March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Boy, 12z Euro Ensembles trending colder Day 10-15.  Below you can see the Day 10-15 Mean 500mb pattern below.  Notice that sneaky "east based" Greenland Block starting to come into the picture.

 

I think you're about the only one rooting for more cold in March.  Why aren't you just looking forward to spring?

[Tom]

I think you're about the only one rooting for more cold in March.  Why aren't you just looking forward to spring?

Just stating the facts...one of the big reason's why I'll be heading somewhere warm next month.  Spring around here won't be pretty.  I'll be looking forward to be sitting poolside in sunny AZ next month while I see posts of Spring snows on this forum!

[Tom]

00z GFS is insane for KS....

[james1976]

Nice high pressure just sitting there ruining everything for a north trend

[Tom]

Might start a separate Thread for this system that looks to be over a period of 2-3 days....looking interesting

[Tom]

Nice high pressure just sitting there ruining everything for a north trend

Not so fast, this may eventually become a 2-part system....1st piece on Sat/Sun, then a stronger one on Mon/Tue...

[CentralNebWeather]

Come north young man. Gfs 00z is spreading the love again to southern half of Nebraska. Map looking similar to 4 days ago. Wow. Just when I try to go to sleep gfs wakes me.

[Tom]

00z GFS trying to phase the energy left back in the SW as it ejects out into the Plains.  About this time is when the Euro had the NAO head towards neutral.  Might have some notable blocking to slow and allow this system to dig.

[james1976]

Not so fast, this may eventually become a 2-part system....1st piece on Sat/Sun, then a stronger one on Mon/Tue...

i havent seen the mon/tue system yet. the run isnt out that far....not on the NOAA site anyway

[james1976]

Love having multiple systems to track. Been a while.

[Tom]

i havent seen the mon/tue system yet. the run isnt out that far....not on the NOAA site anyway

Here you go...

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks tom. Let's spread this to everyone.

[james1976]

KANSAS 

[Money]

The 2nd piece:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_165_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

NOW i see the 2nd system......
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_159_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[james1976]

Very active pattern setting up.

[james1976]

Can someone post a snow map after the 2nd system is done? Thanks

[Money]

All of Iowa is in the 14+ range by the time the 3rd system is done (clipper, 1st, 2nd) 

[Grizzcoat]

On phone-- loving the trends--- people will REALLY be bitching if the above comes true.   SPREAD THE WHITE LOVE!!

[Tom]

Started a Thread for the 3/1 - 3/3 system...

[Iowawx]

Could be rain with the 3rd storm it seems.

[tim the weatherman]

hope it will be nice in arizona and florida for spring traning for the mlb because spring training has started now.

[Tom]

hope it will be nice in arizona and florida for spring traning for the mlb because spring training has started now.

FL looks golden with the SE Ridge, AZ may have some storm systems here and there but that is expected in early March.

[Tom]

Classic -EPO look on the 00z GFS...Ol' Man Winter ain't letting go anytime soon this year.  If that -NAO develops stronger and holds, good luck seeing any signs of Spring.  Depending on where the storm track sets up next week..some ppl in the Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes may not get above 32F till mid March.

 

Now the 00z GFS starting to see the Greenland Block....

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Just stating the facts...one of the big reason's why I'll be heading somewhere warm next month.  Spring around here won't be pretty.  I'll be looking forward to be sitting poolside in sunny AZ next month while I see posts of Spring snows on this forum!

 

Are you in retirement already?  How do you have this flexibility?

[Yerf]

Total snowfall between now and Sunday night from the GFS

 

 

 

[Tom]

Woah, overnight runs of the GFS/EURO now showing a -AO/NAO developing as we roll into March along with a consistently -EPO.  We haven't had this type of Trio all season long and to see them mirage together in March could spell a memorable month.  If everything aligns just right, we could be seeing another record setting March for cold/snow.  March '58 repeat????

[Niko]

Might have another repeat year next year if the JAMSTEC is right....cooler than normal SST's hugging the East Coast would suggest a trough.  Another fast start to winter is on the table next season with these SST's.

Sounds good to me, as long as December will not be a blowtorch like last year of 2014. Not a flake to be seen and temps felt like it was October or early November. A waste of a winter month down the toilet.

[Tom]

The Easter Bunny may be burrowing through snow this year!  CFSv2 continues to show a chill 45 day period and a much below normal pattern to open April.  Wouldn't be surprised if Opening Day for baseball season is a chilly one.

[Tom]

What a pattern if this unfolds the way the 12z Euro Ensembles are seeing it.  Day 8 (next arctic blast), Day 12 and Day 15 show a continuation of Winter weather.  Classic Greenland Block develops Day 12-15.  This month may get pretty wild as we roll on through March.  I think a lot of us are going to endure a March never seen in years to be quite honest.  If your a winter weather fan and love meteorology, the way the atmosphere is setting up this month is quiet amazing.

[Tom]

I'm wondering how the Super Bowl storm develops in the LRC's 4th cycle this month.  Target period is sometime mid month when models are showing some good blocking around that time frame.  Another Blizzard repeat????

[Maxim]

Woah, overnight runs of the GFS/EURO now showing a -AO/NAO developing as we roll into March along with a consistently -EPO.  We haven't had this type of Trio all season long and to see them mirage together in March could spell a memorable month.  If everything aligns just right, we could be seeing another record setting March for cold/snow.  March '58 repeat????

What was so special about March 1958? If you're talking about a March 1960 repeat, then there's 0 chance of that happening ever again for the CONUS.

[Tom]

What was so special about March 1958? If you're talking about a March 1960 repeat, then there's 0 chance of that happening ever again for the CONUS.

It's one of the top coldest March's in recent memory for alot of the Central CONUS.  JB is using that year along with 1960 as one of his analogs and Climate Models are pointing to something similar.  

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cd73_52_79_128_50_12_56_9_prcp.png

 

Maxim, anything is possible and saying there is a 0% chance of that happening isn't wise.  You wouldn't be a good gambler if that was the case.  Last year ORD ended up having the coldest Nov-Mar on Record and nobody believed it would happen, it did.  This year our Winter is obviously back loaded with snow/cold.  For goodness sakes, we are breaking 75+ year records and might break another 131 year old record Saturday morning!

[Maxim]

It's one of the top coldest March's in recent memory for alot of the Central CONUS.  JB is using that year along with 1960 as one of his analogs and Climate Models are pointing to something similar.  

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cd73_52_79_128_50_12_56_9_prcp.png

 

Maxim, anything is possible and saying there is a 0% chance of that happening isn't wise.  You wouldn't be a good gambler if that was the case.  Last year ORD ended up having the coldest Nov-Mar on Record and nobody believed it would happen, it did.  This year our Winter is obviously back loaded with snow/cold.  For goodness sakes, we are breaking 75+ year records and might break another 131 year old record Saturday morning!

Well sure, anything is possible. It's technically possible that the Earth could crash into the sun tomorrow, but to suggest that this March could possibly end up as a March 1960 redux is like saying one of us could win the lottery next week. Sure, it's possible, but the likelihood of it happening is extremely low. March 1960 was by far the coldest and most severe March for a good chunk of the CONUS. It was essentially the opposite of March 2012 (which will also probably never happen again.) March 1960 had persistent blocking on a different level. The pattern kept repeating, whether it be from a Scandinavian block or another type of block form. There were many occasions of snow falling in the deep south. The cold-air damming was recurrent too. It was so strong that it allowed snow to be predominant a couple times down into the Carolinas, and not ice. Freezing rain also reached the coast of Georgia and SC. There was also at least one storm that turned into a 970 mb nor'easter (March 4), along with many instances of clippers and disturbances/ULL that moved through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic that would drop measurable snow. Can't forget about that split-flow pattern and massive high pressure ridges straight from Canada that dominated mid-month too.

 

Once again, even suggesting that a repeat of that month may occur for March of 2015 would be pretty unwise IMO.

[Tom]

I said a repeat of March 1958 NOT 1960...but thanks anyway for the detailed explanation of the weather pattern in March 1960.

[Maxim]

I said a repeat of March 1958 NOT 1960...but thanks anyway for the detailed explanation of the weather pattern in March 1960.

Oh, I realize that. I'm just saying that it WOULD be unwise if you (or anyone for that matter) were holding your breath for a repeat of 1960. I don't have enough information about March 1958, so can't say anything about that.

[Niko]

I said a repeat of March 1958 NOT 1960...but thanks anyway for the detailed explanation of the weather pattern in March 1960.

Your probably like...what the heck??!! Am I writing French here?!

[gosaints]

GFS back to craptastic in the long range i see.  Signs of a real pattern change.  Just a mirage I am sure

[gosaints]

HMMM GFS ensembles look blah and average as far as temps go to.  Not sure about the cryptic cold call

[Maxim]

HMMM GFS ensembles look blah and average as far as temps go to.  Not sure about the cryptic cold call

yeah, I'm not seeing a torch, but not sure what was up with those hyped up cold calls. Looks pretty average to me.