March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Maxim]

You can really see the pattern breaking down in the long-range, no denying that.

[Tom]

Cryptic???  First week of March, yes, pull back out of the extreme cold is inevitable after Week 1 it looks like.  Overall, this month will be below normal, possibly much below normal in our region.  Maybe not in the Plains where they will probably warm quite dramatically as the "warm" phase of the LRC kicks in.  Can't be that cold forever.

 

The latest JMA Weeklies agreeing with a generally cold Week 1 and then a pull back from the extreme cold Week 2.  You can see that it still is trying to show below normal temps from the Great Lakes and points north and east.

 

JMA Week 3 & 4 still showing a -EPO signature and below normal temps from the northern Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes.  For a model to see it cold this far out, it could trend colder as we get closer.

 

[gosaints]

Cryptic???  First week of March, yes, pull back out of the extreme cold is inevitable after Week 1 it looks like.  Overall, this month will be below normal, possibly much below normal in our region.  Maybe not in the Plains where they will probably warm quite dramatically as the "warm" phase of the LRC kicks in.  Can't be that cold forever.

 

The latest JMA Weeklies agreeing with a generally cold Week 1 and then a pull back from the extreme cold Week 2.  You can see that it still is trying to show below normal temps from the Great Lakes and points north and east.

 

JMA Week 3 & 4 still showing a -EPO signature and below normal temps from the northern Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes.  For a model to see it cold this far out, it could trend colder as we get closer.

You said record setting cold/snow

[Tom]

You said record setting cold/snow

Still on the table, depending on where that storm next week tracks and lays down the snow could produce record low temps for some in the region.

[gosaints]

Still on the table, depending on where that storm next week tracks and lays down the snow could produce record low temps for some in the region.

Oh I got you.  I thought you were talking month long temperature anamolies breaking records....  I majority of the forum could break 32 next week....

[Maxim]

We might break 40 on Tuesday depending on where the low tracks.

[FV-Mike]

With how cold this month has been getting to 40 will feel like 60. Also was a little surprised to see that 40 degrees is average for this time

[Grizzcoat]

current 00z GFS has sub 500 thickness levels on March 5th as far South as DSM--- wow

[Maxim]

GFS is showing 60s pushing into central IL by mid month.

[Tom]

LRC's warm phase showing up on the 12z Euro Ensembles....signs of Spring are around the corner?

[Tom]

10 Days ago the CFSv2 had this for March:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20150217.201503.gif

 

 

Now it has trended to this:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20150227.201503.gif

[Hawkeye]

I would love that (the mild Euro maps).  It has been a long winter and I'm ready for some spring warmth.  40s would feel like heat wave.

[Tom]

I would love that (the mild Euro maps).  It has been a long winter and I'm ready for some spring warmth.  40s would feel like heat wave.

Certainly would, but the Euro Ensembles have been flipping back and forth trying to figure out the 10-15 day range.  CFSv2 has been the most consistent.  It does show some warmth building back in around the 10th-15th, then back to much below normal weather.

[NEJeremy]

10 Days ago the CFSv2 had this for March:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20150217.201503.gif

 

 

Now it has trended to this:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20150227.201503.gif

So there goes the southeast ridge it looks like with the latest update, and back to what presumably would be northwest flow and cold. Great!

[Maxim]

the cfsv2 weeklies have been pretty awful recently.

[Maxim]

LRC's warm phase showing up on the 12z Euro Ensembles....signs of Spring are around the corner?

It's going to get mild at some point mid month. The question is how long.

[Maxim]

So there goes the southeast ridge it looks like with the latest update, and back to what presumably would be northwest flow and cold. Great!

That same model showed a torch for February I believe. How did that turn out?

[Tom]

00z GFS keeps the trough farther away from the west coast next week...result, deeper trough over the Lakes.  The beat goes on????  The reality its, SST's in the NE Pacific rule the weather pattern.  Will be interesting if the warmer look wins the battle near the Lakes.

[Tom]

the cfsv2 weeklies have been pretty awful recently.

Eh, I wouldn't say so.  I've been watching all 4 runs that come in each day and its been doing great this whole month.  A little back and forth over the past week but in general its been great.  Remember when I told you to watch the CFSv2 as we get closer to the Targe month of March and watch it get colder???  Today's run is the coldest yet for the Eastern CONUS.  It's been trending that way since mid February.

[gosaints]

Eh, I wouldn't say so. I've been watching all 4 runs that come in each day and its been doing great this whole month. A little back and forth over the past week but in general its been great. Remember when I told you to watch the CFSv2 as we get closer to the Targe month of March and watch it get colder??? Today's run is the coldest yet for the Eastern CONUS. It's been trending that way since mid February.

Ensembles continue to show a pattern change. 0z gfs flips it after clearing out the cold air after the early week storm. EPS seems much the same

[Maxim]

That cold shot for next week lasts for only two days. We go from teens for highs on Thursday to near 40 on Friday.

[Maxim]

Impressive that ORD got down to -10 this morning.

[FV-Mike]

ORD breaking a 131 year old record!

 

THE TEMPERATURE BOTTOMED OUT AT -10 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT
OHARE...SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 0 FOR FEBRUARY
28TH...SET IN 1884. THIS IS THE SECOND LATEST TEMPERATURE OF -10
OR COLDER IN CHICAGO. THE LATEST OCCURRED ON MARCH 4TH
1873...WHICH HAD A LOW OF -12 DEGREES.

THIS WAS THE 8TH OCCURRENCE OF SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH...WHICH IS TIED FOR THE 5TH MOST SUBZERO LOWS IN FEBRUARY ON
RECORD WITH 5 OTHER FEBRUARIES.
 

[Tom]

ORD breaking a 131 year old record!

 

THE TEMPERATURE BOTTOMED OUT AT -10 DEGREES THIS MORNING AT

OHARE...SHATTERING THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW OF 0 FOR FEBRUARY

28TH...SET IN 1884. THIS IS THE SECOND LATEST TEMPERATURE OF -10

OR COLDER IN CHICAGO. THE LATEST OCCURRED ON MARCH 4TH

1873...WHICH HAD A LOW OF -12 DEGREES.

 

THIS WAS THE 8TH OCCURRENCE OF SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES THIS

MONTH...WHICH IS TIED FOR THE 5TH MOST SUBZERO LOWS IN FEBRUARY ON

RECORD WITH 5 OTHER FEBRUARIES.

 

If we wouldn't have had that thaw a week after the Super Bowl Blizzard, I can't imagine how much colder February would have ended up being.  Even if we would have gotten a few more inches from a system after the Thaw it would have helped temps crash at night.  It's amazing what a fresh snow cover can do and light winds under an arctic high pressure.  ORD was 0.1F away from tying the all-time coldest February yesterday.  The -10F low last night may have pushed it above 1st place.  We'll see when the final #'s come in.

[Maxim]

If ORD stays below 21 today, then I think they end up 0.1 colder than the coldest February.

[NEJeremy]

Eh, I wouldn't say so.  I've been watching all 4 runs that come in each day and its been doing great this whole month.  A little back and forth over the past week but in general its been great.  Remember when I told you to watch the CFSv2 as we get closer to the Targe month of March and watch it get colder???  Today's run is the coldest yet for the Eastern CONUS.  It's been trending that way since mid February.

I thought there was some model that you showed recently that showed the fabled strong southeast ridge and southwest flow that would lead to an active and potentially snowy pattern for most of us on the board here in March. You know, the southeast ridge that has been nonexistent all winter despite models saying it's going to come?! Now the models are all back to showing a big west coast ridge and eastern trough, so cold and northwest flow again? That really hasn't worked out too well for most of us here, especially for any of us hoping to actually get a big storm and not just a bunch of clippers....

[Tom]

I thought there was some model that you showed recently that showed the fabled strong southeast ridge and southwest flow that would lead to an active and potentially snowy pattern for most of us on the board here in March. You know, the southeast ridge that has been nonexistent all winter despite models saying it's going to come?! Now the models are all back to showing a big west coast ridge and eastern trough, so cold and northwest flow again? That really hasn't worked out too well for most of us here, especially for any of us hoping to actually get a big storm and not just a bunch of clippers....

The SE has come into fruition.  You must be blind.  The March 1st-3rd system is obviously on the table to still produce snow in NE and your saying I was wrong about that?  Hello!  If it wasn't for the SE ridge this storm would have tracked way south.  If the SE is transitory, so be it.  Plus, earlier this month I was showing everyone what I saw in the models that a different look to the PNA was about to evolve.  I NEVER said that it will last throughout the entire month of March.  That must have been your own prerogative.  

 

Anyway, the "warm up" that is coming down the road is not a "flip" in the pattern that holds.  I don't see sustained warmth and there will be another push of cold later on in the month relative to the season.

[Maxim]

I thought there was some model that you showed recently that showed the fabled strong southeast ridge and southwest flow that would lead to an active and potentially snowy pattern for most of us on the board here in March. You know, the southeast ridge that has been nonexistent all winter despite models saying it's going to come?! Now the models are all back to showing a big west coast ridge and eastern trough, so cold and northwest flow again? That really hasn't worked out too well for most of us here, especially for any of us hoping to actually get a big storm and not just a bunch of clippers....

Yeah, definitely a cold northwest flow, LOL

 

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

[NEJeremy]

The SE has come into fruition.  You must be blind.  The March 1st-3rd system is obviously on the table to still produce snow in NE and your saying I was wrong about that?  Hello!  If it wasn't for the SE ridge this storm would have tracked way south.  If the SE is transitory, so be it.  Plus, earlier this month I was showing everyone what I saw in the models that a different look to the PNA was about to evolve.  I NEVER said that it will last throughout the entire month of March.  That must have been your own prerogative.  

 

Anyway, the "warm up" that is coming down the road is not a "flip" in the pattern that holds.  I don't see sustained warmth and there will be another push of cold later on in the month relative to the season.

I'm not saying "you" were wrong Tom, I'm just saying the model you showed I thought was for a sustained pattern of southwest flow with a southeast ridge for the month of March, I thought I saw a monthly model run, yet you just showed models that aren't showing that too be true. They've corrected back to the same pattern we've been in most of the winter. I apologize, I must not be remembering that that was only for a couple day period. Sorry I was WRONG.

 

Sure I see the change coming with the warmup in 10 days and right now for the next couple of days this storm moving through is in a southwest flow, but apparently that's not going to last and we are going to go back to the same pattern we have been locked in. Stop being so defensive Tom, you don't make the models, you're just showing them and I was just observing what the models have been showing.

 

You're last sentence stated exactly what I was trying to say, there's not going to be a flip in the pattern that lasts longer than a couple of days.

 

Sorry if it seemed like my "prerogative". Geesh

[Maxim]

I'm not saying "you" were wrong Tom, I'm just saying the model you showed I thought was for a sustained pattern of southwest flow with a southeast ridge for the month of March, I thought I saw a monthly model run, yet you just showed models that aren't showing that too be true. They've corrected back to the same pattern we've been in most of the winter. I apologize, I must not be remembering that that was only for a couple day period. Sorry I was WRONG.

 

Sure I see the change coming with the warmup in 10 days and right now for the next couple of days this storm moving through is in a southwest flow, but apparently that's not going to last and we are going to go back to the same pattern we have been locked in. Stop being so defensive Tom, you don't make the models, you're just showing them and I was just observing what the models have been showing.

 

You're last sentence stated exactly what I was trying to say, there's not going to be a flip in the pattern that lasts longer than a couple of days.

 

Sorry if it seemed like my "prerogative". Geesh

Where exactly are you seeing this?

[gosaints]

Where exactly are you seeing this?

Its not the same pattern not even close

[Tom]

I'm not saying "you" were wrong Tom, I'm just saying the model you showed I thought was for a sustained pattern of southwest flow with a southeast ridge for the month of March, I thought I saw a monthly model run, yet you just showed models that aren't showing that too be true. They've corrected back to the same pattern we've been in most of the winter. I apologize, I must not be remembering that that was only for a couple day period. Sorry I was WRONG.

 

Sure I see the change coming with the warmup in 10 days and right now for the next couple of days this storm moving through is in a southwest flow, but apparently that's not going to last and we are going to go back to the same pattern we have been locked in. Stop being so defensive Tom, you don't make the models, you're just showing them and I was just observing what the models have been showing.

 

You're last sentence stated exactly what I was trying to say, there's not going to be a flip in the pattern that lasts longer than a couple of days.

 

Sorry if it seemed like my "prerogative". Geesh

Sorry, but sometimes your wording seems like your trying to "call me out".  All good.

[NEJeremy]

Where exactly are you seeing this?

 

 

Its not the same pattern not even close

 

Huh? The model runs that Tom just showed that show the ridge along the west coast and the east coast trough which he just said is showing signs of backing further and further west. Translation- the same pattern we've been in almost all winter. Sure right now we're in a zonal to southwest flow and again we're going to have a brief warmup, but the models he showed show it reverting back to what it's been almost this whole winter. Not sure what you're missing here. Look at post #211 towards the top of this page showing a model run for the month of March. Look familiar for this winter?

[Maxim]

Huh? The model runs that Tom just showed that show the ridge along the west coast and the east coast trough which he just said is showing signs of backing further and further west. Translation- the same pattern we've been in almost all winter. Sure right now we're in a zonal to southwest flow and again we're going to have a brief warmup, but the models he showed show it reverting back to what it's been almost this whole winter. Not sure what you're missing here. Look at post #211 towards the top of this page showing a model run for the month of March. Look familiar for this winter?

lol, you should learn more about weather

[Tom]

12z Euro 240hr from yesterday's run vs today's new 216 HR...trough backing farther west.  This has been the story with the models over the last month.  Extremely warms waters in the NE Pacific are wrecking havoc on the modeling and wanting to put a trough where there should be a ridge of HP.  At one point there down the road, there will be a time where a storm or two will traverse the NE Pacific to allow a ridge to form in the Eastern CONUS.

[Maxim]

those images won't open

[Tom]

Now with the PNA heading back towards neutral/positive territory around the 9th, I'm wondering how much of an effect that will have on temps near the Lakes.

[NEJeremy]

lol, you should learn more about weather

Right dude- Thanks for the advice. I'll get right on that since you know so much about me. Thanks for the laugh though!!

[NEJeremy]

those images won't open

They work for me, you should get a new computer or phone

[Maxim]

Right dude- Thanks for the advice. I'll get right on that since you know so much about me. Thanks for the laugh though!!

Take a look at the maps I posted earlier. Does that at all resemble the pattern we have seen this entire month?