March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Snowlover76]

Hopefully this weekend event delivers and cancels class on Monday.  I have 2 tests that day, and it'd be real nice to have them both moved so I can enjoy my weekend. 

[Tom]

00z GFS showing more snow in KS this run...more widespread for the weekend system...what do you think, should we start a Thread for this system???  It seems more and more likely there will be a system that develops somewhere in the central CONUS.  That way we can keep things "clean" in the general discussions.

[Tom]

00z GFS...still snowing in IL/IN/MI...

[Money]

GFS staying pretty consistent. Wait until the 0z runs tonight before you make a thread tho

[Tom]

GFS staying pretty consistent. Wait until the 0z runs tonight before you make a thread tho

Probably wait till tomorrow...

[NEJeremy]

GFS is going further and further south it seems with each run for this weekend

[CentralNebWeather]

I say start it Tom. Want to do some good tracking this week. Local mets already mentioning the potential.

[james1976]

Wow, thats a big jump south. Definitely hating that. Hopefully a north trend begins but each run keeps going south.

[james1976]

I went from 20" this morning to 4" this run. Lmao. Not that I was expecting the 6z run to verify, but it sure was nice to see.

[winterfreak]

Take the Oz and run. Wish we could get a massive spread the wealth system for everyone. We all deserve it at this point.

[james1976]

There's your jackpot Winterfreak

[Tom]

The storm showing up on the 3rd/4th is correlating pretty well with the system hitting Japan on the 26th.  Looks like a pretty potent system, however, doesn't look like it is hat organized yet on the runs we have seen so far.  However, it looks to get darn cold once the storm departs.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_asia_066_1000_500_thick.gif

[Tom]

3 Storm systems are to hit Japan over the next 7-10 days which would open this month up with the potential of seeing 3-4 storms (including this weekends system) through March 10th-12th.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

3 Storm systems are to hit Japan over the next 7-10 days which would open this month up with the potential of seeing 3-4 storms (including this weekends system) through March 10th-12th.

 

Looked pretty boring on the GFS Ensembles after this first storm to open up March (and even this one is coming into question).

[Tom]

Thought I'd post the Euro Weeklies NAO/EPO/PNA forecast over the next 30 days.  SE Ridge should continue throughout the month along with ridging off the west coast with a pretty consistent -EPO.  Although, it does pull back for a period of 7-10 days around the 7th-14th.  JB has been mentioning that in Winter's like the one we are experiencing now, late season blocking develops near Greenland.  The Euro Ensembles are showing the NAO head back towards neutral sometime mid month.  Will be interesting how this affects the weather pattern as we move forward.

[Tom]

I never thought the weekend storm would turn into a wound up system.  Nonetheless, 00z Euro still showing a system but following the GFS and got weaker this run.

[Tom]

00z Euro threw a curve ball this run and stalls the frontal boundary and leaves behind a secondary piece of energy in the southern Midwest.  This is turn develops into a SLP that rides up the boundary towards S IL/IN and dumps more snowfall.  Tons of moisture showing up.

[Hawkeye]

The interaction between the northern and southern streams will flop around on the models all week.  Speeding up one piece of energy and slowing down another can change a lot.

[Tom]

Now that is a temperature gradient...late season arctic air pushing up against Spring time warmth towards Day 9-10.  Pretty active pattern setting up over the next 10+ days.  The -PNA is certainly doing its job.

[Grizzcoat]

I don't think I have ever seen the EURO as active-- lost count at 4-5 storms. As mentioned-- it will likely go back and forth -- but WOW-- what potential!!!

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the 00z Euro is south and weak with the first system this weekend, but it parks the sharp baroclinic zone just to our southeast for days.  I'd love to see a 240 hr precip total map just for giggles.

[Grizzcoat]

[ToastedRavs]

Nice!  I am right on the 14/15 inch line.  And that's at 10:1 ratios which means I can add another 25-40% most likely on top of that.  Looks like some fun times for many of us here in Iowa and overall the MW.  Now if we could only make this map pan out. 

[ToastedRavs]

And, I wish I was in Washington, IA.  Not only home to the hottest burger in the country, but also bullseye for this storm if it pans out this way.  The Hellraiser burger at some restaurant was featured on the news tonight...that's the only reason I know about the hottest burger.

[ToastedRavs]

I don't think I have ever seen the EURO as active-- lost count at 4-5 storms. As mentioned-- it will likely go back and forth -- but WOW-- what potential!!!

 

 

Hey Grizz---long time.  Anyways, if things work out we could come close to being in the top ten snowiest March months within the first week!  Crazy.  16" will get us in the top ten.  And yes, I am being greedy

[james1976]

6z GFS looks weak and south.

[GDR]

Wagons south! Oh well looked great for a while.

[CentralNebWeather]

Need the northwest trend

[FV-Mike]

Off of Tim McGill's twitter for the Chicago Area.

[Yerf]

GFS snowfall

 

 

[Snowshoe]

GFS snowfall

 

B-m2dOfUcAAdjAY.png

That pretty much sums up where the snows have been all winter. Cold and dry from Fargo to Minneapolis over to Green Bay.

[Maxim]

Off of Tim McGill's twitter for the Chicago Area.

1-4" from lake effect snows? Possible, but 4" is unlikely. 4-8" seems pretty bullish for the weekend system.

[FV-Mike]

1-4" from lake effect snows? Possible, but 4" is unlikely. 4-8" seems pretty bullish for the weekend system.

For the weekend storm anything is still possible being that it is 120hr+ out. Yesterday everyone thought it was going north. Now it is going south. Still think there is a lot of moisture to work with.

[GDR]

The DGEX is way south right now. Giving most on the forum just an inch or two.

[Maxim]

Why anyone would mention the DGEX is beyond me.

[Tom]

12z GFS...Winterfreak is gonna "Freak" when he see's this one...bullseye not too far from him...

[Iowawx]

Just as I thought, it's getting weaker in our area. 2 inches from this is pathetic.

[Hawkeye]

The models are hanging more of the western energy out west with each run.  The 12z GFS now has a nice-looking upper low over the sw conus that could be a major player next week.

[GDR]

I think iowa should enjoy the clipper because the weekend storm is going to miss you guys too the south.

[educatorjen]

When are the next runs?