March 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Interesting write-up on Wx Bell from JB using the SST's in March 2015 vs March 2012:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/sst_anom_seasonal_sm.gif

 

 

vs.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/prescomp_W87d8bd3MF.png

 

 

It will be quiet interesting to see if the SST's in the Pacific that caused a record warm March 2012, do the complete opposite in 2015. Just look at it, almost complete opposite of where we stand now.

[FV-Mike]

Interesting note from Tim McGill @WGN

 

"Boston's astounding month of snow a 1-26,315 year occurrence"

[Maxim]

Interesting note from Tim McGill @WGN

 

"Boston's astounding month of snow a 1-26,315 year occurrence"

How exactly do they calculate that?

[FV-Mike]

How exactly do they calculate that?

Here is the Washington Post article with more details

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/25/bostons-astounding-month-of-snow-a-1-in-26315-year-occurrence/

[winterfreak]

Grand total of one inch with this storm. Which brings my final season total, barring a miracle, to thirteen inches.

[Tom]

Latest updated CPC Outlook for March.  It has below normal temps now pulling back farther into the Plains.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

[Maxim]

Pretty wild look... bye bye SE ridge?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[winterfreak]

Heaviest snow all season right now.

[Hawkeye]

Latest updated CPC Outlook for March.  It has below normal temps now pulling back farther into the Plains.

 

At least a little below normal March weather would be a heck of a lot warmer than way below normal February weather.

[Tom]

At least a little below normal March weather would be a heck of a lot warmer than way below normal February weather.

10-15F below normal in Feb feels whole lot different in March!  Meantime, 00z GFS keeps trending colder for early the following week and wants to bring a Clipper into the Great Lakes on March 9th.

 

Meantime, 00z GFS says bye bye to the long awaited "warm up".  I remember last week the GFS had a huge warm up for the central CONUS that was going to start next Monday.  A week has gone by and now we are seeing a trough where there was a ridge being forecast.  Just another reason why I still believe Spring isn't coming here anytime soon.  Spring to me is sustained temps in the 50's/60's, not 20's/30's with frozen precip.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

10-15F below normal in Feb feels whole lot different in March!  Meantime, 00z GFS keeps trending colder for early the following week and wants to bring a Clipper into the Great Lakes on March 9th.

 

Meantime, 00z GFS says bye bye to the long awaited "warm up".  I remember last week the GFS had a huge warm up for the central CONUS that was going to start next Monday.  A week has gone by and now we are seeing a trough where there was a ridge being forecast.  Just another reason why I still believe Spring isn't coming here anytime soon.  Spring to me is sustained temps in the 50's/60's, not 20's/30's with frozen precip.

 

I agree that it's not prudent to buy into the warmth the long range was showing for awhile.  On the Ensembles, we were talking warmth not coming in until 240 hours or so, and we've seen that much of this winter only for it to frequently be a mirage.

[Tom]

Wouldn't be surprised to see an Omega Block develop this month say around day 10-15 like we had in December.  Could see some bowling ball type systems after the 10th-12th of the month.  Sometime around March 17th-20th period we will see the Super Bowl storm cycle through.  Very curious to see what happens during this cycle.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Wouldn't be surprised to see an Omega Block develop this month say around day 10-15 like we had in December.  Could see some bowling ball type systems after the 10th-12th of the month.  Sometime around March 17th-20th period we will see the Super Bowl storm cycle through.  Very curious to see what happens during this cycle.

 

I'm ready for spring, one storm over 4" here and it looks to stay that way.  I think you're going to be the one of the only ones pushing for storms mid March and beyond

[GDR]

[Maxim]

Still thinking March ends up around average in terms of temps. Just my opinion though.

[Tom]

I'm ready for spring, one storm over 4" here and it looks to stay that way.  I think you're going to be the one of the only ones pushing for storms mid March and beyond

Bowling Ball systems do not necessarily mean Snowstorms, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one or two if they show up.

[gosaints]

EURO races the cold air out of here by hour 114 or so.

[GDR]

About dang time!

[Hawkeye]

The real mild air doesn't arrive until beyond day 10, but all the models are showing it.  We may not be getting the big snow this weekend and midweek like models were suggesting last week, but now when the mild air moves in we won't have to melt nearly as much snow.

[gosaints]

The real mild air doesn't arrive until beyond day 10, but all the models are showing it. We may not be getting the big snow this weekend and midweek like models were suggesting last week, but now when the mild air moves in we won't have to melt nearly as much snow.

Ya looks like quite a boring stretch coming up after this storm

[Tom]

Next weekend may finally "feel" like Spring around here when clocks Spring Forward an hour (which also means models will come in 1 hour later) and temps should climb back to "normal"!  I bet that will feel a whole lot better after another frigid couple days this coming Wed/Thu.

[Maxim]

Wednesday night will be the last sub zero low of the season.

[Tom]

Wednesday night will be the last sub zero low of the season.

Don't jinx yourself!  Earlier last week you wanted no more sub-zero temps and we got 2 more and another one possible Wednesday night!  J/K...haha

[Tom]

1st day of Meteorological Spring and 63.4% of the nation covered by snow.  Every state except FL has snow on the ground.  Very impressive.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015030105_National.jpg

[tim the weatherman]

1st day of Meteorological Spring and 63.4% of the nation covered by snow.  Every state except FL has snow on the ground.  Very impressive.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015030105_National.jpg

some of it will be melted by this week into next week and beyond so the snowpack will dwindlled awat by april.

[Tom]

Using the East Asian Theory, we might have to be on the look out for a major trough Week 2...right around the 14th.  GFS has been showing this pattern near Japan for a few days now.

[Maxim]

some of it will be melted by this week into next week and beyond so the snowpack will dwindlled awat by april.

It will be April, of course all the snow will be gone by then for most areas....

[FarmerRick]

1st day of Meteorological Spring and 63.4% of the nation covered by snow.  Every state except FL has snow on the ground.  Very impressive.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201503/nsm_depth_2015030105_National.jpg

 

I don't know how they get their info, but except for left-over drifts and snow piles in parking lots, it's as dry and brown as can be in the Omaha area. Same as it has been nearly all winter.  

[gosaints]

384 hours of nothingness on the GEFS GFS and EURO

[gosaints]

Still need about 18 inches of snow to reach normal here

[Hawkeye]

So much for winter going out with a bang.  Last week's impressive model predictions for the weekend and midweek systems dropping huge snow on Iowa were ridiculously wrong.  Now it's looking pretty dead for the next week or two.

 

There was a lot of talk about the February into March pattern being very active with a lot of potential for some good storms, but the arctic blaster was too strong and the pattern too suppressed.  Maybe if the cold comes back later in the month there can be a biggie somewhere around here.

[GDR]

Birds were chirping like crazy this mornin, man I hope spring is on its way!

[FV-Mike]

From Tim McGill@WGN

 

Season snowfall total at O'Hare 43.6 inches. This more than doubles Anchorage, AK at 20.5 inches. Anchorage is running 40" below for the season

[gosaints]

Still thinking March ends up around average in terms of temps. Just my opinion though.

Still think chicago gets as warm as nebraska? Lakes area gonna be stuck in crap

[BLIZZARD09]

Time for the fat lady to sing for this winter, Except for the ghd blizzard it has been a cold  and boring season . Is it just me or can anyone remember a winter where the models kept holding out such promise and the weather delivering so little?

[gosaints]

GGEM and GFS both look nice next week hope it holds on.  GGEM warms it up quick.  I think its to quick 

[james1976]

Is what it is. I'd love more snow but I'm not gonna complain if it gets to 70 soon and we get t-storms

[CentralNebWeather]

Our brown winter looks to continue.  I didn't think it could be worse than last year but I was wrong.  Our storm predicted over a week ago gave us 0 again.  Need a pattern shift for more moisture or the drought will come back again.  Really frustrated like most Nebraskans and now it sounds like others on the board.

[NEJeremy]

The nice thing about it being dry in winter is having a deficit in precip really isn't that detrimental especially compared to no rain in spring/summer. Also of course, having a dry winter doesn't correlate with a pattern or precip amounts in the spring/summer as we saw last year here. We were fine moisture wise. Still a disappointing winter for sure. Those warm temps next week have me excited though!

[gosaints]

GEFS basically on board as well