE NE on the 12z RGEM is mixed/rain....

[Money]

UKIE

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif

[Money]

48

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

[Money]

60

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[BigDizBliz420]

ukie went a little south? still looks good

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Money]

ukie went a little south? still looks good

 

Looks like about 25-30 MM which is 1-1.2 QPF or so for ORD 

[Maxim]

ukie went a little south? still looks good

No it didn't....

[Snowlover76]

I think about half that in SE NE on the 12z RGEM is mixed/rain....

So those totals are overdone?

[Tom]

So those totals are overdone?

Yes, Wx Bell maps dont have the best algorithm's...temps look marginal out by your area. 

[Maxim]

That sub 1000 low though...

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16-1422636514_thumb.png

[Snowlover76]

Yes, Wx Bell maps dont have the best algorithm's...temps look marginal out by your area.

Damnit. I guess this is a 1-2" event here. Oh well.

[Money]

UKIE total through 72

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

[indianajohn]

WSW issued....

[Money]

JMA 72 hr precip

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2015013012/jma_apcpn_us_3.png

[Money]

Probably too early to post these but ARW/NMM both significantly wetter/north compared to 0z run so far through hr 33

[Tom]

High Rez models seem to be north of the Global models at this juncture...

[Money]

ARW

 

0z HR 48

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_048_sim_radar.gif

 

12z HR 36

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_036_sim_radar.gif